Lucky Week 13 on the NCAAF odds slate includes a lucky 13 games on Black Friday, and our handicapper has come up with his three best bets for your consideration.
Picks Summary
- Iowa-Nebraska Over 26½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- UTSA ML (+135) at Bet365
- Air Force +6½ (-110) at BetRivers
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Friday, November 24, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium
It’s difficult to convince anyone there are games in the Big Ten this weekend that don’t involve Michigan and Ohio State, but there are. One takes place in Nebraska where the Cornhuskers seek an upset of the Iowa Hawkeyes, who have already earned a spot in the conference championship against either the Wolverines or Buckeyes.
Lowest Total on Week 13 Board
This one is showing up right around a pick on the NCAAF odds, with some of the top sportsbooks favoring Iowa by a point and others leaning a point towards Nebraska. The game is also carrying one of those throwback totals to the days of the single wing: 27.
Iowa’s last contest just went ‘over’ 27 points, a 15-13 win against Illinois to lock up the Big Ten West Division. The Hawkeyes’ previous four games failed reach the 27-point plateau.
Nebraska dropped a 24-17 overtime decision at Wisconsin in Week 12, marking the third consecutive loss for the Cornhuskers and just the third one of the last six games to go past 27.
‘Dogs Cover Last 5 Meetings
Nebraska pulled off a sizeable upset in Iowa City a year ago, building a 24-0 lead and then holding on for a 24-17 triumph. The Hawkeyes were favored by 11, but four turnovers did them in as the contest got past a 38-point total by a field goal.
The win halted a string of 7-straight wins for Iowa in the rivalry. The Hawkeyes are 8-4 since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, ‘over’ bettors collecting in seven of the last eight matchups.
Nebraska was without quarterback and leading rusher Heinrich Haarberg (ankle) in the loss to the Badgers last week, and the sophomore is questionable for this one. It’s going to be a chilly afternoon in Lincoln, with the high only topping the freezing mark by a few degrees. The ‘over’ should also top the total by just a few points.
NCAAF Pick: Over 26½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Tulane Green Wave
Friday, November 24, 2023 – 03:30 PM ET at Yulman Stadium
Sporting unbeaten records in the AAC, UTSA and Tulane meet in New Orleans to decide who goes to the conference title game. Sharp sportsbooks are favoring the Green Wave by a field goal with 52 for the total.
Schools Meet for Just 2nd Time
Texas-San Antonio arrives in the Big Easy on a 7-game win streak, which is impressive until you take into account the 9-game win streak for the Green Wave. Both are coming off covers as well, the Roadrunners racing past USF 49-21 while Tulane beat FAU 24-9 on the road.
The Roadrunners and Green Wave are meeting for just the second time, the first coming 10 years ago when the two schools were both part of Conference USA. That contest took place in San Antonio, and was an unexpected defensive struggle as UTSA kicked a field goal in the waning seconds for a 10-7 victory.
My college football pick is on an outright upset, taking the Roadrunners on the moneyline.
NCAAF Pick: UTSA ML (+135) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Air Force Falcons vs. Boise State Broncos
Friday, November 24, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at Albertsons Stadium
Give the schedule-maker in the Mountain West credit for a job well done. The final weekend of the regular season finds the top 4 teams in the conference going head-to-head, and the battle between Air Force and Boise State could determine one-half of the MWC Championship in two weeks.
Broncos 4-1 ATS at Home
Like most reputable shops, BetRivers is favoring Boise State by 6½ and splitting the juice on both teams evenly. On what should be a sunny afternoon on the smurf turf in Boise, the scoreboard target is 46½.
The Falcons have dropped three in a row after an 8-0 start to the campaign, and stand 5-6 ATS and O/U. The Broncos have won two in a row to get back into the MWC race.
Favorites Have Covered Just 3 of Last 10 Meetings
The entire history of this rivalry has taken place in the last 12 years, with Boise State winning seven of the previous 11 matchups. Last year’s clash in Colorado Springs was the lowest-scoring of them all, as the Broncos posted a 19-14 win as 2-point road underdogs.
It’s not unusual for bettors on the underdog to end up holding winning tickets, with favorites covering just three times in the last 10 contests. In fact, the underdog has won outright in six of the last 10. The last two in Boise came up short of the totals.
Let’s close our Black Friday picks with a play on the underdog Falcons in a 28-24 Boise State win.
NCAAF Pick: Air Force +6½ (-110) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
