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As college basketball has evolved, many Christmas tournaments have been replaced by those in and around Thanksgiving to allow the players and coaches to spend a little time with their families around the holidays.
This change can help a college basketball bettor immensely from around Thanksgiving to early January for wagering purposes if you can make the time. Here is what we mean.
Watch College Basketball and Use That DVR
ESPN and its variety of channels, along with the ESPN app, cover a multitude of college basketball games the week of Thanksgiving. We understand that most sports bettors will be interested in watching football on Turkey Day, Black Friday, and Saturday.
But if you want a head up on the competition, you start paying attention the weekend before. Because, starting then until there are leftovers only time for food on the Sunday after Thanksgiving, there are roughly 20 DIFFERENT college basketball tournaments, with fields of four to eight teams, playing two or three times in each tourney.
…roughly 20 DIFFERENT college basketball tournaments, with fields of four to eight teams, playing two or three times in each tourney.
You might think, nobody has time to watch that much basketball and you would be correct. However, if you have a keen eye for watching, understand what you are seeing about various teams, and watch 10 minutes (more if possible) of 10 different games, you jump to the front of the line for betting on college hoops.
Additionally, keep notes of what you witnessed and you have self-scouted 20 teams heading into December and could be on your way to a big year with your upgraded knowledge.
If you can record a few championship games from those events to watch the following week, you have gained even more knowledge.
Study The Box Scores for Tournament Wagering
Because all the eight-team tourneys have each squad playing three times, you will have eight betting opportunities for each event after they played the first round.
This is where studying the box scores, much like the conference tournaments in March, becomes so valuable. The added benefit; instead of the loser being eliminated, they keep playing, which gives you a chance to learn more about a given team for your next possible wager. That becomes a side benefit for the next month or more.
Here are things to watch for.
Teams Shooting a Very High or Very Low Percentage
If a club shoots over 60% or below 35%, chances are that is an outlier number. Unless they face a weak defensive outfit or one that buttons everything down, think regression to the norm.
That doesn’t guarantee they will cover or fail to win based on their circumstance, but it is a great spot to start handicapping.
*Note: The same would apply to three-point shooting.
High or Low Levels of Turnovers or Free Throws versus Their Norm
By the time these holiday tournaments commence, most teams have played four to six times and at least have tendencies even if they are not all 100 percent true.
What you are watching for here is two-fold. First, did a team have a boatload of turnovers and never get to the free throw line, yet only lost by five points? If those numbers were way off their norms, you have to consider the skill of the opponent, yet, at the same time one can surmise those two happenings won’t necessarily occur again. If this same club would be a relatively short underdog on a neutral floor (where almost all the games are played), this is a potential play.
The opposite would be true if a team had six or fewer miscues, and got to the charity stripe more than say 28 times to win by three points. Chances are they will not play as well.
The best course of action is to choose two or three tournaments, or however many you can reasonably do to have the proper recall to handicap the contests. Even without watching, you know more about 16 to 24 teams than other bettors do not.
Stay in Control Betting Wise
Similar to the conference tournaments and March Madness, it is easy to get caught up in the large volume of games.
This is where patience and diligence are imperative as a hoops bettor. Remember, the idea is to build that bankroll so you have made money all season long and know you are prepared for the Madness of March.
Getting out over your skis before December 1st is a poor betting strategy. The reason for doing what is suggested here is to help today and also for future wagers because you have increased knowledge.
Concerning bet size, if you normally bet $100 a game, cut it back to $50 or $75, and learn while you’re going through this process to hunt down better wagering opportunities in the coming months. The wise stalker can find the prize.
