SELECT SCORE:
The term betting against the public has been around for a long time. It is nothing more than getting a “consensus” of opinion.
We have all heard, ad nauseam, that the betting public when it comes to sports loves the favorite and the Over for bets. That is generally true, yet, at the same time, there can be a strong faction of bettors who in a given contest, will back what is known as a Public (Under)Dog.
The same can be true of totals. The reason most bettors like Overs is because when they watch sports, they like scoring. What can influence them to back an Under, in say college football is the weather forecast predicts, wind, rain, or snow, all of which could lead to lower scores. In either case, be aware.
The question becomes whether is it a good strategy to bet against the public at online sportsbooks. And if so, how does one find useful information when talking about college football?
Find Websites Showing Line Movement and Betting Percentages
A surprising number of college football bettors know very little about the actual teams playing each other, yet, are astute in understanding line moves and what side the public is on.
These are known as “line readers” and their skill is understanding the oddsmaker’s original line, watching where the numbers go, and who is driving the movement.
To learn this skill, you have to closely monitor sites that have a grid similar to this:
| Team | Open | Current | Money | Tickets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | -3 | -4 | 45% | 70% |
| Oklahoma | +3 | +4 | 55% | 30% |
| Total | 55 | 57 | Un47% | Ov80% |
In this hypothetical scenario, the Public (tickets) has increased the number of favored Texas by one point. However, the Money is modestly choosing the underdog, Oklahoma. In this case, it appears the public is driving the marketplace by the volume of bets, but the sharper action is backing the Sooners, just not by a lot.
In the same manner, the total is up two points, wholly supported by wagers, but not by cash, which again suggests the public is pushing the market in one direction.
In both situations, the idea would be to consider the Oklahoma with the points and the Under, betting against the public, but not for larger wagers, because the sharp money is not truly on board.
It is best to find five of these types of websites and closely follow the numbers, to hone in on two that give you the most up-to-date and accurate numbers that can help you make your case for betting against the public.
Ideal Betting Against the Public Situation
Sharp sportsbooks will, generally speaking, move lines based on a large number of bets, making the action one-sided. Sportsbooks want to have the public money as close to even as possible, though not always. (That’s a different article.)
| Team | Open | Current | Money | Tickets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | -3 | -3 | 50% | 85% |
| Oklahoma | +3 | +3 | 50% | 15% |
| Total | 55 | 55 | Un44% | Ov88% |
This picture tells us that despite an overwhelming number of bets placed on Texas and the Over, the sportsbooks have not budged because the wagers are smaller in size and easily offset by sharper action. In other words, the books don’t respect their bets and are unfazed.
This is often an ideal Play Against the Public situation to take advantage of.
When Is the Best Time To Bet Against the Public?
For college football, use Friday for Saturday. One aspect you definitely have to follow is doing the work at the same time every Friday. This provides the consistency of numbers weekly. While it is true not everyone bets at the same time each week, having the discipline will help you have better numbers.
In terms of how to choose if you have a large number of possible choices, take the Top 5 in differentials, that is the safest route. Also, remember the public loves the big games and big conferences. Though you will weekly find a contest that fits from the MAC or C-USA, those are low-volume bet conflicts. Those Top 25 or similar matchups will give you better information.
Understand the Public Is Not Always Wrong
You can read similar articles to this, but few will tell you this. The public doesn’t always lose and sharp money doesn’t always win. This type of betting should be in conjunction with standard handicapping.
Blindly betting against the public, particularly when you’re first learning a new skill is not a smart idea. Too often, TV shows, radio shows and podcasts give the impression that sharps always win. That is far from the truth.
