SELECT SCORE:
Nothing in sports betting has a simple method that leads to big profits. You can win over a short period, where particular elements align with the stars. But over a long season, those aspects tend to dry up.
This is true in betting hockey like any sport. You need a good game plan to beat the odds and if you are only betting teams in the NHL, you have a hole in your handicapping methods that is likely to cause you to lose more often than you should.
For today, let’s delve into two important areas that in almost every hockey game have something to do with the outcome. That would be goalies and special teams. If are betting the NHL daily or at least regularly four or more days a week, and don’t know who’s between the pipes and who is scoring on power plays or preventing them, you are short-changing yourself.
What To Understand About Goaltenders
The player standing in front of the cage, which opposing players are not supposed to venture into; for his team, he is the last line of defense. For one shift, one period, and sometimes one game, when virtually everyone else is not doing their job for those three scenarios we just gave you, the goalie can bail out everyone by preventing the puck from getting behind him into the netting.
What makes one goalie better than another? That is easy to point out in three ways.
- Goals a Game Allowed
- Save Percentage
- Win/Loss Record (Home/Road also)
In today’s game, the best goaltenders permit 2.70 or lower GAG and those that are above average for wagering purposes are below 3.00 GAG. In most hockey contests, holding the opposition to two goals is very important. That is brought out by the fact that close to 90% of hockey totals are 5.5 to 6.5. Thus, the netminder limiting the opposition to two goals would mean 3-2 or 4-2 outcomes.
The vast majority of all goalies have a save percentage of 88 to 92 percent. The higher the percentage the better. Generally, you want your goalie to have at least a 90% save percentage. If you want to back him and his team, you’ll want his GAG allowed to also be a low figure and boast a winning record.
If the player in the net, has a low GAG, and high SP, yet has a losing record, chances are he plays on a team that struggles to score or he and his teammates don’t come through in the clutch in the third period or beyond.
For reasons unknown, the win/loss record is not high on charting goalies for betting, but it is here. If you are trying to win bets, you want a goalie who can win a 5-4 or 6-5 game occasionally, by coming up big when needed, even if he and the defensemen had a rough night.
Lastly, look for puck-stoppers that have large differences in home and away. That can also provide wagering opportunities.
How to View Backup Goaltenders
Every team has No. 1 goalie and a backup. The backup during the season will start 25 to roughly 45 percent of the time. This in part depends on how well the top player performs.
Watch for goalies that have a large differential in effectiveness compared to the #1 starter (Play Against candidate) or another whose play is almost unnoticed then the regular goalie needs a day off. (Play On)
All other goalie handicapping elements still apply.
The Importance of Special Teams
With rare exceptions, each team will have to try and score a man-advantage power play or need penaltykillers to prevent the opposing team from scoring.
With as many NHL games determined by a single goal, this is an area often overlooked. This is not to suggest you should base your handicapping principles on special teams, but if you don’t know who the Top 6 best/worst power plays teams or Top 6 best/worst penalty killing squads are, you have a void in your capping the team’s outlook.
Normally, teams that score 24% or better of the time are elite and below 17% are the bottom of the barrel. The exact opposite would be killing off penalties. The best clubs are 83% or higher, the weakest are below 76%. Anytime you have a Top 6 vs. a Bottom 6, if that aligns with the rest of your game handicapping that can strengthen a pick.
There is no predictive factor about when any team might prevent or score a goal in special teams. However, some sites give you game-by-game how teams perform on special teams and if they have either scored or prevented a goal in four consecutive contests, that fifth game is often when the opposite occurs. This can be important when the odds are tight and a one-goal outcome is probable.
In conclusion, taking a close look at goalies and special teams can enhance your hockey win/loss records.
