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Betting college basketball in the early season is potentially one of the most dangerous things one can do other than betting parlays daily. We know that’s a bold statement but having done this for over three decades, this writer has seen the damage it can do.
Before the transfer portal, wagering on college hoops was hard enough in November. With players able to go wherever they want, and the best being paid in college more than most workers will ever approach, the madness is raised to new heights.
Picking the Top 25 is mostly guesswork based on the possibility of the talent gelling. Choosing conference champs is just as tough and with so many nonconference matchups and not knowing teams, your bankroll in a week or two could be gone like a tsunami, betting on games you don’t know much about.
That’s not to say you shouldn’t bet on college basketball in the early season. Being smart and pragmatic can make you money if you follow these betting tips.
Start Slow, Focus on Teams You Are Familiar With
In the last few years, college basketball has started the season with close to 200 games to choose from. There are those sports bettors and handicappers that will have 25 or more various picks. Those bettors have typically studied the sport for a couple of decades and have “markers” they follow. Even these pros will have the occasional 6-19 start that can put someone so far in the hole they can never recover in a single season.
Instead, in the first two weeks of the year, focus on matchups you can easily access a great deal of information on, in a short time. This allows you to place your attention on a handful of games. The benefit is you have or create better information on the clubs playing and you should know or find out about the coach’s intentions early in the season.
If these matchups are not available on a given night, pass. Your understanding of all the teams will be much greater after Christmas when the conferences get rolling in earnest.
There is nothing wrong with picking your best five matchups on a given day and choosing one to three you truly like.
Sportsbooks Are Swamped and Can Only Do So Much
In November and until the college football regular season concludes, oddsmakers daily are working on the NFL, college football, NBA and NHL numbers and now all those also come with prop betting. No matter how good a bookmaker is, even with help, looking at 25 to 100 or college basketball games having relatively low volume this time of year it’s challenging to have the right number on every matchup.
If you place your attention on selective conferences you regularly follow or expect to as a somewhat new basketball bettor, you can find weak numbers on sides or totals that are exploitable.
Make sure when you believe you have found a soft number, you have multiple cross-checking sources to confirm what you think is a beatable number.
Use The Thanksgiving Season of Holiday Tournaments to Your Advantage
In another article written here, we did an extensive piece about the benefits of watching college basketball just before and around the Thanksgiving holiday.
Without going long-winded, if you watch games or closely follow the box scores in the tournament(s) of your choice you will have excellent wager opportunities this time of year. Does it involve more work? Yes. However, the potential benefit can extend beyond winning some bets. You have put in the time to know and understand about a large swath of teams.
December basketball betting has power conferences facing off, nonconference marquee matchups, and more and more conferences have a couple of conference games before Christmas. That time you put in can give you the edge for winning more early-season games.
These Elements Are Timeless with Added Modern Twists
Though college basketball is vastly different from a few seasons ago, some benchmarks still apply.
- Returning Starters – These players offer stability to the program and can formulate the base. Experience and playing together as a unit can often offset a more talented team that is not connected in the first third of a season.
- Quality Coaches – There is no substitute for a head coach who understands how to build a program and make the pieces he has into a top-quality team, even if the style changes now and again because of how recruiting works.
- Top Point Guards and Exceptional Centers – Both of these players matter in any conference, but in the mid-majors, this is particularly true. A dominating center and high-scoring facilitator can take a team to a higher level. This can be true in holiday tournaments or nonconference action where an unsuspecting club is upset or barely covers because one or both of these players evened the playing field with their skill.
- Home Team Edges – Oddsmakers have numbers for all teams’ home courts and those are baked into the point spread. Nevertheless, some clubs just play better at home and this is something to understand, and have it work to your advantage.
