SELECT SCORE:
For those betting on baseball the last few weeks of the regular season, it is quite different than any point of the season. You have….
- Matchups of teams that are competing to win their division
- Matchups of those fighting for the Wild Card
- Matchups of bad teams waiting for the off-season to start
- Complete Mismatches
Aside from the starting pitching, many of these confrontations are hard to wrap your handicapping brain around because teams are fighting for the same outcome to reach the playoffs or have a home-field advantage. One also has to deal with two squads playing out the season, wanting to get away from baseball. That might make the handicapping aspect fairer, just not easier.
Here are elements to improve your late-season MLB betting and your profitability.
Less is Definitely More
The first aspect everyone wagering on baseball should do is no longer go through the numbers on every contest. With games daily at -250 to -350 on favorites and money lines at an extra 15 percent or higher of expected run line correlation (-250 ML should equal about -125 RL), because the oddsmakers know bettors will choose that option of backing the run line. However, there is no value in taking a -150 RL on a -250 ML favorite having to win by two runs.
Seek good matchups with comparable opponents with something to play for. At least the playing field is level and one can use pure handicapping methods.
Recent Form Matter Late
With several squads trying to win divisions or find a way to the postseason, having a measurement of their level of play is important.
Why this is different from the prior months is all the players and coaches understand what is at stake. In May, June and July, clubs fight for positions. Beginning in August, every win and loss impacts all these franchises.
That is why you should have a spreadsheet of all playoff contenders and what their record is from August 1 and August 16, to see who is making a postseason run and just backing into the playoffs. And when you are in the last week of the regular season, keeping records from September 1st can add value and be a tool for the postseason.
Know Anything Can Happen
What every capper wants this time of year in the major leagues is a team fighting for division crowns or chasing a Wild Card slot.
The benefit is pure handicapping, using all the characteristics of a fair line and breaking down who might have an edge to back for picks. Often, there won’t be one that stands out, which is good, better to pass than force a shaky play.
Though baseball has upsets every single day, those that happen in September affect the bettor differently. When a team is fighting to reach the playoffs, they have wiped out an inferior opponent in two straight matchups by three or more runs.
In the series finale, the stronger squad is a -260 favorite, with a big pitching advantage, and has a fair RL price of -130, which is too tempting to pass up. You make the bet on the RL backing the favorite. Later in the day, you check the score and find out you lost 2-1. You cannot believe your team scored once against a deplorable starting pitcher and an equally bad bullpen.
Your pitcher did the job, but the hitters were a no-show and frequently because they were not in full-play mode, instead, just showing up, expecting to win. The bettor cannot correctly guess the mood of a team in that situation, which makes the setback more painful.
Always Know the Starting Pitchers
This time of year – TBA – is a very popular pitcher. Teams using bullpen games are at best 50-50 propositions.
Stick with known quantities and be a smarter more selective baseball bettor to finish your season the right way, profitable.
