Each week throughout the college football season, OddsTrader scours the college football odds board and highlights three of the biggest potential upsets for Week 3 of the NCAAF schedule.
These underdogs will not only cover the spread but are poised to pull the outright victory. Let’s see what we have this week!
Picks Summary
- Florida ML (+205) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Buffalo ML (+140) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Missouri ML (+160) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Florida has won 5 of their last 6 meetings with Tennessee.
- Florida has covered in 4 of their last 5 meetings with Tennessee.
- Tennessee’s defense allowed Austin Peay 339 yards of combined offense last week.
Inconsistent Starts
Tennessee kicked off their season in fine fashion with a dominating 49-13 victory over Virginia and covered the 27.5-point impost with room to spare. However, last week was hardly impressive as the Volunteers welcomed a stubborn FCS entry to Knoxville and ultimately claimed a 30-13 victory over Austin Peay but didn’t come close to rewarding their backers who had to lay 48.5 points on the chalky home favorite.
Florida lost to last year’s Pac-12 champions, Utah, last week and couldn’t cover the number as 5.5-point road dogs in a 24-11 loss in its season opener. Nevertheless, last week was a steep step down in class against McNeese State and although the Gators gave them a world-class whoopin’ in a 49-7 victory, it still wasn’t enough to cover the 49-point spread.
The Pick
Although the Volunteers are favored by 6.5 points let’s not forget that the Gators will not only have the support of their rabid fans at the Swamp but they have covered in four of their last five meetings with their SEC East rivals from Tennessee.
Florida piled up a massive 327 rushing yards in their victory last week and they will employ their powerful ground-and-pound attack to keep the clock ticking and the chains moving against the Vols this week. Look for the upset here.
College Football Pick: Florida +6.5 (-110) at Bet365
College Football Pick: Florida ML (+205) at Caesars Sportsbook
Liberty Flames vs. Buffalo Bulls
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at UB Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Buffalo quarterback Cole Snyder has thrown for 459 yards while completing 70.4% of his passes (50-of-71), with five touchdowns and zero interceptions this year.
- Buffalo wideout Marlyn Johnson has 11 receptions for 134 yards, best on his team, and two touchdowns.
- Buffalo running back Michael Washington has 25 carries for a team-leading 109 rushing yards while scoring two touchdowns.
Is Liberty Overrated?
This should be a high-scoring game and while betting over the posted total looks enticing, we will instead grab the significant value that the best online sportsbooks are giving us with Buffalo, currently getting north of a field goal head start.
The public will be betting on the Flames like they’re reading Sunday’s newspapers simply because they have two wins and two covers over less-than-stellar squads in Bowling Green and New Mexico State, but now they will be meeting a Bulls team that faced a top 20 team in Wisconsin and then suffered a humiliating defeat against Fordham last week. Now you know why the point spread is so generous.
The Pick
Don’t be dissuaded from betting on Buffalo this week because of last week’s results. That was an aberration and we will see the Bulls go to the air and outduel Liberty this week in an aerial battle.
College Football Pick: Buffalo +3.5 (-113) at Caesars Sportsbook
College Football Pick: Buffalo ML (+140) at Caesars Sportsbook
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- In two games, Missouri quarterback Brady Cook has connected on 31-of-40 (77.5% completion percentage) for 376 passing yards with three touchdowns and no picks.
- Missouri running back, Cody Schrader has a team-leading 222 rushing yards (111.0 yards per game) while scoring one touchdown.
- Missouri wideout Luther Burden III has 15 catches and leads the team with 213 yards (106.5 per game) while scoring one touchdown.
It’s easy to understand why the oddsmakers have made the visiting Wildcats 4.5-point road chalk considering they won both their games by wide margins and covered the numbers with ease. However, let’s face it, they have yet to play a team that poses a threat unless you consider Southeast Missouri and Troy as threatening.
The SEC Missouri Tigers are a different breed of cat from what K-State has faced thus far. The Tigers have an explosive aerial attack with Luther Burden as a deep threat and a game-breaker.
The Pick
We don’t believe a middling Wildcats’ linebacking corps and a porous defensive backfield will be able to contain this Missouri squad. Grab the points and put a few bucks on the moneyline as well.
College Football Pick: Missouri +4.5 (-113) at BetRivers
College Football Pick: Missouri ML (+160) at Bet365
