The NFL’s Week 9 schedule has so many big games that Seahawks-Ravens could get lost in the shuffle as a game between division leaders with 2 losses each.
But we give it our attention, and we also have picks for Frank Reich’s revenge game against the Colts now that his Panthers have a win, and the Saints might start rolling through their easy schedule after a high-scoring win last week.
We scoped out the OddsTrader computer picks and found 3 of our favorite bets that you can find at top betting sites for Week 9.
Picks Summary
- Seahawks-Ravens Under 43 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Colts-Panthers Over 44 Points (-109) at BetRivers
- Saints -7.5 (-105) at BetRivers
Pete Carroll vs. John Harbaugh: Expect Defense
The Seattle Seahawks (5-2) may not be as sharp offensively as they were last year, but an improved defense combined with a San Francisco losing streak has Seattle leading the NFC West. The Baltimore Ravens (6-2) come in on a 3-game winning streak and allow a league-low 15.1 points per game.
The Ravens are a 5.5-point home favorite with a total of 43 points. We know Pete Carroll likes to play close games, and after the way Baltimore failed to cover in Arizona on Sunday, we are going to stick with the under in this one.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at M&T Bank Stadium
Why Seattle Might Not Score Much
Since 2019, the Seahawks have played 5 early “body clock” games against a playoff team, and 4-of-5 games finished under 43 points. Slow starts in such games were a hallmark of Carroll’s early Seattle teams with Russell Wilson and the Legion of Boom, while we are still learning what to expect from this team with Geno Smith.
But if Seattle’s dogfights with the Bengals (17-13 loss in Cincinnati) and Cleveland last week (24-20 win after a late pick set up the offense) are any indication, then this should be another hard-fought battle between the NFC West and AFC North.
Geno Smith’s Performance
Indeed, Geno Smith’s touchdown rate is down and his interception rate is up from last season, but his other numbers (completion percentage, yards per attempt, QBR) are largely the same, and his sack rate is lower this season.
But Smith has thrown 5 of his 6 interceptions since Week 6, so that is why it has been a topic of interest lately with this offense. The Browns could have had more than 2 picks too, but that defense made some incredible reads on Smith’s passes in that game.
Well-Coached Defense
The Baltimore defense is obviously well-coached and is allowing a league-low 15.1 points per game as no one has put up more than 24 points yet on the Ravens. We would say the strength of schedule has not been great, but the Ravens did hold the Lions to 6 points in arguably the best team performance in any game this season in Week 7.
The Seahawks are only 23rd on 3rd down and 20th in the red zone, so the situational play has not been that strong, and that can bite them against a tough opponent. The Ravens rank 10th on 3rd down and 3rd in the red zone on defense. They will likely allow somewhere in the range of 13-to-24 points in this matchup against a good but not great offense.
Why Baltimore Might Not Score Much
The Ravens are a wild card in terms of what we’ll get from the offense. One week, they might look like the best offense in the league like when Lamar Jackson shredded the Detroit defense that just made Jimmy Garoppolo look like he should retire.
But the Ravens also blew games to the Colts and Steelers where they dropped passes and left plenty of points on the field. Even Sunday’s 31-24 win in Arizona featured a couple of short touchdown drives after Joshua Dobbs threw interceptions. Jackson did not follow up his huge Detroit game very well, and Zay Flowers did not even break 20 receiving yards.
Improved Unit
The Seahawks were the worst defense to make the playoffs last season, but things have improved this year. They rank around No. 11 in most of the key stats. Devon Witherspoon has been an impressive rookie corner. Boye Mafe has a sack in 5 straight games to lead the defense in that category.
The Seahawks rank No. 3 in yards per carry allowed and No. 7 in net yards per pass allowed. This is not a defense that gives up huge plays like it did a year ago. They are going to make the Ravens grind for long drives for points in this one.
The Pick
Not only is Baltimore allowing the fewest points, but the Ravens also allow a league-low 4.2 yards per play. We were not a huge fan of the final score producing a full touchdown spread as these teams both love to play close games that shouldn’t even be that close.
But the total feels right for this matchup, so we will go with the under in what will hopefully be a highlight in the 1:00 p.m. slate on a packed day of NFL action.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24 – Seahawks 17
NFL Pick: Under 43 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Frank Reich’s Revenge Game vs. Indy
The Colts fired head coach Frank Reich last season, and you could say it was justified, and they are getting encouraging signs from rookie coach Shane Steichen this year.
But this is no doubt a game Reich had to have circled this season as he gets to host the Colts in Carolina, and his team is coming off its first win in the Bryce Young era.
The Panthers are a 3-point home underdog with a total of 44 points. We think the over has a lot of value in this one.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 04:05 PM EST at AT&T Stadium
Carolina Finally Wins a Game
The Panthers were the NFL’s final winless team at 0-6, but you can cross them off the list after they came back to beat Houston 15-13. That also ended a streak where the Panthers lost 56 games in a row when trailing in the 4th quarter going back to the 2018 season.
Put a bow on that one as it is finally over even if it required the weakest comeback you can have from a 1-point deficit with the entire quarter to do it.
But maybe that win will energize the Panthers, who got a solid game from rookie quarterback Bryce Young despite no help from his running game or offensive line (6 sacks allowed as Houston swarmed him). But Young hung in there and made some clutch throws to Adam Thielen to get the game-winning field goal.
Alarming
It is alarming that the Panthers have gotten nothing out of Miles Sanders at running back after his career year for the Eagles, but again, this looks to have a lot to do with the poor offensive line.
But Young has not been a turnover machine, and the Panthers look better than they did the first month of the season when they were doing historically bad things like holding the ball for 38 minutes and scoring 6 points on offense against Minnesota.
It feels like the Panthers could take advantage of this matchup for one of its best-scoring games of the season.
Colts: Steady on Offense, Terrible on Defense
If you want points in this 2023 NFL season, you should probably watch games with the Colts.
They are the only team to score at least 20 points in every game, a remarkable feat for rookie coach Shane Steichen, who has done it with his backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, and Jonathan Taylor missed the first month of games at running back. The offensive line, like Carolina’s, has also been a bit underwhelming, to say the least.
The problem is the Colts allow a league-worst 28.6 points per game. I’m not sure how they held the Ravens to 19 points in Baltimore, because the Colts have already allowed 4 teams to score over 28 points in Indianapolis, something the franchise hasn’t done since 1997.
Too many turnovers from the offense have led to some bad field position for the defense. This was the same problem Reich had with the Colts last year, and while Steichen has improved things overall, the team is still struggling to win games with this lack of complementary football.
The Pick
When we saw the computer score was over 10 points above the line, we figured this was the matchup to take advantage of the over with the Colts’ scoring consistency and Reich looking to post a big number on his former employer.
Adam Thielen should have another big game for the Panthers. Maybe they can get the running game going too. The Colts should also score another 20-plus points against a Carolina team that allows the 3rd-most points per game (28.4) this season too.
A shootout between Minshew and Young would be fun, but anything over 44 points is going to work here.
Score Prediction: Panthers 28 – Colts 27
NFL Pick: Over 44 (-109) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
Are the Saints Who We Thought They Were?
Coming into the season, the Saints were the favorites at top sportsbooks to win the NFC South. They had the best quarterback in the division (Derek Carr) and the defense was supposed to be a top 10 unit again.
Things have not quite worked out as well as expected, but the Saints are tied with Atlanta for the division lead at 4-4 and they must take advantage of this home matchup against a Chicago team that is what we thought they were.
The Saints are a 7.5-point home favorite with a total of 41 points. We are looking at that spread.
Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, November 05, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Caesars Superdome
Derek Carr’s Best Game
Derek Carr was rightfully taking a lot of criticism for his poor play in leading the Saints’ offense this year. But against the Colts, he played his best game of the season by a wide margin. Carr finished with 310 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 38-27 win.
Carr’s 11.5 yards per pass attempt against the Colts was his 2nd-highest game in his career. The days of the Saints being able to score 38 points kind of went away when Drew Brees retired, but this was an encouraging performance that hopefully the Saints will build from.
The Chicago defense is certainly a great opportunity for Carr to stack big games. The Bears allow 27.3 points per game, and quarterbacks are completing 69.7% of their passes for 17 touchdowns and 6 interceptions against them.
Justin Fields or Tyson Bagent, and Does It Matter?
It appears Justin Fields is still out with a thumb injury for the Bears, so rookie Tyson Bagent will make his 3rd-straight start. For being a Division II prospect and rookie, Bagent has not been terrible for the Bears, who are a rough landing spot for any quarterback right now.
But Bagent has also not been a quality starter, and his mistakes can be exposed by a better defense like the Saints. The defense has taken some lumps in the last few games against the Jaguars and Colts, but this is still a talented unit that can limit D.J. Moore and get after Bagent, who is only averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt.
The Pick
The Saints have forced a turnover in every game this season. They will limit Bagent, who only put up 13 points on a lousy Chargers defense on the road last week.
Derek Carr will have another quality game against a poor defense, and the Saints should be able to win this one by more than a touchdown to get the cover and get on with winning this division they were supposed to win all along.
Score Prediction: Saints 24 – Bears 16
NFL Pick: Saints -7.5 (-105) at BetRivers
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
