SELECT SCORE:
With the midpoint of another NFL season in the rearview mirror, we next look ahead as football bettors for a strong closing rush and making hay (money) for the NFL playoffs.
As we have often talked about on these pages, sports betting is a continual process of staying with what has worked while always being on the lookout for change. No year in recent memory has brought forth like 2024 for football bettors and sportsbooks alike.
In the initial several weeks, sportsbooks were eclipsing records of not only money wagered but profits they were taking in on favorites who were not only failing to cover but losing outright, which was destroying parlays and teasers.
Sportsbooks executives were smiling all day long while others were more coy with wry smiles trying to contain their delight. As fun as that was, the next week saw the favorites beginning winning and covering the spread, not just for a week, but three consecutive weeks of a betting tsunami, which had GMs of the books unable to recall a worse period for the place that takes the bets.
Those extremes continued, going both ways, much like global warming, where some have gone through the hottest summers followed by the coldest winters in the same year.
What does that have to do with betting the NFL? Everything.
Midseason Adjustments Are Critical To Building a Bankroll
That year saw far-reaching extremes, it’s not always that volatile but it’s often changeable and you as the bettor have to spot trends and be willing to go along if necessary.
Case in point, teams that won their division the prior year and are favored to do so again. In the NFL, roughly half the teams that won their division the previous year do not repeat. If you are looking at a team that played like they would be a Super Bowl contender for years after a 7-2 start and making it to their conference championship after a 13-4 campaign and this year are sitting at 3-6, you have to let them go.
A collection of changes could have happened that impacted this club far greater than anyone would have imagined. Don’t live in the past, wager in the present. The important aspect is to understand what made that team tumble and wager on them how they are, not how they were.
Follow In-Season Trends Wisely
Each NFL season has its own flavor. By following trends, you can isolate situations unique to that season and capitalize on them in a given year. Here are random examples.
- Home/Road Differentials by Team or Conference
- Underdogs Covering Spreads of +7 or more
- Home Underdogs Covering Spread of +3 or lower
- Total Over 50 Trending OVER or UNDER in a Particular Year
There could be several others and if you want to win your bets, you want to be tied into the information so you can be like a wise guy.
At the same time, be ready to cut bait in a week or two notice, because as quickly as trends can wash ashore, they can dry up in no time.
Never Assume Anything in the Last Month of an NFL Season
If you partake in watching or listening to NFL shows, always have your radar set on high for garbage alerts or insightful analysis.
Here are bad information tips:
“They Need or Have to Win to Make the Playoffs”
The statement might be true, just not always the outcome. A doctor tells 20 patients they need to lose 15 pounds to be healthier. How many actually accomplish it?
“They’re Due (Fill in Team) for a Big Effort”
The word “due” doesn’t mean “will”, it is a speculative word. Just because they should be based on recent circumstances doesn’t mean they will. Performing thorough handicapping over a team’s last three outings might be a better indicator of their next performance.
“No way this team favored by 15 points doesn’t cover!”
We can all agree this statement is true in principle and should be true in application. The underdog’s had a bad season and wants it to be over with two or three games left. The favorite knows it will win; however, they aren’t playing to beat the point spread, they just want to win the mismatch.
The favorite comes out playing to their skill level and they can take away their opponent’s will for an easy victory. What happens if the fave lacks motivation and the underdog has a fluky play or two? This leads to quick points and the dog suddenly becomes interested and ultimately makes it a game to cover. Always look to make the case for the large underdog, you can always pass.
In the end, do what you do best when it comes to betting on the NFL later in the season. Remember, always be on the lookout for trends to improve your win percentage and bankroll.
