The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for this Week 16 in the NFL, and three games particularly interest me: Green Bay vs. Carolina, Jacksonville vs. Tampa Bay, and Dallas vs. Miami.
Let’s look at why you should bet on the underdogs.
I personally like to invest three-quarters of a unit in the underdog ATS and the remaining quarter in the underdog ML.
Picks Summary
- Panthers ML (+185)
- Jaguars ML (-110)
- Cowboys ML (+105)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
Packers on the Road
The key angle for this game is that the Packers are worth fading in road games. They’ve won two road games all year: the first took place in their second home, Chicago, while their second road win took place in Detroit, on Thanksgiving – the Lions never win in Thanksgiving.
While one might try to make an argument along the lines that “the Panthers never win,” this argument doesn’t hold water especially after last week. Both of Carolina’s wins this year came at home, the first being against playoff-hopeful Houston and the second coming against another team with a realistic chance at winning its division, Atlanta.
Looking at these teams objectively, and not even accounting for its road struggles, Green Bay is not too difficult at all for the Panthers to beat.
Carolina’s Run Defense
The quality of Carolina’s run defense is a crucial talking point. This is because, in order to win, the Panthers have to hold their opponent to a low-scoring output.
This season, the biggest reason why Carolina’s defense would struggle in a game is because of the opponent’s rush attack. However, the performance of the Panthers’ rush defense last week against Atlanta was so good as to be historic.
Carolina allowed 52 rushing yards on 31 carries, amounting to 1.68 YPC, which is the third-lowest YPC average that it’s allowed in a game in the history of its franchise. Despite his dismal output, Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson is still averaging 4.6 YPC, but he only mustered 1.6 YPC against the Panthers.
Carolina’s Pass Defense
As for defending the pass, this is Carolina’s strength. The Panthers rank third in pass defense. They held Dallas’ Dak Prescott, for example, to 189 passing yards on 35 pass attempts.
Carolina’s Rush Attack
The Panthers will benefit from facing the third-worst rush defense on Sunday. Even a team like Tampa Bay, whose rush offense has been so bad as to be largely replaced by short passes to its running backs, could run effectively against Green Bay’s run defense.
Last week against the Packers, Bucs running back Rachaad White achieved his second-highest rush total of the season.
All of this is great news for Chuba Hubbard, a physical running back who is used to running against stacked boxes.
Panthers’ Pass Attack
Green Bay’s defense has given up a relatively large number of explosive plays. A lot of Green Bay’s difficulty has to do with handling the opponent’s speed.
Enter DJ Chark. Carolina’s wide receiver runs a 4.34, ranking in the 97th percentile in 40-yard dash times. With Chark especially, the Panthers will achieve big plays in its passing game, which will complement their effective rush attack that will help sustain drives consistently.
Now, sometimes Green Bay likes to play with a cushion. A cushion helps lower the chances of Chark going off, but makes it easier for Panthers quarterback Bryce Young to find his favorite target, Adam Thielen and for Carolina’s run game to thrive.
If Green Bay stacks the box, then it exposes itself more greatly to Chark’s big-play threat. The Packers’ defense will struggle no matter what, and yet it can’t afford to struggle given the success that Carolina’s defense will have against Green Bay’s offense.
NFL Pick: Panthers +5 (-110) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Panthers ML (+185) at Bet365
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Jacksonville On The Road
Jacksonville is an underdog because it is on the road. However, the Jaguars have repeatedly proven to be reliable road warriors. In fact, they’ve been more successful away from home than at home.
Their road victims include the Colts, the Saints, the Steelers – before the Steelers’ current meltdown – and the Texans. Those are all playoff-hopeful teams. Three of those teams are tied for having the best record in their respective divisions.
Jacksonville’s Offense
When assessing the current state of Jacksonville’s offense, it’s easy to worry about the absence of Christian Kirk, one of Trevor Lawrence’s favorite targets. However, the Jaguars have been more than fine without him. They scored 27 points in Cleveland, even though the Browns have one of the NFL’s top defenses, especially when they play at home.
Most recently, they did only score seven points against Baltimore. However, that point total is sorely misleading. The Jaguars missed two field goals – it happened to be extremely windy – and fumbled inside the red zone.
Tampa Bay’s Leaky Secondary
Whereas the Ravens have a tough defense, a defense that was playing angry after its rare poor performance in its previous game, Tampa Bay’s is anything but tough. While Baltimore ranks seventh in pass defense, Tampa Bay’s pass defense ranks second-to-last.
The Bucs have a leaky secondary, most recently allowing Green Bay’s quarterback Jordan Love to complete nearly 75 percent of his passes for 284 passing yards and two touchdowns to no interceptions.
Trevor Lawrence and Company
This is a great spot for Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has struggled against strong pass defenses – although he still performed well in New Orleans – but has been reliable against weaker pass defenses. For example, he achieved a 119.5 passer rating against Tennessee’s 22nd-ranked pass defense.
In place of Kirk, Parker Washington and Zay Jones have stepped up. Lawrence also loves relying on tight-end Evan Engram. Calvin Ridley is a bonus threat, a boom-or-bust guy whose superior speed helps make him dangerous downfield.
Running backs Travis Etienne and D’Ernest Johnson are also effective in the pass game, both being useful options for a screen, although Etienne especially is comfortable catching passes in the flats.
Jacksonville’s Defense
It hasn’t been obvious, but Jacksonville’s defense has improved dramatically relative to its catastrophe against Cincinnati in a sleep-walking performance following its big win in division rival Houston. The Jaguars were mostly solid in Cleveland but just blew a few coverages.
Against the Ravens, their pass defense grew still more solid, holding Lamar Jackson to one of his worst passing performances of the season. They gave up 23 points, but their only issue was with Jackson’s mobility, which is something that Tampa Bay’s quarterback Baker Mayfield lacks to the same extent.
Their pass rush is effective, led by two early draft pick edge rushers. As a bonus, they might get their top cornerback Tyson Campbell back.
Takeaway
With a subpar rush attack and facing Jacksonville’s steadier pass defense, Tampa Bay will not surpass Baltimore’s point total. Jacksonville’s offense, though, will break out with Lawrence and his supporting cast in a great spot.
NFL Pick: Jaguars +1 (-115) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Jaguars ML (-110) at Bet365
Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Dallas Off A Loss
It is easy to dismiss Dallas’ chances this week because it looked so bad last week. However, the Cowboys’ poor performance last week provides excellent justification for an investment in Dallas this week.
Dallas is in a great spot because it is coming off a loss. The Cowboys are 3-0 after losing their last game.
After looking awful in a double-digit loss in Arizona, they pummeled New England 38-3. After getting blown out by the 49ers, they won at the Chargers – when the Chargers still had their starting quarterback – showing that they can bounce back on the road. Furthermore, they beat the Giants by 32 points after losing to the Eagles.
Miami’s Bad Spot
Miami looks like a worthy investment after its strong win last week. However, the Dolphins excel at beating up losing teams. Miami has faced three teams with a winning record. The Dolphins lost to all three of those teams by at least a touchdown.
Buffalo beat them by 28. Philadelphia beat them by 14. And, despite traveling much later than Miami did to Germany, the Chiefs won by seven.
Even with a healthy superstar wide receiver in Tyreek Hill, who is listed as ‘questionable’ for this week’s game, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa struggled in these more difficult games.
Miami’s defense was never able to be nearly as good as it needed to be. 10-3 Dallas is just the team to beat Miami.
NFL Pick: Cowboys +1.5 (-110) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Cowboys ML (+105) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
