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The NBA regular season is a grind for players and bettors alike. However, amidst all the work, there is opportunity to get ahead of the curve when it comes to creating a profitable NBA Futures Portfolio. Let’s look at the top ways to get the best Futures bet into the “pending” section of your account before the playoffs get started.
Here are three things you can do to have the best value in your Futures Portfolio
Predict the Playoff Seeding
Go through the schedule to see who has an easy path to the finish line and who will be facing the toughest teams going into the end of the season. Using generalizations of the late season results, you should have a good idea of where each team will finish. Even though you will not be 100% correct, this exercise will allow you to visualize the various permutations of different playoff matchups.
Oftentimes, a weaker team can advance farther due to a favorable path in the playoff bracket. See who will have tough matchups and who will have advantage matchups going in. Using these predictions can allow you to find an undervalued team going into the playoffs.
However, it is important to remember that teams who finish in the top three in their conference are much more likely to win the NBA Finals. Therefore, when placing long-shot bets, plan your path to hedging the bet. Oftentimes a 35-1 will not pay off, but your ability to hedge can allow you to profit without risk.
Target Teams That Have Injuries
The Philadelphia 76ers were 12-1 this season to win the NBA title. When Joel Embiid was injured, their odds changed to 34-1. This was due to the uncertainty around the MVP’s knee injury. However, 34-1 on a team that was in the top three in the Eastern Conference before the injury is a huge price mistake. Although there is a chance that Embiid would not return and your bet would be worthless, if he does return you are in an excellent position to either ride the bet or make a profitable hedge. By targeting teams who have suffered injuries, we can put ourselves in position to have the strongest Futures Portfolio.
Injuries move the market more than any other factor. Because of this volatility, market moves off of injuries can be the least predictive. It is tough to place a bet on a team who has a star player who is not at full health, but remember, we are speculating for a positive return or a great increase in play.
Having a star player return can be the greatest increase in level of play that a team can have. Therefore, targeting teams who are in the midst of injuries is a profitable strategy when betting NBA futures.
Target Teams That Are Slumping
Not all teams need an injury to have value. Sometimes teams get mired in a rut, or have one of their best players have a disappointing stretch of play. This is the time you want to act if you do believe in the team’s roster construction. Rely on your priors and don’t be fooled by the recency bias. If you believe a team is strong, grab them in a slump to get extra value on your pick.
For example, the Los Angeles Clippers have recently slumped causing their odds to be much higher as they have not put good play on the floor. However, with star players who have shown that they can win in tough spots and have proven they can lead their team to a championship, this is an excellent time to get involved and add a team to your portfolio.
Teams are usually never as good as they look on a winning streak and never as bad as they look on a losing streak. Take advantage of losing streaks, especially on road trips to the opposite conference. This is the best time to enter the market.
Remember, in this Futures game, the key principle is to buy low!
There are three main things you can do in order to make profitable Futures bets in the late season. Make sure you are doing your best to predict the playoff seeding. Target teams with injuries that could be stronger once the playoffs begin. Target your favorite picks while they are slumping to increase the value of your payout. Follow these three rules and you are almost guaranteed to have a good ROI on your NBA’s Futures Portfolio.
