SELECT SCORE:
For those bettors who grew up in sports betting playing fantasy sports, prop betting was a natural progression. You are studying statistics and models to build teams from a group of players. Now, you are taking the sportsbook’s numbers and analyzing numbers to go Over or Under along with other offshoots for betting props.
That has brought more people into the marketplace both young and not so young, with limited experience about the right applications needed to make money wagering on props. Online sportsbooks promote and encourage these bets and we’ll explain why later.
The mission is how to approach betting NBA props and ramp-up to not only make this enjoyable but profitable.
1. Pick a Lane and Stay There
Most newer prop players want to jump into the fun stuff like player points scored. They pick out their five to 10 favorite players and focus their attention on them. However, the sharp oddsmakers know this and though not dramatically inflated, the numbers are bloated.
Instead, consider rebounding Over/Unders.
Glass Cleaners and Game Changers
This area is not as sexy as points, which should mean truer lines.
Depending if you have five to seven games a day, look for the five top board men and research their numbers to formulate an opinion and understand who they will face, which can tilt the scales to one side or the other. On nights of 10 or more games, narrow your focus to the top 5 glass cleaners. If you start doing this five to seven days a week, you’ll see where to pick your spots for Overs or Unders.
If you still prefer scoring instead of rebounds, look at team points for Over/Under. Pick no more than three teams, learn all aspects of home and road scoring, and match that up against opponent tendencies. If you are already doing ATS or Totals game betting, this is taking it one step further for props.
2. Have More Than One Betting Account
As is the case with regular ATS or Totals wagering, you want the best line possible to maximize profits or minimize losses.
Consider Giannis Antetokounmpo for Points and Rebounds. Let’s say his average on the season is 44 for those categories. You check your phone and find your book has this:
G. Antetokounmpo Pts/Rebs
OVER 44.5 -120 / UNDER 44.5 -110
Sounds pretty fair right? You talk to your gambling buddy who has three accounts. He said he likes Giannis also, but he has these odds instead.
G. Antetokounmpo Pts/Rebs
OVER 43.5 -125 / UNDER 43.5 -105
G. Antetokounmpo Pts/Rebs
OVER 44.5 -115 / UNDER 44.5 -115
In both instances, whether you like the Over or Under, you could have gotten a better number with additional accounts. Almost all reputable sports have opening bonuses, so place the odds in your favor.
3. Stay with What You Know
If you are new to NBA props or have limited betting experience, stick with traditional stats until you have a better understanding of what you are doing. Some experts will talk about using Advanced Stats. Those can be helpful, but only if you understand their value to you as a bettor. Often, they can cause confusion, which is the last thing any bettor needs.
If you become completely comfortable and are winning using standard pro hoops stats, that’s when branching out to increase your skill level can benefit you.
4. Comprehending Volatility in the Numbers
Every NBA player has volatility in his stats. They have hot and cold streaks and the number will fluctuate accordingly. Understanding averages and volatility can make you money or cost. Let’s take a great player like Nikola Jokic, who is terrific in all facets of his game.
Let’s say the Joker is averaging 12 rebounds a game. Over 10 games, in the first five, he’s dealing with an ankle and is listed as questionable, but still plays. In those contests, he has 10,12, 8, 13 and 9 boards. You read the injury reports and learn he’s doing better and improving game by game. In the next five contests, he posts 12,10,20, 14 and 12 rebounds which over 10 contests place him right as his average of 12 a game.
For his next contest, his number is O/U 12.5. That doesn’t seem impossible for an OVER. However, when he was laboring a bit, he only surpassed the number once and after feeling better just twice, so three of 10 times he was UNDER, but that 20-rebound game skewed the numbers.
Always understand what you are looking at.
5. Looking at NBA Injury Reports is Must
We’ll keep this simple; if you’re placing any NBA wager without knowledge of the teams or players involved in the contest, does it make sense to lower your odds to win? Is that a good strategy? Of course not. Do the work.
6. Understanding What Props Mean to Sportsbooks
Why has prop betting become so popular? Mobile sportsbooks found a hungry market but wanted to reduce their risk and increase their bottom line.
Most standard game lines are you bet -110 or $11 to show a profit of $10. Props standard lines are -115, meaning you have to wager $11.50 to win $10. While 50 cents doesn’t sound like much, that’s an extra 4.5 percent of profit to the books on each losing transaction. If you wonder why sportsbooks are pushing props, that’s the answer.
We are not saying you shouldn’t bet on them, just understand your risks, be diligent in your approach in every aspect and you can find a way to win.
