The NFL’s Week 16 schedule has a few critical matchups for the playoffs. The Detroit Lions are a win away from claiming the NFC North. We are also looking at Seattle on the road in Tennessee and the Cardinals taking a trip to Chicago.
We combed through the OddsTrader computer picks and found 3 of our favorite bets that you can find at top-rated sportsbooks for Week 16.
Picks Summary
- Titans +2.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Cardinals-Bears Under 44.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Lions-Vikings Under 47 (-109) at BetRivers
Seattle Letdown?
The Seattle Seahawks pulled off a thrilling comeback win against the Eagles on Monday night, but they have a short week to play an early game in Tennessee. The Titans lost another tough one in overtime to the Texans last week.
The Seahawks are a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 41.5 points. We are looking at the spread in what figures to be a close game.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
Did Seattle Play Well Last Week?
The Seahawks had a fun 20-17 comeback win against the Eagles on Monday night, but they also led for just 28 seconds in the game. The Eagles led in most statistical categories, but Jalen Hurts did not close well with 2 interceptions in the 4th quarter of what was perhaps a flu game for him.
The Eagles just needed to make a stop, but Drew Lock pulled off what is the league’s 4th game-winning touchdown drive since 2001 that came in the last 2 minutes, down a touchdown, with 90-plus yards to go. The stuff you could only believe in a script, especially when it’s Drew Lock at quarterback.
But the good news is Geno Smith should probably be back for this game since he was technically active on Monday night and close to playing. Smith is more accurate than Lock, but he is not without fault this year.
The Titans have intercepted a league-low 4 passes this year, so maybe they are due for some positive regression there. The Seahawks are 0-6 when scoring fewer than 20 points this year with most of those games on the road. Seattle has not topped 20 points in 4-of-5 games going into Sunday.
Titans Looking to Rebound
The Titans have had an interesting month with wins over Carolina and that shocking comeback in Miami, and they have lost in overtime at home to the Colts and Texans.
Derrick Henry had the most unusual game of his career against Houston, a team he has dominated, last week when he produced just 10 scrimmage yards on 20 touches. No player in NFL history has ever had that many touches for that low yardage. He needs to bounce back.
Rookie quarterback Will Levis also took his share of shots in that game as the Titans blew a 13-0 lead. The Seahawks have not played very good defense this year, so this could be a game where Henry gets back on track and Levis is able to find DeAndre Hopkins more consistently after that connection struggled with the Texans.
The Pick
General rule of thumb is to consider fading the team coming off a crazy Monday night win that has to play on the road the next week, especially when it is a Pacific team playing an early body clock game.
The Titans generally do well as an underdog under Mike Vrabel, and the close score from the computer prediction sounds exactly like something you’d expect in a game between Vrabel and Pete Carroll, a pair of gluttons for clutch moments. We’ll take the Titans to cover.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 22 – Titans 20
NFL Pick: Titans +2.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Chicago’s Defense Trustworthy Right Now?
The Chicago Bears have played some better defense in recent weeks, holding 4-of-5 opponents to 20 points or fewer. They have played even better at home, which should be an advantage in late December against the warm-blooded Cardinals, who haven’t scored much on the road this year. But it might be near 50 degrees at kickoff.
The Bears are a 4.5-point home favorite with a total of 44.5 points. That spread feels a bit high for an unreliable team like Chicago, so we are going to focus on the total.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Soldier Field
Arizona’s Offense vs. Chicago’s Defense
Even though the Cardinals lost to the 49ers last week, they did make a little history in the process. Arizona became the first home team in NFL history to rush for over 200 yards, score over 28 points, and still lose the game by more than 14 points.
That tells you how good the 49ers are, but the Bears are obviously not on that level. But Chicago does have a very good run defense, ranked No. 1 in yards allowed and No. 3 in yards per carry against. Kyler Murray can get his scramble yards if he wants, but the Cardinals may not find much room to run in this matchup.
As for the pass defense, the Bears are not as stellar there, but they have intercepted 18 passes, the 2nd-highest total this season. Quarterbacks only average 6.8 yards per pass against this defense, a solid number in 2023.
Detroit is the only team to rush for 100 yards in Chicago this year, and that was still a game where the Lions scored 13 points and turned it over 3 times in a 28-13 loss. The Bears have improved their pass rush since trading for Montez Sweat from the Commanders as he has 6.5 sacks since the trade deadline alone.
We like the Bears’ chances to keep the Cardinals under 20 points at home.
Justin Fields Still Not Getting It Done
The Bears have a possibly difficult decision to make with quarterback Justin Fields after the season. Do they trade him, or do they keep him and draft another quarterback with their super-high draft picks that are coming their way?
Fields is still not excelling enough as a passer. While his 2 interceptions against Cleveland came on Hail Mary attempts, the last which could have been caught to win the game, he only averaged 4.2 yards per pass. His only touchdown drive was a 5-yard drive thanks to the defense getting a pick. His defense also had a pick-6, so he barely led the offense to more than 3 points if you want to be technical and accurate about his performance in last week’s loss.
Detroit (twice) is the only team the Bears have scored more than 17 points against in their last 7 games. Arizona’s defense is filled with no-name players, but it has held 4-of-7 road opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Bears are not clicking in the running game like they were a year ago either, so it has put some strain on Fields to do more as a passer, which he has not achieved.
The Pick
In 6-of-7 road games for Arizona this year, the total did not surpass 37 points. The computer score may even be too high for this one as these are not strong offenses and neither quarterback comes in playing that well. Trust the under to hit as the Bears will shut down the run, the only thing the 49ers failed to do to Arizona last week.
Score Prediction: Bears 24 – Cardinals 18
NFL Pick: Under 44.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Lions Can Win NFC North
Never thought we’d see the day, but the Detroit Lions can clinch the NFC North in Week 16 with a win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions made short work of Denver last week to improve to 10-4, giving them a shot at the No. 1 seed too. The Vikings (7-7) lost in overtime in Cincinnati and plan to start backup quarterback Nick Mullens again.
The Lions are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 47 points. We are looking at the under.
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Jared Goff vs. Brian Flores’ Defense
The last 3 meetings between these teams have all gone over 51.5 points, but that was with Kirk Cousins at quarterback and a different defensive coordinator for the Vikings. This is a bit different with Nick Mullens, and it would be in Minnesota’s best interest to not get into a shootout.
The Vikings are 1-6 when allowing 20 points this year and 6-1 when allowing fewer than 20 points. This is why the game is largely up to new Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores to create an exotic game plan to throw off Jared Goff and this high-powered attack.
Flores’ defense is very unique as he takes a bend-but-don’t-break approach he learned from Bill Belichick and applies it to where the Vikings blitz more than any defense and also rush 3 defenders while dropping 8 into coverage more than any defense. The quarterback is often left guessing if it’s going to be a pressure or substandard rush.
You can argue with the results in certain games, but it probably has helped the defense achieve a solid ranking in points allowed (No. 7) after losing so many veterans in the offseason.
The Lions have shown some problems with turning the ball over this year, and the Vikings will likely need to get some takeaways to win this game. The Vikings are 5-1 when forcing multiple turnovers this year. But to Detroit’s credit, this is hit or miss for them. The Lions have 5 games with at least 3 turnovers and 9 games with no more than 1 giveaway.
Can Nick Mullens Avoid Turnovers?
If the Vikings want to win this game, they better get Nick Mullens to cut down the turnovers. He has been a turnover machine in his career, which negates some of his impact at moving the ball surprisingly well.
In Cincinnati last week, Mullens threw arguably the funniest pick of the year before halftime when he tried so hard to throw a ball away to avoid a sack that he put it right on an interior defensive lineman who was sitting on the ground.
Mullens turning it over against Detroit and giving up short fields for easy touchdowns is a nightmare for the under here. But hopefully he settles in while making his first home start for the team.
Detroit’s defense has not been playing well but it did hold Denver to 17 points last week.
The Pick
The Lions probably should still win this game, but you never know with divisional matchups on the road. It also is late in the year for a first meeting between rivals like this, and the Vikings have not put a lot of tape out there on what Mullens looks like in this offense.
We think a tough defensive battle is more apt for a game like this with a division title on the line than any aerial show and shootout. We’ll take the under for your NFL picks as the Lions try to wrap up the division by Christmas.
Score Prediction: Lions 23 – Vikings 22
NFL Pick: Under 47 (-109) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
