SELECT SCORE:
There is a long-time betting saying that reads – “Let Trends Be Your Friend”. That can be true in many instances, but not entirely the way to proceed. Trends are valuable if they are short-term, primarily having the same makeup of players in any sport or coaching staff that has been in place for some time in one location where they play a certain style.
What can often be better is – betting systems – that take into consideration all teams in the specific sport, which is a much broader area, allowing one to hone in on the specifics of particular parameters that can find very profitable situations bettors can exploit.
With this article about college football totals, we put on the miner’s cap and got a shovel to dig up a few of our college football betting systems relating to totals. We also will explain why these systems can and do work when betting at the top sportsbooks.
System 1: Defensive-Minded Teams
*Play UNDER on teams when the total is between 42.5 and 49, after one or more straight-up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), playing a winning team. (44-13, L10 years)
This system would feature two winning programs that are either defensive-minded or are good defensively and have weaker offenses. That is inferred because of the lower total set by the oddsmaker.
Both teams have shown they win more than they lose and are unlikely to take many chances on offense or defense. Hence, a low-scoring affair.
System 2: Road Teams with Recent ATS Success
*Play OVER on road teams when the total is between 49.5 and 56, after two or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), faces a winning team. (26-7, L21 years)
As you can see, this exact situation doesn’t pop up often, but when it does it’s a splendid money-maker.
The total is run-of-the-mill for college football, and it seems since the visitor has a losing record, they are most likely to have a defense with a few exploitable holes.
Because the opponent has a winning record, they can score where they have edges in the trenches or with better-skill players.
System 3: Defensive Strength and Low Totals
*Play UNDER on teams when the total is between 42.5 and 49, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games, against an opponent after permitting seven points or less in the first half in two consecutive contests. (32-10, L10 years)
This college football system is best understood by focusing on the backend. There, it explains how good both defenses have played in recent skirmishes, which correlates directly to the total.
From that point, the low total becomes self-explanatory and is certainly a proven winner!
System 4: Post-Win Scenarios
*Play UNDER on any team against the total after a win by 21 or more points against an opponent, after three or more straight games when 70 total points or more were scored. (29-8, L10 years)
The theory here is one team has played in a series of high-scoring games and the public is likely to assume that will continue.
The foe in this hook-up is off an impressive victory and the oddsmakers are certain the wagering masses will take the bait on wanting a higher-scoring affair.
Clearly, the exact opposite happens more than three-quarters of the time, and the wise bettor looks for a peak on the total and punches the UNDER.
System 5: Low Totals for Poor Offensive Teams
*Play OVER on conference rivals when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in a game involving two poor offensive teams (280 to 330 YPG) after seven or more contests. (66-26, L32 years)
The first part to pay attention to is the volume of games played. This tells us they have played enough conference and non-conference clashes to establish a pattern of bad offensive football.
This has presumably led to falling totals for both clubs and now the number is so low the value it might have had three games ago has disappeared. That makes this OVER wager a nice contrarian choice.
