The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for this week’s NFL action, and three games interest me: Lions vs. Bears, Broncos vs. Chargers, and Packers vs. Giants.
For your best bets, I will recommend that you wager on all three underdogs. I personally like to invest three-quarters of a unit in the underdog ATS and the remaining quarter in the underdog ML.
Picks Summary
- Bears ML (+145)
- Broncos ML (+130)
- Giants ML (+235)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 01: 00 PM ET at Soldier Field
Lions Against Mobile Quarterbacks
Detroit will give up a lot of points on Sunday because it regularly struggles against mobile quarterbacks.
When these two teams last played, on November 19 in Detroit, the Lions allowed 26 points.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields was efficient through the air and especially effective on the ground where he amassed 104 yards on 18 carries.
It’s not just Fields, either. On October 22, Detroit suffered its worst loss of the season, in Baltimore. The Lions gave up 38 points, allowing Lamar Jackson for the Ravens to punish Detroit for focusing on taking away his running game.
Lamar amassed 357 passing yards on 21-of-27 passing and three passing touchdowns.
Detroit’s Defense, Lately
The Lions have been vulnerable on especially defense lately.
In their last four games, they allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears, 29 to the Packers, and 28 to the Saints. With Aaron Glenn as its defensive coordinator, opposing pass attacks are regularly carving up Detroit’s secondary.
Fields is a great candidate to pass well because, whereas the Lions have regressed defensively, he has improved relative to his start of the season.
Passing the ball, he is more efficient and is avoiding mistakes. Whereas he threw five interceptions in his first four games, he threw one in his last four.
Chicago’s Defense
The Bears have also improved tremendously on defense. They just held the Vikings to ten points in their last game, intercepting their quarterback Josh Dobbs four times in the process.
The secondary is healthy and well-laden with ball-hawks. Chicago’s defensive backs also receive good help from a front seven that is gelling.
After being acquired from the Commanders, Montez Sweat is making an immediate impact with 2.5 sacks in his last two games.
NFL Pick: Bears +3 (+100) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Bears ML (+145) at Bet365
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Home Field…Advantage?
Oddsmakers have the Chargers favored because they are playing at home. But does playing at home really make a positive difference for them?
They’ve played six home games so far and won only two of them: they beat the Raiders by seven and Chicago – with its no-name backup quarterback – by 17. Against teams who don’t have a losing record, the Chargers are 0-4 at home.
Improved Denver
While the Broncos are only 6-6, they’ve improved tremendously. They won five games in a row – against the Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, and Browns – before losing a tight game at 7-5 Houston.
The key here is that their defense is a lot more effective. They are doing a better job against the run, which is creating more difficult passing situations for opponents on third down, where Denver has improved its ability to get opposing offenses off the field.
Denver is also creating more turnovers and mounting more resistance in the red zone. Personnel-wise, the health of key defenders including Justin Simmons at safety and Josey Jewell at linebacker have been critical against both the pass and the run.
Despite facing tough offenses in their last six games, the Broncos have allowed 22 points twice and 22 or fewer points four times.
Denver’s Rushing Offense
The Chargers are a team that Denver can run on. They just allowed 148 rushing yards to a New England team that, especially without its top wide receiver, posed almost no threat through the air.
This performance is consistent with the recent overall decline in their run defense, which is further evident in their game against the Ravens, who amassed almost 200 rushing yards, two weeks ago.
In their win against the Chiefs, for example, the Broncos demonstrated a proclivity to lean on the run. Javonte Williams will help them sustain drives, and he is always capable of some chunk plays.
Russell Wilson
Denver also owes its improvement to the stronger play of quarterback Russell Wilson.
He is regularly efficient and aptly distributes the ball to different targets, although he loves finding especially Courtland Sutton in the end zone, giving the Broncos a reliable target when they reach the red zone.
Wilson is primed to bounce back, especially against a Chargers team that ranks second-to-last against the pass.
NFL Pick: Broncos +3 (-120) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Broncos ML (+130) at Bet365
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants
Monday, December 11, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Giants’ Defensive Improvement
Relative to the start of the season, the Giants have improved significantly on defense.
This improvement is especially apparent at home, where they allow 18.2 points per game, compared to 28.7 points per game on the road. For example, whereas they allowed 19 points in Washington, they allowed seven points at home to the same Commanders offense.
Regardless of where they play, though, they are doing several things better. For example, they are allowing fewer explosive plays, making opposing offenses really earn their points.
This is relevant as Green Bay has relied on some big plays, especially to Christian Watson, who is anyhow struggling with one of those notoriously pesky hamstring injuries. Moreover, they’ve been more resistant on third downs, as part of which they are smarter about blitzing.
Jordan Love ranks a miserable 31st in completion percentage under pressure, so expect the Giants to come after him like they came after Washington’s Sam Howell so effectively.
Tommy DeVito
The Giants have won two straight, as they are gaining momentum with new starting quarterback Tommy DeVito.
Throwing four interceptions to zero interceptions in his past two games combined, DeVito is clearly comfortable now. He is more efficient and more productive, making use of the growth of big-play threat Jalin Hyatt as well as the speed of Wan’Dale Robinson, who can quickly get open for him.
Green Bay will be particularly vulnerable in the back, especially if its top cornerback, Jaire Alexander, remains injured – he has already missed the past four games.
But the Packers are weakest against the run. They rank 30th in run defense, making them a vulnerable target for Giants star Saquon Barkley, who is always a big threat and who also had accrued three games in a row of 5.1 or more YPC before last week.
Green Bay’s Spot
There are two bonus considerations that favor the Giants.
One is the let-down potential for Green Bay following its massive wins over the Lions and Chiefs.
The other is that the Packers remain rather unproven on the road, where they’ve only won in Week 1 at their perennial punching bag Chicago’s venue and at Detroit on Thanksgiving – the Lions always lose on Thanksgiving.
NFL Pick: Giants +6.5 (-110) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Giants ML (+235) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
