SELECT SCORE:
The sports betting world is in the midst of change. In May 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Amateur Sports Protection Act. That opened up a brand new world of sports betting. Today, nearly 80% of the 50 states have various levels of legal sports betting.
This opened up the marketplace and brought in a slew of new sports bettors, many college-age to their early 30s who wanted to do the wagering their way.
Sharp sportsbooks were only too happy to welcome the business. A good segment of this group had grown up playing fantasy sports, learning through trial and error the pratfalls of that end of the betting world.
With the opportunity to bet on teams like those in the Major Leagues, the rules of engagement have changed and not necessarily in the baseball bettors’ favor. In part because of their lack of knowledge or awareness of what the outcomes do to your betting account.
Let’s discuss two betting areas of baseball, moneyline odds on favorites and one aspect of betting props concerning favorites.
The Problem With Betting Larger Favorites
Most baseball bettors over the age of 50 were taught to never bet a money line favorite over -150. The math was simple and true.
If you bet two baseball favorites at -155 and lose, you are down -310, which means you have to win four consecutive bets if you prefer to wager on favorites to show a profit. In this case, you have to win twice as many bets of your original two wagers to collect any money. That’s not easy.
In today’s world on social media, bettors can be seen frequently betting -190 or more on MLB favorites. Their thinking is more aggressive, believing they have the information and knowledge to win and besides, if you win, the higher juice never matters.
While that is true, in the real world the numbers tell a different story. Let’s say you make 100 baseball bets at higher odds. Someone else makes the same amount of wagers but at much lower odds. In each instance, the win percentage is 60%, which is a very good figure.
- 100 Bets (Seeking Profit of $100 per), Winning 60% at -145 odds = $200 Profit (6000 – 5800)
- 100 Bets (Seeking Profit of $100 per), Winning 60% at -125 odds = $1000 Profit (6000 – 5000)
In this scenario, you make five times the profit by being more skilled in finding the right-priced favorite.
Consider Your Alternatives
If you prefer the larger odds on favorites because they are more likely to win, take a closer look at the Run Line (-1.5, which means your team has to win by two runs).
Say you like a -200 ML favorite, that means there is a 66.7% chance they should win, which is significant. The typical run line price is half the money line, which would be -100 at -1.5 runs. This reduces your overall risk and your payout is the same, taking this from a money line to a point spread contest.
Rest assured this is not a blind bet to make. Your favorite needs to be a good-hitting team that scores runs and you would want a total of at least nine runs, suggesting a higher-scoring game. (Totals below nine often have more one-run outcomes.) You would also desire a bullpen advantage in terms of runs allowed and the superior save percentage.
Run Line Revelations
No matter what, because about 30% of baseball games have a one-run outcome, that should be about the percentage of losses you will incur, even if you did everything right.
Here is a hypothetical ML v. RL situation as explained:
- 30 Bets (Seeking Profit of $100 per), Winning 66.7% at -200 ML odds = Zero Profit (2000 – 2000)
- 30 Bets (Seeking Profit of $100 per), Winning 60% at -100 RL odds = $600 (1800 – 1200)
Once again, a dramatic difference in profit by seeking value even with a lower win percentage.
Today at top-rated sportsbooks, there are more offerings on run lines. Again, if you like the favored club, you understand the money line is too high, but don’t feel good about giving -1.5 on the run line, you can seek out an alternative run line of -1, which could turn a loss into a Push. This is not a bad outcome.
Use the Same Thinking for Player Props
With the proliferation of player props, there can be tempting numbers that have a vast amount of juice. Take one of the top home run hitters in baseball who hits for a good average that would have a prop like this:
- OVER 2.5 Total Bases (-180)
Knowing he hits a home run makes it seem an easier winner. However, the very best home run hitters knock the ball in the seats in the upper 40s for the season. That is less than one in three games. Plus, he could smack two balls with an exit velocity over 100 that end up being singles and you lose taking a big number.
Limit props to -150 on wagers unless you are 95% certain you will win because it will cost you in the long run.
