XFL Pick: Brahmas/Renegades Under 32.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Week 6 in the XFL starts with the surging Sea Dragons (3-2) looking to keep the Guardians (0-5) winless. It ends with the first Monday night game of the season when the Roughnecks (4-1) and Defenders (5-0) meet in a battle of the best records in the league.
We have our top picks for each game, and you can find the best betting odds at our top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary:
- Sea Dragons vs. Guardians: Over 42.5 (-110)
- Battlehawks vs. Vipers: Over 44.5 (-110)
- Brahmas vs. Renegades: Under 32.5 (-110)
- Roughnecks vs. Defenders: Defenders -2.5 (-110)
Seattle Sea Dragons vs. Orlando Guardians
Saturday, March 25, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Camping World Stadium
In our first game this week, the Seattle Sea Dragons (3-2) are an 8.5-point road favorite with a total of 42.5 points.
This is a big spread for a road team to cover, and this is not your ordinary road game. This is Seattle travelling across the country for a 01:00 PM EDT start. The Sea Dragons could be a little sloppy and lackadaisical to start the game.
But we still like the over after Orlando finally showed some offensive prowess last week in a 35-32 loss to the Vipers. Orlando doubled its previous season-high point total through Week 5. Quarterback Quinten Dormady should get the reps over Paxton Lynch after he completed 22-of-25 passes for 256 yards and two touchdowns.
As for Seattle, it was not a strong offensive showing at all last week, but the offense still found a way to come out with a 21-14 win over undefeated Houston. Ben DiNucci tossed three picks in the win, so he will need to clean that up. He did however lead the team with 33 rushing yards and a touchdown.
We know Seattle can score and Orlando has allowed a league-worst 152 points in five games. Take the Over in this one.
XFL Pick: Over 42.5 (-110) at Bet365
St. Louis Battlehawks vs. Vegas Vipers
Saturday, March 25, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Cashman Field
The St. Louis BattleHhwks (3-2) are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 44 points, the highest game this week.
The Battlehawks have lost two of their last three games, but it does not sound so bad when you consider both losses were to the undefeated DC Defenders. In last week’s game, the Battlehawks had the ball late in a 28-20 game, but AJ McCarron was unable to find the late-game magic this time. He threw an interception on fourth down in the final minutes.
But St. Louis is a good, competitive team in the XFL. The Vipers are 1-4 but finally coming off a win even if it was 35-32 over lowly Orlando. But the offense continues to improve with quarterback Luis Perez throwing for 269 yards and three touchdowns in Week 5.
In fact, the Vipers lead the XFL with 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which would be more than solid even by NFL standards. The next closest team is Seattle at 6.7 yards per attempt. The Battlehawks are only No. 6 at 6.0 yards per attempt.
The Battlehawks and Vipers are two of the top four scoring offenses, and they are two of the bottom three teams in points allowed. The Guardians are the only other team to allow over 100 points already like the Battlehawks (106) and Vipers (134).
The spread is a toss-up, but we think the Over is the best bet for these teams coming off 28-20 and 35-32 games last week that both went over 44 points.
XFL Pick: Over 44.5 (-110) at Bet365
San Antonio Brahmas vs. Arlington Renegades
Sunday, March 26, 2023 – 03:00 PM EDT at Choctaw Stadium
In a rematch from last week’s 12-10 final, the Brahmas are a 3-point underdog with a total of 32.5 points, or a whole field goal lower than last week’s low total that hit with ease.
Last week’s game only reinforced that these are the two worst offenses in the XFL. The Brahmas were 2-of-10 on third down and had just 181 yards of offense. At least Arlington was 7-of-14 on third down with 253 yards, but even with some third-down regression for each team, there were not enough big plays or scoring opportunities to think these teams are going to score that much more this week.
The Renegades are averaging 4.8 yards per pass attempt, which is still better than the Brahmas (4.5). Amazingly, they are the only teams under 6.0 yards. The Brahmas (3.2) and Renegades (2.9) are still the worst by far in rushing yards per carry too.
This is such a low total that you almost want to go the opposite of last week, but one week later, both offensive lines struggling, let’s just go with a repeat result. Even a 20-12 final would hit this Under.
XFL Pick: Under 32.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Houston Roughnecks vs. DC Defenders
Monday, March 27, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Audi Field
The XFL’s first Monday night game of the season is the standout game of the first six weeks – at least on paper. The Houston Roughnecks are coming off their first loss, but at 4-1, they will battle the DC Defenders (5-0) for the top record in the league. The Defenders are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 42 points.
The Roughnecks just came out flat in Seattle last week, trailing 15-0 at halftime. Quarterback Brandon Silvers had been one of the best this season, but he was bad in Week 5, throwing for just 227 yards on 47 attempts (4.8 YPA).
Even with the defense getting three picks off Ben DiNucci, the Roughnecks could not capitalize on offense. After recovering a late onside kick, Silvers threw a desperation interception in the 21-14 loss.
Meanwhile, the Defenders had another solid road performance in a 28-20 win against a good Battlehawks team that DC is 2-0 against now. Once again, the running game powered the way with 248 of the team’s 338 yards. It just may be enough in the XFL for a team this run-heavy to win a championship, but this is a great test for DC against a very good defense.
However, Houston has been loading up on the splash plays against the pass with a league-high 19 sacks and 8 interceptions. This will be the biggest test against the run yet, and DC should be able to rely on its run game to pull out another close one.
XFL Pick: Defenders -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM
