SELECT SCORE:
Baseball has transitioned into the last third of the regular season. No matter what kind of season you have had (good, average, or poor), you need to make adjustments moving forward. Why is it necessary to alter your handicapping style, especially if you are having a nicely profitable season? Let’s dive into this further.
The Betting Odds and Landscape has Changed
Once you reach 110 games played by each team, everything is significantly different from the start of the season and the halfway point. It is now established who are the top teams, those in the Wild Card hunt, those just below that level, and those clubs that are on pace to lose 100 times.
With this knowledge, the linemakers from the sportsbooks will generate odds that will reflect the differences of each group daily.
If two teams faced each other in May or early June and met again in August with the same starting pitchers, the better team is likely to be 20 cents or higher this month, if not more. That doesn’t necessarily mean the talent is that much different than before, however, the perception is the favorite has more reasons to want to win at this juncture and the odds will reflect that.
If you like betting favorites, you may be forced to consider Run Line options with the higher money line MLB odds, because approximately 30 percent of all major league games are decided by one run, some losses are inevitable or a Push if you use the alternative run line.
Being More Selective Can Improve Your Win Percentage and Profits
This time of the year you will find more -200 ML favorites. You should check your run-line betting options to make sure you are receiving a fair price (roughly divided by two). If the run line and money line don’t seem right, it is best to pass on those and find more reasonable odds even if the win probability is lower.
No question, you are more likely to have to do deeper handicapping, yet, at the same time, it is much easier to thoroughly investigate nine baseball games than 15.
Betting baseball is a grind. If one can slow down the process, dig deeper into matchups, particularly when you have as good of material to work with as you will have all season, this can be a massive benefit to you mentally and your wagering account.
Don’t Be Afraid to Love Those (Under)Dogs
During this season, you have played a good amount of underdogs. Though the win probability of some of the weaker pooches makes them appear even a poorer bet than earlier in the season, that might not always be the case.
A possible betting strategy in a series is to consider backing an underdog if they are greater than a +200 ML pooch in each game. Take your standard one-unit bet and divide it by three on each contest. If you hit just one of the three games, you would show a profit.
- Bet $34 at +205 – Lose
- Bet $34 at +250 – Lose
- Bet $34 at +230 – WIN
You lose your first two wagers (-68) but you win just once and have a profit of $78.20, which covers your losses. And even if you would lose all three times, because you split your bets three ways, you lost the equivalent of one $100 bet.
Another potential good underdog role is two evenly matched teams doing battle. In a three-game series where the pressure is on the home favorite to win, even at shorter odds, if the underdog would have edges in starting pitching, bullpen, or recent hitting numbers (at least two of the three possibilities), this could be a delightful dog to play on.
In any sport it is always wise to make later season adjustments, and with baseball having about 15 games daily the last two months, remember, it’s not how much money you make, it is how much you keep.
