SELECT SCORE:
The NBA Finals will start any day now. By now, you know who the underdog and favorite are, and probably have at least a strong opinion about who might win.
However, what is your thought process in determining not only the NBA Finals winner but who is most likely to win game by game? Along with this, the thought is to make sense of the totals, and in today’s new basketball betting world, various prop wagers. Let’s provide a template to follow at top-rated sportsbooks.
Matchups Generate a Lot of Answers
The head-to-head player matchups are so important in determining who could win a contest or the series in the playoffs. Those are further magnified under the microscope of The Finals, where seemingly every made/missed shot matters.
Here you have to understand the skills and weaknesses of each player and how those align with the opponent. Is a player skilled at both making threes and driving to the basket? Will the opposing team be able to create pressure on that player to take away a part of his game? Literally, sitting down and going player by player and dissecting each starter is potentially very meaningful.
Bench Play Can Steal a Game or a Series
As is always the case of any playoff series, invariably you need three scorers to win games. Often, adding the points of each club’s three-best scorers will generate the winning team. But what happens if one or two stars on a given team falter and have a poor outing or are heavily guarded by double-teams and have to get rid of the ball?
This is where knowing each bench and the kind of productivity they can provide matters. One has to realize that is not the only way to help your team because a defensive stopper that can force missed shots or create turnovers can give their team a huge boost.
Don’t Discount Coaching
Though every coaching matchup is not heavily weighted in one direction, often, winning one outcome can determine a series. The players still have to execute the game plan, and sometimes a strategy move can play out as a stroke of genius or backfire immensely.
Understanding how a coach works in terms of strategy and motivation can be valuable in isolating one game in a series if you have good insight into how a coach works.
Go Down the Checklist of Intangibles
Everything mentioned above are basic principles you have to do if you expect to have a winning record and make money handicapping the NBA Finals. For most, that can be more than enough. However, for those looking for more to support your picks, you do the extra work.
That would be looking at other areas that decide the outcomes of games. Here are three of the most important intangibles.
- Free Throws: If the two teams have a disparity in free throw shooting by percentage or makes or a large differential in attempts, that could decide any potential series or one game. Make certain you know and understand these numbers.
- Turnovers: Maybe one squad is loose on the turnover side and is facing a Top 5 defense in turnovers forced. Essentially, every turnover is worth one point to the opposing team. If a point spread is three points or less, it is something you have to pay close attention to.
- Injuries (Players Playing Hurt): If a player is injured and cannot play, that is already baked into the point spread. The more important aspect is an injury affecting an individual performance. Does he normally drive to the basket frequently but a bad hip or foot issue makes him more of a jump-shooter? Those are elements that should be part of your decision-making process.
For Totals and Props Follow the Numbers
Invariably, totals come down as a series continues. Be alert to the shooting percentages and pace of play that can offer strategic clues.
For props, follow the game-by-game numbers for whatever props you prefer to bet on and see how they match for recent performance and how that aligns with the regular season figures. This is nothing more than being diligent in picking winners and making money.
