Regression to the mean sure can be painful sometimes. We honked all three of our Week 18 Best Bets to finish the 2022 NFL regular season at 32-21-1; that’s still a fantastic result, but it’s been a slog these past few weeks, dealing with injuries, mayhem and vanishing profit margins.
Good thing the playoffs are here. Wild Card Weekend should restore some of that betting value we crave, although there are only six games to choose from instead of 16. Our first NFL pick is definitely worth throwing a chunky bet at; stick with the usual one-unit wager for the other two, and get ready for what should be a very entertaining weekend of football.
New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, January 15, 2023 – 04:30 PM EST at U.S. Bank Stadium
The Giants (9-7-1 SU, 13-4 ATS) were a big reason we did so well during the first half of the season, but they’re not the right choice as 3-point road dogs on the NFL odds board at SugarHouse. We’re hitting that 48.5-point total instead.
Why Keep Messing With the Vikings?
They do have a nasty habit of ruining our picks – except for that season-opening win over Green Bay. The Vikings drove the Over to an 11-6 record this year despite an offense that ranks No. 20 overall on the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders. Blame their No. 27-ranked defense, and blame punter Ryan Wright for giving opponents too many short fields to work with.
Fortunately for us, the Giants (Under 9-6-2) are designed with our bet in mind. They have their own defensive issues at No. 29 in DVOA, and their offense is much better than Minnesota’s at No. 10 overall, but said offense is built around RB Saquon Barkley (295 carries in 16 games) and the clock-chewing ground game.
QB Daniel Jones will also be making his first playoff start, which is usually bad news for the team in question. Jones ranked No. 20 in passing DVOA this year, three spots behind his Viking counterpart, Kirk Cousins; these are two league-average quarterbacks, and they should find life even more difficult than usual now that the playoffs are here; the Under is 30-20 in the Wild Card round since 2004.
NFL Pick: Under 48.5 (-109) at SugarHouse
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium
Underdogs are usually the sharp side, especially during the playoffs, but the Bills (13-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) are the right choice here despite – or because of – their move from 9-point favorites to -13 at Caesars Sportsbook.
In Tua Nua
The NFL lines changed Wednesday after the Dolphins (9-8 SU and ATS) confirmed that QB Tua Tagovailoa would miss Sunday’s Wild Card game recovering from his concussion issues. Four points is a pretty big move, but it doesn’t properly reflect the difference in quality between Tagovailoa and his replacement, third-string QB Skylar Thompson.
Looking again at those passing DVOA stats, Tagovailoa finished the regular season in second place behind San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo, and ahead of Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes – this year’s presumptive MVP.
Thompson’s DVOA in a small sample size of 105 pass attempts would put him somewhere between Houston’s Davis Mills (No. 30 overall) and Washington’s Carson Wentz (No. 31).
NFL Pick: Bills -13 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, January 15, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at Paycor Stadium
We had the Ravens (10-7 SU, 6-9-2 ATS) last week in much the same situation, and they lost 27-16 to the Bengals (12-4 SU, 12-3-1 ATS); it was a push if you waited until closer to kick-off and grabbed Baltimore at +11. So why take them again now at +8.5?
Action Jackson
First of all, this bet doesn’t have the same potential profit margin as last week’s. It’s still worth a single unit in our estimation, but with fewer games on the schedule, finding three really juicy picks is a lot more difficult.
Second, there’s a non-zero chance QB Lamar Jackson (knee) makes his return for Baltimore this Sunday. He’s said to be on the wrong end of questionable after missing Wednesday’s practice; back-up Tyler Huntley (shoulder/wrist) is also questionable, so we might get stuck with third-stringer Anthony Brown instead.
This will also be a night game in Cincinnati instead of an early matinee. It won’t be snowing, but temperatures should at least dip close to the freezing mark, and that low 40-point total suggests the Bengals will have trouble scoring the points they need to cover this large spread. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Ravens +8.5 (-110) at BetMGM
