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With the continued use and even more three-point shooting in professional basketball, the game has changed. Some view it as evolution, others see it as a plague that has poisoned the sport into a jump-shooting contest, eliminating the beauty and essence of the sport.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and in some ways a different version of the days of thuggery when going to the basket with the ball could mean bodily harm in the late 1980s and early 90s. That disappeared, as will this style eventually and we’ll move on to something else.
From a betting perspective on totals, the sharp sportsbooks always adjust, and more often than not quickly, making it hard to develop an edge, even for a few weeks.
However, those who pay the closest attention can take advantage of certain situations that arise. Think of it as a surfer sitting out in the water, and while a wave may not look like much for those standing on the shore, the experienced surfer spots the next huge wave and is prepared to ride it.
Read NBA Preseason Team Reports
You may have noticed in all professional sports these days, though teams play games before the season starts, it seems more like exercise than a commitment to prepare for the season.
Teams that have rebuilt rosters or made a head coaching change are playing a different style of offense or defense, or possibly both, and are often vulnerable to extreme outcomes on totals.
If a club with average experience or a younger outfit brings in three or four key players, you should closely follow if the team is meshing on both ends of the floor. Is the offense off-kilter and having trouble dropping shots? If this is true and they are falling below expected team scoring totals, paying attention to Unders is a good idea.
Defensive Disarray?
The other aspect in the same scenario is how a team performs on defense with new individuals. If you find this outfit permitting a higher-than-normal shooting percentage allowed, particularly behind the arc, Overs can be your calling card.
If you check the statistics to learn this information, you don’t even have to bet, just learn how to profit later.
Watch and Listen for Rules Adjustments
At the start of the 2023-24 season, totals consistently ran 10 or more points above closing totals. Even with adjustments from the oddsmakers, Overs were hitting 60% or more after the first month of the season.
In the prior offseason, NBA officials were told to call fouls on certain types of dribble penetration moves that were being double-teamed, or close-outs on shooters that were probably fouls at least 50 percent of the time. These whistled calls were adding extra dead-ball points. The league had hoped the players would adjust and this would slow down, but the players did not bend because they were following coaching orders.
Quietly after two months, the whistles stopped blowing as frequently and foul shots fell off. Totals started tumbling and top oddsmakers understood what was happening. They returned to the previous ways of calling those plays, which meant far fewer free throw attempts and lower scores.
Paying attention to team or league trends can place you immediately on the cutting edge of winning more bets.
Understanding the “Pace” of Play and Efficiency Ratings
While most NBA teams play at a similar pace, some clubs get up and down the floor to have shooters in certain comfortable spots to make a higher percentage of shot attempts. There are also teams lacking in quality shooting, that prefer to milk the shot clock and shorten games if they feel they are at a disadvantage offensively or have an edge because of how they play defensively.
That doesn’t mean they play the same way each time because no matter how good or bad a club is, they do not always dictate the pace or how the game is played. One can create a visualization by considering the pace for each team, and their normal number of shots per game to understand how that aligns with the total.
If you have two faster-paced teams, who average better than 90 shots per contest and are above league average in shooting percentage and defensive turnover rates, yet, the total is below 220, the oddsmaker is telling you something. In this scenario, something about this matchup doesn’t add up and it’s your job to find what it is and not auto-bet the Over.
Typically, there is a history between the opponents that feature more defense or higher-scoring players on one club who don’t excel against foes in head-to-head matchups on the floor.
In the first part of the season, if you learn these lessons, you just might profit from them for the rest of the year.
