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In all the years of betting baseball, the starting pitcher for each team was always the most important factor. For the most part, that holds true today, but the significance of that hurler is greatly diminished.
The pitch count forever changed baseball. Whether that is good or bad is an open debate, yet it is true. Today, the team’s best starters, come May, will top out in the 90-100 pitch range once he’s built up arm strength with a few starts. Those on the back of the rotation are about 10 pitches less, greatly depending on their specific game performance.
That has meant an increased usage of bullpens. For numerous baseball bettors, the word ‘reliever’ is equivalent to a curse word because that’s what bettors end up doing after some guy gives up a lead on a team that person wagered on.
How has that changed betting on baseball on both sides of the counter or a phone screen?
Sportsbooks and MLB Bettors Have to Know the Starters and Bullpen Numbers
In essence, the oddsmaker still views the starting pitching the same as always in terms of what they can control. If a starting pitcher ends up around 90 pitches and was having a normal start given their talent, he’s probably going to pitch into the sixth inning.
What the oddsmaker and the individual bettor have to know is the performance of the 5th/6th inning guys, the setup crew taking the 7th and 8th innings, and the closer.
Bullpens should be broken into those three areas, looking for the strengths and weaknesses. Nearly all pitchers, sometimes, including closers, were once starters in high school, college, or in the minors. They either lacked the repertoire to be a starter or had the big fastball that worked until a higher level.
While there is often a wide variance in the quality of a bullpen, anytime three or hurlers are used out of the pen, invariably, one person won’t have the best stuff and gets hit. That doesn’t mean he’ll be tagged hard, as some will work around their lack of quality pitches on that day.
Pitch Counts Have Opened All New Betting Possibilities
Sportsbooks in the modern world are always looking to entice gamblers with wagering opportunities. One of the best inventions was the First 5 Innings. For those sick of losing games because the bullpen couldn’t support a good to high-quality start, this was the perfect chance to view starting pitchers and keep the bullpen out of an outcome.
This opened up a whole new world of wagering opportunities. Take a look.
- Innings per start pitched
- Strikeouts
- Hits Allowed
- Walks Allowed
- Runs Allowed
- Record a Win
This can be too overwhelming even for the experienced bettor. One suggestion is to choose one category and stick with the top two pitchers in any club’s rotation; this enhances your chances of winning with their expected reliability, making the research easier to work with.
Bullpens Play a Bigger Role For Bettors, Just in Different Ways
With pitch counts and bullpen usage, that has made a difference in player props.
Previously, when top hitters faced a Clayton Kershaw in his prime, the Under in player pros invariably made the most sense, and the odds supported that. Now, even with an ace pitching six strong innings, the Top 2 hitters in any lineup card could have two more plate appearances, likely facing a lesser pitcher, giving a hitter a shot at winning a wager on hits, RBI, or even a homer more possible.
The Latest Wrinkle: Home Team to Bat in The Bottom of The 9th Inning
In this instance, you’re considering a competitive game for a Yes or No bet. At the same time, you are pondering an overall pitching edge, and it will come down to the bullpen holding any working margin.
It’s never fun to lose a baseball bet when your starting pitcher is sailing through six innings, allowed one run on two hits and no walks and the manager pulls your guy with a 3-0 lead, because the first batter of the inning got a hit or made a warning track out and five batters later the game is tied 3-3.
For this prop, you will determine the strength of the starting hurler and the bullpen, along with how many runs your team can score, allowing you to bet accordingly.
Fortunately, today, you have more options to win against pitch counts than ever before.
