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The NFL Playoffs are an exciting time of year for football bettors at the top-rated sportsbooks. You have watched and followed the league all year and now this is your “payoff” for the time you’ve put in to see the best teams win and advance.
With that, every sector comes with its own specific niche and though it is true there is ample crossover between the Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championships and the Super Bowl, how to determine winners and losers for NFL betting differs.
NFL Wild Card Betting
Because there are now six NFL Wild Card games, there is a tendency for football bettors to get caught up in the hype and want to bet something on all of them or at least five games. Most sharp bettors don’t want volume, they want quality and value and bet accordingly.
If you are betting against the spread, a good rule of thumb for the Wild Card round is to find two underdogs that can cover and one generally speaking larger favorite to back.
Underdogs have long covered the majority of these matchups at close to a 60% rate. That was mostly in the days of four contests and it’s hard to say what happens with added games. However, understand you are adding a seventh team, which is probably a lesser team and they are facing a #2 seed that previously had a bye.
Most teams seeded 3 to 7 have obvious flaws so favorites can lose outright, making underdogs more attractive. Also, watch for favorites of a touchdown or greater, they are normally at least much better than who they face. And if you want to add one more bet, find the best total on the board, it’s the smartest way to go.
Divisional Game Wagering
The first order of business is seeing what upsets occurred in the previous round while asking these types of questions:
- Does the team that advanced and likely a good-sized underdog have what it takes to make a closer-than-expected game?
- Did the lower-seeded team thoroughly outplay their opponent on the scoreboard and in the stats?
- Has this been a trend of their play to close the regular season where they could be better than their seed?
- Did they catch lucky turnovers, were outgained by 75 or more yards, and squeaked out an upset?
In confrontations of 1 vs. 4 or 2 vs. 3 seeds, you have to dive deeper to find the real difference. Does the point spread match the statistical differences or does a Top 5 running team have a large edge against a #23 run defense?
Always appoint a value to the two quarterbacks. Is one signal caller a half-point different to the spread or is it 2 or 2.5 points? Do the same in O-Lines vs D-Lines. There is typically one surprise, be it an upset or a favorite fortunate to win but fails to cover. Find it.
Conference Title Game Has Its Own Flavor
There are no absolutes, yet invariably for the conference title games, one is tight, or a relatively close contest decided late and the other is won rather handily. The handicapping principles that were mentioned above apply and pay particular attention to how these combatants have played in the postseason and does it relate to how they finished the regular season?
Again, quarterback play matters.
Understand not only the differences but also who has been playing better recently. Review their last three games if they were home or away and determine a track record that you can learn from.
Not that coaches don’t matter to this point, but who has done a better job when the playoff push began and is one of their coordinators doing a fantastic job of late, working in near percent sync with the offense or defense?
Lastly, break down the special teams and determine if that can make a difference, and also review the number of penalties called. Maybe one team is winning but sloppy in pre-snap penalties which could be a harbinger of a terrible fate.
Super Bowl: the Wild Beast
All the elements discussed apply to the Super Bowl, making that mostly a rehash.
What is different about the Big Game is the hype and it is easy to get sucked in. This should be treated like any other game. The NFL odds will be correct so you have to work to find edges and you should follow the same path and information sources you have all season if you have been winning. Don’t add more.
What was once a cottage industry has blown into a big part of the Super Bowl: props.
If you normally bet $150 a game and want to add props, something you don’t often do or dabble in for the regular season, bet $75 on the game itself and $75 on props. This is controlling your bankroll.
Find 5-10 props you truly think will win (“can” doesn’t mean “will”, its meanings are in a dictionary) and research them as completely as you do a spread or total. Of course, you can and should wager how you prefer, but if you follow this plan for each round, you’ll likely have a larger bank account.
