The NFL’s Week 9 schedule has 3 prime-time games, and much like last week, we think the best one involves the Buffalo Bills:
- On Monday night, the New York Jets will try to prevent the Los Angeles Chargers from gaining any momentum with a 2nd-straight win in prime time.
- On Sunday night, the Buffalo Bills will seek revenge for their playoff loss against the Cincinnati Bengals last January.
- On Thursday night, the Tennessee Titans will see what rookie Will Levis has for an encore in Pittsburgh after he threw 4 touchdown passes in his NFL debut.
We made our top pick for each prime-time game in Week 9, and you can find the best odds at top sportsbooks using OddsTrader.
Picks Summary
- Chargers Under 20.5 Points (+115)
- Bills-Bengals Both to Score 1st Quarter (+110)
- Diontae Johnson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+240)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jets to Humble Justin Herbert Next?
This might sound familiar, but the Jets have a great defense and little-to-no passing offense. They have made it work for a 4-3 record thanks to some incredible comeback wins in the fourth quarter against the Bills, Eagles, and Giants, but they definitely make things hard on themselves with Zach Wilson at quarterback.
But the Chargers are not a team that wins a lot of easy games, last week against Chicago withstanding. With the way the Jets defend and the way the Chargers can be so one-dimensional, we think there is a great game prop here for the Jets to hold Herbert under 20.5 points.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets
Monday, November 6, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at MetLife Stadium
Jets vs. Top Quarterbacks in 2023
The Jets pride themselves on defense, and you would too if you had this track record like they have built in 2023 against a strong schedule:
- Week 1 vs. Bills: Held Josh Allen to 16 points, sacked him 5 times, and turned him over 4 times.
- Week 4 vs. Chiefs: Held Patrick Mahomes to 23 points (6 in the last 3 quarters), only allowed 203 passing yards, and Mahomes had more interceptions (2) than touchdowns (1).
- Week 5 at Broncos: Held Russell Wilson under 200 yards and forced him into a fumble return touchdown in the 4th quarter.
- Week 6 vs. Eagles: Held Jalen Hurts to 14 points (none in 2nd half), sacked him twice, and intercepted 3 passes, including a crucial one in the 4th quarter that led to New York’s game-winning touchdown.
Not everything has been smooth sailing for the Jets, who allowed Dak Prescott to put up 30 points in an efficient game in Week 2. But in playing at home on that poor reputation field at MetLife, the Jets have been very impressive this season.
When you present the Jets with an absolute gem of a matchup like the Giants last week, you see the results in that they held the Giants to minus-8 net passing yards, the best by any pass defense in the NFL in over 20 years. You can make fun of Tommy DeVito coming into the game for an injured Tyrod Taylor, but it is still insanely difficult to force an NFL passing offense into completing 6-of-14 passes for 7 yards with 4 sacks to lose 16 yards.
Herbert’s Challenge vs. Jets
The Jets will get a much harder challenge this week from Justin Herbert and the Chargers, but the same is true of the Chargers getting a much tougher test from New York. They are surely not the Chicago Bears.
The Chargers have already been held to 17 points twice this season by the best defenses they faced (Cowboys and Chiefs). The Jets are near that level even if they lack a dominant pass rusher like Chris Jones or Micah Parsons.
The Jets have corner Sauce Gardner, who may not be shining as brightly as he did as a rookie, but he has only allowed 1 touchdown in coverage in his career, and that was in the 2nd game of his rookie season. He could help contain Keenan Allen from having a huge game.
Herbert is without his best deep threat as Mike Williams tore his ACL, and Josh Palmer was banged up against the Bears on Sunday night. Rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston continues to struggle and only has 114 yards on 21 targets this season. He has been a disappointment with the way the other 1st-round wideouts have looked (Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba).
No defense faces more runs than the Jets, who rank 31st in rushing yards allowed and 22nd in yards per carry. Surprisingly, the Eagles had a season-low 80 yards on the ground against the Jets, but New York has already allowed a couple of teams, including the Giants last week, to go over 200 rushing yards.
But rushing is usually not what the Chargers do. They did it in Week 1 when they rushed for 233 yards against Miami, but the Chargers also have 4 games this season where they did not rush for more than 61 yards, a meager total that would leave Herbert in a one-dimensional attack against maybe the best pass defense he has seen this year.
The Pick
Have you noticed how bad offenses have usually looked on Monday Night Football this season? The under is 9-1 on Monday nights, and none of the 10 winning teams have topped 26 points. Only one losing team has topped 17 points on a Monday night this season.
It just seems like one team completely implodes on offense in these games, and the winner rarely impresses either. While the Jets’ presence in this game has implosion written all over it, which team has a trademark (Chargering) on imploding in games?
We’ll trust the great defense of the Jets to keep this one close enough, no matter how ugly it gets, and to keep the Chargers under 20.5 points for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Chargers Under 20.5 (+115) at Bet365
Bills and Bengals Come Out Scoring
Is it asking too much for a classic shootout between top teams in prime time this season? We did not get it with Dolphins-Eagles in Week 7, but at least both teams put up a field goal in the opening quarter.
With Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, this game has one of the best quarterback matchups in the NFL today. Both need a good start here, so we want to bet on a game prop where both teams will score in the 1st quarter.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 5, 2023 – 08:20 PM EST at Paycor Stadium
Do Not Forget the Canceled Game
One of the 2022 NFL season’s most anticipated games was in Week 17 on a Monday night when the Bengals were hosting Buffalo. It was the first matchup between Allen and Burrow in the NFL, and it had huge playoff implications for the top seeds in the AFC.
In case you forgot what happened, the Bengals opened with a surgical touchdown drive with Tyler Boyd catching a touchdown from Burrow. The Bills answered right back with a solid drive that was stopped for a field goal and a 7-3 deficit. The Bengals were then driving again at midfield, and that was when the football world stopped on a dime after Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field following what looked like a routine hit against Tee Higgins.
The players were in shock, the ambulance was on the field with paramedics trying to save Hamlin’s life, and no one knew what would happen next. In the end, everything worked out as Hamlin survived, the game was canceled, and the two met again in the playoffs in Buffalo.
The Playoff Rematch
With the Hamlin incident draining the Bills late in the year, they came out and played one of the flattest games you’ll ever see from a team in the divisional round. The Bengals took it to them in the snow, the Bills had no pass rush without Von Miller, and Cincinnati quickly led 14-0 and never looked back in a 27-10 rout.
While the Bills did not score in that opening quarter, they’ll understand the importance of not getting behind these guys when they meet this week. The Bills have had some recent 1st-quarter struggles on offense, but the magnitude of the game should matter.
For example, when the Bills hosted Miami in the first “Game of the Year” this season, it was 14-7 Bills after the opening quarter before Buffalo blew Miami out. Likewise, when the Bengals went to take on the 49ers last week, it was 14-7 Bengals after the 1st quarter before the Bengals won impressively by a 31-17 final.
The Pick
Big games, top quarterbacks, and a regular season atmosphere that is more conducive to scoring than the intensity of the playoffs. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but let’s go with both teams putting up points in the opening quarter of this one.
NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score 1st Quarter (+110) at Bet365
Can Diontae Johnson End His Touchdown Drought?
Call him a poor man’s Antonio Brown if you want, but Diontae Johnson has been the No. 1 wide receiver in Pittsburgh since at least 2020. George Pickens may have flashier plays, but Johnson has been the most reliable target and diverse route runner in Pittsburgh.
But Johnson has infamously not caught a touchdown since the 2021 season when he had 8 scores in Matt Canada’s offense. Has the problem been Kenny Pickett, and what if Pickett (ribs) is out this Thursday night?
We see a good opportunity for a player prop pick here for Johnson to end his touchdown drought.
Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Thursday, November 2, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at Acrisure Stadium
Kenny Pickett Just Doesn’t Throw Touchdowns
This is a fascinating matchup because you have Will Levis, who just threw 4 touchdown passes in his first game, and possibly Kenny Pickett, who almost never throws multiple touchdowns in any games. You would have to add Pickett’s 3 best games in his career together to get to 4 touchdown passes.
This consistency for Pickett combined with Johnson’s past success at scoring with Ben Roethlisberger as his quarterback suggests the quarterback has been the biggest issue in Johnson’s drought.
And what a drought it is. Johnson set NFL records last season when he had the most targets (147) and catches (86) without a touchdown in NFL history.
This season, Johnson has only played in 4 games, but he has another 26 targets and 16 catches without any touchdowns yet. Those numbers alone do not sound so bad, but when you combine it with all of 2022, that is 173 targets and 102 catches without a touchdown.
This is another embarrassing facet of the Canada offense, because a receiver this involved should find a way to score at least once. Johnson has looked impressive since his return 2 weeks ago with 13 catches for 164 yards.
But he needs this drought to end.
Mitch Trubisky Just Slings It
If Sunday’s ribs injury keeps Pickett out of this game, the Steelers will go with Mitch Trubisky. Like Pickett, he struggles to throw touchdowns too, but his career passing touchdown rate (3.8%) is still almost double that of Pickett’s (2.0%).
Despite being a backup, Trubisky is not afraid to sling it, for better or worse. He has thrown interceptions at a higher rate than Pickett, but his willingness to throw the ball down the field and into tight windows could actually help Johnson in this matchup if the Steelers are going to throw near the red zone.
All 7 passing touchdowns allowed by the Titans this year have been in the 8-to-19-yard range, which is ideal for Johnson.
The Pick
Johnson has 2 games in his career where he caught 2 touchdowns, and one was against the Titans in 2020. Maybe lightning can strike twice and he’ll finally end this ridiculous streak for Pittsburgh.
NFL Pick: Diontae Johnson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+240) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
