After an exciting Game 4 victory in Cleveland, the New York Yankees are just one win away from clinching a World Series berth.
The Yankees were in a back-and-forth battle against the Guardians last night but ultimately pished through with two in the ninth inning and escaped the Guardians 8-6. Now they’ll send out Carlos Rodon for Game 5 to earn a World Series berth before returning to New York.
Rodon was excellent at the start of this series. In Game 1, Rodon went six innings and allowed just one home run and three hits. He struck out nine and walked none against the Guardians.
But in the NLCS, Jack Flaherty of the Dodgers shut down the Mets in Game 1 and was rocked in Game 5. You never know what might happen!
Meanwhile, the Guardians will ride with Tanner Bibee, pitching on short rest. Alex Cobb pitched Game 1, but he’s injured, so the Guardians are going straight to Bibee for Game 5. Bibee didn’t pitch much in Game 2 since he struggled early. He allowed five hits and three runs in just 1.1 innings. That’s why he’s good enough to pitch against Rodon tonight.
With all that in mind, our computer predictions like the Yankees to win tonight’s game, 4.9-3.2. However, you can find the Yankees at -120 and the Over 7.5 at Caesars. Both of those plays make sense when looking at our AI Model.
Picks Summary
- Yankees ML (-120)
- Over 7.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, October 19, 2024 – 08:08 PM ET at Progressive Field
Can Guardians Earn Different Results Against Rodon?
The Cleveland Guardians whiffed a lot against Carlos Rodon in Game 1. With nine strikeouts and only one home run in six innings, Rodon, the lefty completely shut down the Guardians.
But Rodon pitched behind his crowd in Game 1. Now, he’ll have to face the Guardians on the road. The Guardians may make adjustments against Rodon. After all, Rodon has still allowed a .224 ISO and wOBA of .378 to his last 65 righties.
Beyond that, he’s allowed 46.2% of hard contact and nearly 29% of line drives.
There are ways to get to Rodon. However, the Guardians’ projected lineup has only hit a .165 ISO and has struck out more than 25% of the time against lefties over the last month. Additionally, the Guardians have only walked 4.9% of the time with the projected lineup against lefties over the previous month.
The Guardians have a few righties, like Jose Ramirez, Lane Thomas, and Brayan Rocchio, who have potential against Rodon. But Rodon should still be able to wiggle out of issues in this game. Maybe he’ll give up a couple more runs, but he certainly isn’t able to get rocked.
Can Tanner Bibee Even Go Five Innings?
It’s more likely the Guardians rely on the bullpen tonight. It’s been that way all postseason against the Yankees. Cleveland just lost a tight game last night and narrowly escaped the game before. The bullpen has been far from perfect, especially closer Emmanuel Clase, who has turned into another person against the Yankees.
That said, Bibee has allowed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .350 to 424 lefties this season. He’s added 21.7% of strikeouts against righties over the last month.
He’ll likely struggle against the Yankees for a second time. After all, the New York projected lineup has hit a .182 ISO and wOBA of .322 with 22.5% of strikeouts and 10.6% of walks. New York has more power and is more patient. They’ll wait for Bibee to get behind in counts and then force better pitches or get on base.
Therefore, don’t expect Bibee to get very far in this game. The Yankees are putting together really good at-bats and will likely do the same thing they did to him in Game 2.
MLB Computer Picks
Carlos Rodon looks like the ace of the Yankees staff. Now New York can pitch him in Game 5, and if he pitches well, then don’t worry about Games 6 and 7.
A great game from Rodon would save Gerrit Cole another outing and let the Yankees set things up for the World Series exactly how they’d want.
Rodon could get wild here and there. He could also give up a home run or two to righties. But he’ll do enough with the Yankees bats heating up.
Grab the Yankees on the moneyline and the Over 7.5 in tonight’s game per the AI Model. You can even add them in a same-game parlay and boost your MLB odds.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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