There’s plenty of exciting action on the NCAAF slate this weekend. Here are three bets to consider for the slate featuring our computer predictions.
Picks Summary
- Mississippi State-Arkansas Over 48.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Wisconsin -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Iowa -3.5 (-110) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Our AI Model believes that Mississippi State and Arkansas will combine for 62 points. However, the total for this game remains at 48.5, proving there’s plenty of value on the Over.
Let’s start with Mississippi State’s pass rush. Sometimes, it’s non-existent. That would allow Arkansas’ K.J. Jefferson to sit in the pocket and wait for someone to get open for a big play down the field.
Jefferson has already thrown for 14 touchdowns and six interceptions but has added 1,450 yards in the air.
Although Arkansas’ pass rush hasn’t been incredibly good either, they’ll hold their own against the Bulldogs upfront.
Battle of Veteran QBs
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have Will Rogers at quarterback. He’s another veteran quarterback, like Jefferson, who can make a lot of plays when his name is called. Rogers has thrown for ten touchdowns and just four interceptions in six games.
Mississippi State will run the football more often. That’s a good thing, knowing Arkansas has allowed 133.3 yards per game on the ground. On the other hand, Mississippi State has given up 263.5 yards in the air.
Arkansas’ passing game should be played at a high level at home.
Therefore, let’s take the Over in this matchup.
NCAAF Pick: Over 48.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium Champaign
Our AI Model believes Wisconsin will earn a 26-17 win over Illinois on Saturday. With the Badgers sitting at -2.5, there’s value in Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin Badgers have averaged 400 yards per game on offense while giving up just 335.3 yards on defense. That’s allowed them to begin the season 4-2.
The Badgers couldn’t find any rhythm against Iowa, but they’ll likely bounce back against Illinois.
The Fighting Illini are above average in many areas defensively. But they’re not elite in any.
Establishing the Running Game
The Badgers just need to run the football more often. Braelon Allen was supposed to be one of the best runners in the Big Ten this year. While he’s been good, to Allen’s standards, he could be better. Allen rushed for 87 yards with 18 carries against Iowa, averaging 4.8 yards per carry against one of the best defenses in college football.
Wisconsin’s receivers have also been a letdown, which is even more reason for the Badgers to rush the football.
However, the defense hasn’t been a letdown for Wisconsin. The Badgers have a terrific secondary and a pass rush that will get to the quarterback in every game. They’ll take on Luke Altmyer and the Fighting Illini, who have earned 371.6 yards per game. However, Altmyer has more interceptions than touchdowns thrown this year. He’s sitting with eight touchdowns and nine interceptions in seven games.
Wisconsin’s defensive backs are licking their chops.
Take the Badgers at -2.5. The AI Model knows.
NCAAF Pick: Wisconsin -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Kinnick Stadium
The AI Model suggests that Iowa will win 24-14 over Minnesota on Saturday. The play is Iowa here, with the Hawkeyes at just -3.5 against the spread.
It’s been a disappointing season for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Minnesota is 3-3 on the season and just lost to Michigan, 52-10. The Golden Gophers even took a loss to Northwestern on the road and had to “escape” Louisiana in an 11-point win earlier this season.
Athan Kaliakmanis has thrown for just 797 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions. Despite being protected at a solid rate by the offensive line, he hasn’t lived up to the hype so far.
A Clash of Styles and Strong Defenses
The run game has always been special at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have earned 180.5 yards on the ground but just 132.8 yards in the air.
The same ratio will likely take place against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have held teams to 325.6 yards per game, with under 200 yards in the passing game.
Iowa’s secondary is phenomenal, and the run defense is just as good. The Hawkeyes have also been great at converting tackles this year.
On the other hand, the Hawkeyes’ offense isn’t special. The defense puts them in a great position to win games. They’ve earned only 247.4 yards per game, with just 116.6 yards in the air.
Yet, Iowa is 6-1 with under 250 yards per game on offense. It’s admirable, honestly.
The defense will live up to its hype against Minnesota and earn another weird win in this one.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa -3.5 (-110) at BetRivers
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
