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Betting against the public is not a license or system to print money, despite what you might have heard. That doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made, it’s just not the life-altering money that some profess is readily available.
Here are betting tips about how to bet against the wagering masses at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Find Reliable Betting Services
Your first step to learning to bet against the public is having three to four websites that show betting odds where bettors are not only placing their bets based on volume (tickets), but also where the money is flowing based on percentages.
The reason for wanting both is that it offers a fair comparison of what people are interested in for betting (tickets) and cash (where the money is spent). Case in point:
- Tickets: 85% on Team A
- Money: 52% on Team B
This could be a red flag for sharp money, finding the value in a football game the public loves.
You need to study the places that track tickets and money and compare the differences which show what sites are the most reliable. Then choose one or two you are comfortable with and begin the tracking process. Initially, it could take a month or two to learn a new skill you can profit from.
Word of caution, don’t use one a sportsbook puts out. It could seem 100% honest on the surface, but it just lends itself to possible manipulation for their good, not yours.
Find a Method that Works Best – Here is One
The internet is flooded with articles that consider 51% of public betting on one side as a reliable side to bet against. They will sight studies; however, those are mostly time frames that are successful in betting football.
Every side and total has a choice, so trying to find winners in 50+ college football games and 16 NFL contests is cumbersome. Instead, do this.
Look for tickets that favor one team by 80 percent or more. That gives you a solid indication of what the public is betting on. In the NFL, be willing to lower that to 73 to 75 percent because you have so many fewer games, though the volume is much larger. 80% is still preferred for the NFL, but if there are no choices, especially during bye weeks, the other numbers will suffice.
To help strengthen your play against the public pick check the money and if 60% or more is on the same side of the public, that’s even better. You are thinking contrarian and will consider backing teams catching 20% or less of the bets placed.
Blindly Supporting Is Not a Smart Idea – Find Support
Though more than enough bettors only play against the public and blindly bet it, having supported, true handicapping principles can place you in an even better position to win football bets and possibly chase you off bad bets.
Most studies show the public is correct around 50 percent and the biggest driver of profit for the sportsbooks is the juice. Because the odds are adjusted continually, the oddsmakers are always looking to balance the market as much as possible to make it more efficient in their favor.
When Should I Study the Percentages?
By early afternoon on Thursday, there had been enough bets placed on the majority of games to have a true shopping comparison. The day of the game is probably the best time, but the sure volume of wagers and money wagered tends to send the numbers toward the middle, making the process less reliable.
You shouldn’t do the research before Thursday because many games have 80% or more of the bets on contests from smaller conferences, which is not an accurate percentage based on lighter volume. Stick with the process.
Look For These Games First
The public loves the public teams, love them or hate them. Check the biggest games of the week and start your handicapping looking for an edge there, because that’s what piques the public’s interest.
Always understand the public wins about half the time, but if you diligently follow this process and have developed an edge, that is all you want as a football bettor.
