The NFL’s Week 15 schedule has some prime-time games where backup quarterbacks could be under the spotlight again:
- On Sunday night, the Jacksonville Jaguars are trying to avoid a 3-game losing streak against the Baltimore Ravens.
- On Monday night, the Philadelphia Eagles also need to avoid a 3-game losing streak as they take on the Seattle Seahawks, who may be without Geno Smith again.
- On Thursday night, the Los Angeles Chargers could be without Justin Herbert for the first time due to injury as they take on the Las Vegas Raiders.
We made our top pick for each prime-time game in Week 15, and you can find the best odds at top sportsbooks using OddsTrader.
Picks Summary
- Ravens-Jaguars Over 43.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Chargers-Raiders Under 33.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Eagles -3.5 (-110) at Bet365
Eagles Back on Track?
The Philadelphia Eagles were skating on thin ice at 10-1 with a 9-1 record in close games. They ran into a couple of buzzsaws the last 2 weeks in the 49ers and Cowboys, teams that are used to winning blowouts. They lost both matchups by 20 points and now face a road test in Seattle during what may be a good time since the Seahawks have lost 4 in a row.
The Eagles are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 47.5 points. Is this a good spot for the Eagles to get back on track as the No. 1 seed is still within grasp?
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle Seahawks
Monday, December 18, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Lumen Field
Philadelphia’s “Static Offense” Good Enough?
When a team loses back-to-back games by 20 points to their main contenders in the conference, you get a lot of questions and doubts. Now people are attacking the Eagles’ style of offense that is too static, uses the lowest rate of pre-snap motion in the league, and primarily relies on Jalen Hurts to elevate things as a runner in a passing game that sticks to only 3 targets (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert).
But hasn’t that same offensive scheme and setup been successful enough to go to the Super Bowl last year and start 10-1 this season? The record this year may have been misleadingly good, but the Eagles were finding ways to score. The bigger issue that needs correcting right now is the defense taking a much bigger step back from last year.
Running a “static” offense is not a bad thing if you run it well. Peyton Manning and the Colts did this to perfection in the 2000s as you often knew exactly where Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne would line up, and they rarely changed formations and personnel. They just used their talent to beat the defense with Manning adjusting things pre-snap. That worked for many years.
The league is a little different now, but you can still succeed with this type of offense. Fortunately, the Seahawks are very much a “do what we do” defense under Pete Carroll, so you should expect to see Hurts and his receivers have much better days after failing to score a touchdown in Dallas. That was also a game where they lost 3 fumbles, so that is unlikely to happen again.
Seattle Is Fading Fast
Once 5-2, the Seahawks are 6-7 with only a 29-26 home win over Washington to show for it lately. The offense has taken a big step back from last year, and after playing a few elite teams like the Cowboys and 49ers, the defense has also slipped behind last year’s marks that were bad to begin with.
The Seahawks are fading fast, and if they lose this game, it is hard to see them recovering for a playoff run. They gave it a great shot in Dallas but still came up short. Now Geno Smith has a groin injury and did not play last week. Drew Lock did an admirable job in his place, but he is not a guy you can count on to beat the good teams. Smith is not a lock to return for this one either.
Seattle just doesn’t have anything to hang its hat on right now. The running game is too inconsistent, Smith has taken a step back, and the defense remains poor. The offense and defense both rank 22nd or worse on 3rd down and in the red zone, so the situational play has been poor too.
The Pick
Feels like a classic bounce-back game for the Eagles to show the sky isn’t falling. While they did get crushed in Dallas last week, the Eagles are 5-2 on the road this year with all wins by at least 4 points.
We’ll trust Philadelphia to save face for the No. 1 seed race and get a big win in Seattle to finish your NFL picks for Week 15.
NFL Pick: Eagles -3.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
What Are the Chargers Without Justin Herbert?
With 5-8 records, the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders are likely done in the crowded AFC playoff race with only 4 games to go. They also have quarterback issues with Justin Herbert injuring his finger in Sunday’s game, and the Raiders lost a 3-0 game at home to the Vikings.
But with Herbert likely out, the Raiders are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 33.5 points. Is this total another trap like last week’s Pittsburgh-New England game with backup quarterbacks, or are these teams doomed to score too?
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Thursday, December 14, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Chargers Without Herbert
This should be an interesting experiment as Justin Herbert was one of the last ironmen left at quarterback. He’s never missed a start due to injury since 2020, but it looks like a fractured finger on his throwing hand is going to end his streak.
The Chargers have Easton Stick to start in his place, and he got a little taste of action against Denver on Sunday. He was able to lead a 94-yard touchdown drive, but that proved to be the only scoring drive of the day for the Chargers.
Stick comes in at a bad time as the Chargers are 1-4 over the last 5 games. The running game has been inconsistent at best, if not poor. Austin Ekeler is usually a better receiver than he is on the ground.
The Chargers have not scored more than 10 points in 3 straight games, a streak that has not happened for the team since 1997. That means they even survived the Ryan Leaf era, one of the biggest draft busts ever, without having a scoring drought like this.
It has been dropped passes and turnovers that have sunk the Chargers as of late, and that feels like something that could only get worse with a backup quarterback with almost no experience.
Really, 3-0 Indoors?
The Raiders played one of the wildest games in NFL history as it looked like they might go to overtime with no points on the board against the Vikings. It was not until the 2-minute warning when the Vikings finally kicked a field goal to get some points on the board, and the Raiders turned it over in response.
It is the 2nd-longest game to go scoreless in the NFL since 1978, so we were in historic territory with that one. No game has ended 0-0 since a 1943 tie back in the day when overtime didn’t exist.
The Raiders were down 24-7 to the Chargers when they met in Week 4, but the defense pitched a 2nd-half shutout and rookie Aidan O’Connell had a shot at a comeback win in his first start. But he threw a late pick that was costly in the 24-17 loss.
But O’Connell also took 7 sacks in that game as Khalil Mack alone had 6 sacks against his former team. You can count on Mack to be extra juiced for this game as he usually is when he faces the Raiders.
The Pick
You like to think high scoring when these teams play, but we’re talking about a short week with Easton Stick and Aidan O’Connell after a couple of the worst scoring outputs in each franchise’s history this past weekend.
Maybe it’s another trap like last week’s under in Steelers-Patriots, but we’ll play the odds and bank on these teams struggling through a rough game that goes under 33.5 points. Even 20-13 would be fine and probably not a bad game to watch.
NFL Pick: Under 33.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Ravens and Jaguars Show Some Defensive Vulnerability
The Baltimore Ravens escaped with a 37-31 overtime win against the Rams last week in a game that exceeded scoring expectations. The Jaguars also played in a 31-27 game with Cleveland that felt like it lasted all afternoon. It was the 4th-straight Jacksonville game to go over 44.5 points.
The Ravens are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 43.5 points. After last year’s matchup ended up 28-27 in a comeback win, can the Jaguars light up the scoreboard at home and help this hit the over too?
Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Jacksonville’s Struggles
The Jaguars have been a volatile scoring team this season on both sides of the ball. But the fact is the most points the Jaguars have allowed in 2023 have all been home games against playoff contenders. The Texans (37), Bengals (34), and 49ers (34) all scored at least 34 points in Jacksonville.
Jacksonville also allowed 31 points in Cleveland last week with Joe Flacco tossing 3 touchdowns to very open receivers as he also had 300 yards passing. The Jaguars fought back with 27 points in another high-scoring loss. It was the 4th game in a row where Jacksonville saw its total go over 44.5 points.
The Jaguars also played a 25-20 game in London against the Bills, another contender. It was really only that 17-9 loss to Kansas City in Week 2 that was a low-scoring dud with this team, and that’s because we are witnessing the Bizarro Chiefs in 2023.
Simply put, the Jaguars cannot be trusted to hold down a good team on the scoreboard. We saw it last year with the 28-27 and 40-34 games against the Ravens and Cowboys. They were able to come back and win those games, but we’re just looking at the totals here. They also of course had a 31-30 comeback win in the playoffs against the Chargers.
The Jaguars are tied for a league-high 24 takeaways on defense, but it hasn’t stopped them from allowing an excessive number of points in many games.
Baltimore’s Offense Is Hot
The Ravens are the No. 4 scoring team at 27.8 points per game, and we said team because that number includes their amazing 76-yard punt return touchdown to beat the Rams last week. No one knew who Tylan Wallace was before that play, the 4th walk-off punt return in overtime history.
It was the 6th time this season the Ravens scored at least 31 points in a game, and that’s notable since it has been 6-of-7 games going into Sunday night. Lamar Jackson is getting comfortable with this offense even as he misses tight end Mark Andrews (injury reserve). But Isaiah Likely is a fine replacement, and he still has Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. Not to mention a consistent running game thanks in part to his dual-threat talents.
The Ravens should post a good number on this struggling Jacksonville defense that has been exposed by Flacco and Browning the last 2 weeks.
The Pick
Holding the lead is a different story for the Ravens. We saw them blow a 9-point lead in the 4th quarter last year in a 28-27 loss in Jacksonville. Another game with that exciting of a finish would be great, but overall we think the best bet in this game is for the over to hit, even if it takes a 24-20 finish or a 34-10 blowout.
NFL Pick: Over 43.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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