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For the most part, nonconference play in college basketball is finished except for a few games here and there. With college football winding down after the start of a new year, a larger majority of basketball bettors start following the collegiate game preferring conference play to nonconference action, not always as familiar with the matchups.
Wagering picks up in college hoops as bettors are in more familiar territory and have fewer outside distractions like the bowl games and the end of the NFL regular season.
One aspect to understand the difference between conference play and nonconference is significant and if you don’t realize it and understand, it will cost you from building your bankroll.
The Intensity of Play Rises
In November and December, there are numerous fascinating matchups between the Top 15 teams. Some are even held on campus of one club’s home court providing a disadvantage for the visitor.
On a cold snowy night in the Midwest or East, when a run-of-the-mill conference team is a 12-point home underdog to one of the league leaders and the crowd is frothing with anticipation, that generates an electric atmosphere. Though the home club might come away with a loss, for 35 minutes they pushed the better team and were right on the edge of an upset before falling.
On any given night, upsets happen and are often brought about by an uninspired favorite and a fired-up underdog who plays past their skill level. Always be on the lookout for these matchups.
Look For Those Home Underdogs
The tag along to this way of thinking is seeking to uncover home underdogs. That’s not to say just seek home team catching points, it is finding the right situations and matchups.
If the home team is skilled at shooting or defense and competent in other areas, they might place their opponent on upset alert.
Using a strong defending home pooch, if the more skilled opponent hits a higher percentage of shots inside the arc but is average to below in connecting on three-pointers, this is worth looking into. If this home dog has a rim protector and plays a matchup zone close to half the time, they could unsettle the opposition and that confidence leads to making more shots for themselves. This can be the genesis for an upset.
The same holds true for clubs averaging nine or more threes and for whatever reason they have a hot shooting night that further juices up the crowd. Both scenarios and others can lead to winning wagers.
Familiarity Adds Contempt
Though the transfer portal has changed things, teams in various conferences have a long history of not getting along. The Duke vs. North Carolina battle comes to mind, but so does Kentucky vs. Tennessee, Kansas vs. Kansas State and countless more.
The incoming players learn quickly about the vibe and rivalry and buy into the thinking. Not only do these bitter battles affect the outcomes but the same can happen to totals.
In this scenario, we have one squad that plays at a faster pace and its typical total score is just over 150 points. They face a foe who continually scores in the upper 120s to low 130s. The sportsbook makes their matchup 136.
This tells us the oddsmakers are confident the slower-paced club will probably dictate more of the style of play and work with a degree of success in making this a lower-scoring affair. In conference clashes, watch for these elements to occur and understand what the bookmaker is implying.
More Revenge Betting
In the super conferences, revenge is much less likely to occur with so many teams. Nevertheless, that’s just a handful of those taking the hardwood. The rest of the conferences are still the same size and have built up years and decades of playing in revenge spots.
We are not advocating betting heavily on all revenge games, rather, at least knowing the skill, the previous score and the history of the combatants could be reason enough to understand what happened in the last meeting.
Present form matters compared to four or six weeks prior. Consider the closing line of the first game and the current line of the second encounter. Say Texas was -6 at home to Oklahoma, they won the previous time by seven, yet are -3 at Norman. A standard location adjustment should be three to four points for each team, thus, the Sooners would be a Pick to -2. Determine why the Longhorns are favored and if the contest worth a bet or pass based on your work.
Follow Conference Betting Trends
This can be more time-consuming but if you find just a conference or two trending a particular way, you can profit from it.
This writer forgets the exact year, but about a decade ago in late January, it seemed the home teams in the Missouri Valley Conference were not only winning but covering the number.
I researched all the conference games and found if you subtracted the three worst teams in the MVC, the home teams were covering at just below 80 percent. That was astonishing! Paying closer attention, though the win percentage cooled slightly, over the next month this bettor made a large sum of money following this, which ended up at 75% following the parameters.
If you find an emerging pattern anywhere, track it until the halfway point of the conference schedule and start backing it until it starts losing. The same is true of totals, as leagues can have offensive or defensive years, and if the books are slow to react, opportunities exist.
