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A decade or more ago in the NBA, second-half wagers had a loyal audience. It wasn’t large, yet it was big enough that there was an ample amount of articles on the topic. When sports betting became legal in the U.S., it wasn’t that much later that first-half and first-quarter betting took hold.
Why it became more popular was that you could study information beforehand to make an informed wager, while betting at halftime of an NBA game requires a different skill set and being a quick thinker.
If you’re looking to add something different to your betting portfolio, second-half betting can be an attractive component if you understand how the premise works and what to look for to beat it.
The General Mechanics of Second Half Line
Let’s take a classic matchup of Boston at New York. Here is what a line could look like.
Boston (+6) at New York (-6) Total 220
With New York favored by -6 for the first half, they would be favored by -3 or -3.5 depending on certain conditions, and the total would be from 110 to 111. Most sportsbooks will shade the first half line, offering them a touch of an edge. If the contest goes by expectations, the expected second-half figures would be similar to the presumed splits.
Let’s say the contest doesn’t go according to form, which often happens. Boston leads at the half by 52-49. In this instance, both teams shot about 40% and made a larger-than-presumed number of turnovers, which kept the score down.
Oddsmakers could take into account the statistics and surmise this is a typical division battle between these teams, which has kept the total lower, with an increase in defensive intensity. If that has happened 65% of the time in past meetings, they might well lower the second-half total, but because New York is home, they could beef up the line to look like this:
Boston (+4.5) at New York (-4.5) Total 107.5
There is no set formula for making second-half lines. The oddsmakers have all the information they need to make quick adjustments, and the savvy pro hoops bettor needs to be mentally prepared for what comes next.
How You Can Profit on Second Half Wagers
If you have never made second-half NBA bets, figure out how to do this by trial and error with no wagers placed. Limit yourself to following one or two games at 7 ET and the same at 10 ET on any given day. This allows for greater focus.
Next, learn what oddsmakers are thinking, take the example from above, and start breaking games down at halftime. Create the actual game line and anticipated line and see what the differences are from the actual number is.
Look at the statistics and learn how they make that new number. This is nothing more than trial and error to create knowledge. With this process of thinking of how you would bet the second half side or total and begin tracking your results closely.
If you do this for an extended period and are at least breaking even, seek out websites that track second-half team betting numbers for all contests, and some have home and away, which is also helpful.
Once you have lifted your confidence level to the point where you can confidently believe you can win, start making 0.5 unit bets to reduce your risk and begin building that bankroll. It can be fun learning a new betting skill.
