Thanks to a doubleheader this Monday night, Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season will feature four prime-time games:
- On Thursday night, the Eagles will look to beat the Vikings in impressive fashion after last year’s 24-7 victory in Week 2.
- On Sunday night, Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will attempt to improve to 5-0 as a starter against Bill Belichick’s Patriots.
- On Monday night, the Saints are in Carolina while the Browns travel to Pittsburgh for the later game in a couple of division matchups.
We picked our best bets for the top matchups in Week 2, and you can find the best NFL odds at the top betting sites using OddsTrader.
Picks Summary
- Dallas Goedert Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
- Dolphins-Patriots Under 23.5 1st Half (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Saints 4th Quarter ML (-107) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Steelers ML (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Dallas Goedert Won’t Get Another Bagel
While the Eagles won in Week 1 in New England, it was not the prettiest game. The offense let the Patriots hang around, and Mac Jones was very close to pulling off a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minute in the 25-20 final. One notable element in the box score was tight end Dallas Goedert failing to catch any passes despite playing 61 snaps.
The Eagles are a 7-point home favorite with a total of 49 points.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Thursday, September 14, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Lincoln Financial Field
Déjà -Vu
We have seen this before with the Eagles. DeVonta Smith started the 2022 season with no catches on 4 targets in Detroit despite the Eagles scoring 38 points in a win. The next week against Minnesota, a bad pass defense, Smith caught all 7 of his targets for 80 yards in a 24-7 win.
You might say bet on Smith again, but this is about getting on track with Goedert against a defense that is vulnerable at all levels of the field. Jalen Hurts passed for 333 yards on 26-of-31 passing, his highest completion percentage in a game. There will be plenty of yards to spread around as the high total suggests.
Bounce Back Trend?
With Goedert, he has bounced back well from quiet games since Nick Sirianni became head coach in 2021. In Goedert’s last 9 games with under 30 receiving yards, here is the total he had in receiving yards in the following game: 66, 70, 62, 105, 71, 72, 64, 67, and 60 yards.
That is 9 straight times of Goedert going over 60 yards after being held under 30 yards. Feels pretty safe against a pass defense that made Baker Mayfield look decent last week in his first game with the Buccaneers.
The Pick
Plus, we know the Eagles want a much sharper performance at home after Week 1’s underwhelming performance. Goedert caught 5-of-6 targets for 82 yards against the Vikings last year. We can trust him again in this matchup.
NFL Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
Veteran Defensive Coaches Meet in New England
The Dolphins may have hired veteran Vic Fangio to be their defensive coordinator, but he escaped in the shootout of the week, stopping Justin Herbert and the Chargers on the final drive of a 36-34 win. Things should look much different in a division game in New England against Bill Belichick’s Patriots, who hung in there tough with the superior Eagles in a 25-20 loss.
The Patriots are a 2.5-point home underdog with a total of 46.5 points. We are focusing on the 1st half total (over/under 23.5).
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, September 17, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
Zig-Zag
Often when they zig, you have to zag in this week-to-week league. In Week 1, these teams played in the only games where both teams scored more than 10 points before halftime. The Patriots trailed the Eagles 16-14 after getting back into the game after an awful start, and the Dolphins led 20-17 in Los Angeles in that shootout with the Chargers.
Division Rivals
That was fun, but now you get a new challenge with division rivals who know each other well and usually play low-scoring games. While Tua Tagovailoa is 4-0 as a starter against Belichick’s Patriots, his stats are not amazing in these games (3 touchdown passes and 6.7 yards per pass attempt). He just avoids the big mistakes, but Miami has scored more than 22 points just once in the last 6 meetings since 2020.
Belichick-coached defense have been able to keep Tyreek Hill under 65 yards in 4-of-5 meetings ever since he seemed to crack the code in the 2018 AFC Championship Game. For Kansas City, Hill only had a 42-yard catch in that game after shredding Belichick’s defense in his first 2 matchups.
The Pick
Miami’s running game did not look that great in Week 1 while the run defense was very suspect against the Chargers. The Patriots will hopefully get more running going and use a quick passing game to shrink the number of possessions and keep Miami’s hot offense off the field.
After big scores early in games last week, trust the opposite in Week 2 and for the first half under to hit for your NFL ATS.
NFL Pick: Dolphins-Patriots Under 23.5 1st Half (-110) at Bet365
Saints Extend Carolina’s 4th Quarter Blues?
Derek Carr won his first game with the Saints by the skin of his teeth in a 16-15 win over Tennessee. Carr’s Raiders had the fewest wins in the NFL by more than 8 points in the period of 2014-22, so this was not surprising to see.
Also not surprising was Carolina losing another game where it had a chance in the 4th quarter. Going back to the 2018 season, the Panthers have lost 51 straight games when trailing in the 4th quarter or overtime, by far the longest streak in the league.
Does this shape up to be another tough finish for Carolina in Bryce Young’s first home start? The Saints are a 3-point road favorite.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Monday, September 18, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium
Unprepared
Carolina had a difficult debut for Frank Reich and Bryce Young. It looked similar to Reich’s 2022 Colts in that there were entirely too many giveaways by the offense (3), and nowhere near enough scoring.
Young threw 2 interceptions to the same safety in his first game, and none of his passes gained more than 14 yards as he was trying to make this new-look receiving group work without DJ Chark, who can at least stretch the field a little. You know the Panthers were in trouble when Hayden Hurst, already playing for his 4th team since 2019, was the leader in targets.
Tough Game
This could be a tough game with a New Orleans defense that ranks behind only the 49ers in points allowed since the middle of 2022. The Saints have not allowed more than 18 points in 7 straight games, the longest active streak and one game away from the longest streak since the 2019 Patriots (9 games).
The Saints intercepted veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill 3 times in Week 1, and this was a defense that had just 7 picks in all of 2022. Their ability to stop the pass should work very well against a rookie quarterback with limited receiving weapons around him.
4th Quarter Bet
We like the prospects for the 4th quarter. Carr has the most 4th-quarter comeback wins in a quarterback’s first 9 seasons in NFL history. He did not score any points in the final quarter last week as the Saints scored late in the 3rd quarter and had to hang on while the Titans chipped away with field goals.
But as we said before, Carolina has lost 51 straight games going back to 2018 when trailing in the 4th quarter, including an 0-30 record in games where the Panthers had the ball with a deficit of 1-to-8 points. Historically bad stuff.
The Pick
The Saints may or may not need to come from behind in the 4th quarter in this one, but trust Carr and his new receiving trio to put a later touchdown on the board this week after he passed for over 300 yards in the debut without any help from the running game.
We’ll take the Saints to outscore Carolina in the final 15:00.
NFL Pick: Saints 4th Quarter ML (-107) at Caesars Sportsbook
Steelers Cannot Waste Home Start vs. Browns
The Pittsburgh Steelers are not used to opening a season with 2 home games, but the fact that they are underdogs in both is surprising. Pittsburgh played an awful game in Week 1, losing 30-7 to the elite 49ers.
Cleveland is not that deeply talented, but the Browns have some formidable players that can give the Steelers problems if they play as flat and poorly as they did Sunday. The Browns are a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 39.5 points.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, September 18, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium
Preseason Is Not Real
Let the 2023 Steelers serve as a great reminder that the preseason is not real. After the starters scored touchdowns on all 5 preseason possessions in August, it took 6 drives on Sunday for Kenny Pickett to even lead his offense to a first down.
Cam Heyward left Sunday’s game injured and will miss possibly half the season. The Steelers looked outclass in every way, and the Browns had an impressive 24-3 thrashing of the Bengals in the battle of Ohio.
Turning Tide
Things are turning against Pittsburgh here quickly after solid preseason hype, but let’s calm down for a moment. Pittsburgh was blasted twice in 2022, and both times it was against a Super Bowl contender. The Steelers lost 38-3 in Buffalo and 35-13 in Philadelphia.
In every other game, they were either able to win or stay close, including a win in Cincinnati. The Steelers beat Cleveland 28-14 to end the season.
The 49ers might be in their own class this year if Brock Purdy is as good as he looked on Sunday. That also could be the reason why the Steelers are a better upset pick this time.
We did not know if Purdy was legitimately great, but we are getting more evidence that Deshaun Watson is nothing special in Cleveland. His defense won the game for him again in Week 1, and Nick Chubb also rushed for over 100 yards.
Watt a Player!
T.J. Watt was fantastic with 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in Week 1on Purdy, and Watson is a sack merchant who will take bad sacks and turn the ball over. Pittsburgh sacked Watson 7 times in Week 18 last year.
The prospects of this defense holding up against Chubb without Heyward is not good after watching Christian McCaffrey run wild. However, the Steelers have plenty of experience facing Chubb, and the Browns just lost right tackle Jack Conklin to a season-ending injury.
The Pick
The offense knows how bad it was in Week 1, and things will have to get much better if offensive coordinator Matt Canada wants to keep his job. But the Steelers had some solid moments against the Browns on offense last year, including George Pickens making the catch of his career.
Finally, despite what happened last week, we’ll still trust Mike Tomlin here. As a home underdog, Tomlin is 15-5-3 ATS, the best record in the league. Since 1992, the Steelers are 20-0 SU in Monday Night Football games at home (9-0 under Tomlin). If they cannot get up for this one after what happened last week, then it is going to be a long season in Pittsburgh.
NFL Pick: Steelers ML (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
