NCAAF Pick: Pittsburgh to Win ACC (+2800) at BetRivers
Florida State and Clemson may be the cream of the ACC crop, but the Pittsburgh Panthers are the smarter pick on the NCAAF odds board.
Florida State’s going to be good this year! They’ve got an established stud quarterback in Jordan Travis, whom they’ve wisely surrounded with improved talent at every position – including the offensive line. And that FSU defense just might be the best in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
That means it’s time to fade the heck out of Florida State. The top favorites on the NCAAF futures market usually come at a premium price, inflated by public expectation and the betting that comes with it. FSU definitely fits the bill after opening as +175 favorites to win the ACC.
But just when we were about to leap into the jaws of the Clemson Tigers, it seems the sharps have gotten there first. As we go to press, Clemson is now on top of the NCAAF odds board, moving up from +200 to as short as +130 at Caesars Sportsbook; Florida State remains in second at +140.
Here Comes Carolina?
Good thing we have options. The North Carolina Tar Heels are a compelling third favorite at +1200 after opening at +600 – and there are a lot of similarities between them and the Top 2. It’s all about the quarterback; Florida State has Travis, Clemson has Cade Klubnik, and North Carolina has Drake Maye. All three should get more support this year than they did in 2022.
There are issues, though. Klubnik and the Tigers mauled North Carolina (+7 at home) 39-10 in last year’s ACC Championship Game, before getting mauled themselves 31-14 by Tennessee (+4) at the Orange Bowl. Both Clemson (Garrett Riley) and UNC (Chip Lindsey) will be working with new offensive coordinators, and they might need to stockpile a bit more talent if they want to give their young quarterbacks the best chance to succeed.
But who else is there? The Louisville Cardinals were the only other ACC team being given a “real” shot of winning the conference when the college football odds first hit the board, but even Louisville has fallen from +800 to +1200 in early betting. Maybe this will all be a bit much for first-year head coach Jeff Brohm to chew, even if Louisville has one of the easier schedules to work with – and a former Brohm acolyte at quarterback in Purdue transfer Jack Plummer.
Meet Me in the Middle
That leaves three notable teams in the third tier of the ACC futures pack:
- Miami Hurricanes (+1600)
- North Carolina State Wolfpack (+1800)
- Pittsburgh Panthers (+2000)
You could make an argument for betting on any of these fringe contenders at top online sportsbooks– in fact, you could bet on all three, but there hasn’t been much buzz around NC State. While the Wolfpack get to play both Clemson (Week 9) and North Carolina (Week 13) at home, they will also host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on September 9. Do they have enough offense to compete after losing WR Devin Carter to West Virginia?
Miami looks like a more compelling choice for our college football picks. They’ve got the most upside after going 5-7 last year, and again, it’s all about putting the right crew around QB Tyler Van Dyke, starting with new offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson.
But we’re going with Pitt in the end. Not only do they have the longest odds of this group, but the Panthers are also generating lots of interest from the sharps, who point at Boston College Eagles transfer Phil Jurkovec as the right quarterback to potentially put this team over the top. The improvements they’ve made on the defensive line could prove even more important.
Afterthoughts
There are seven other teams in the ACC this year, but we’re not going to recommend betting on any of them for any purpose other than entertainment:
- Duke Blue Devils (+3000)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+5000)
- Syracuse Orange (+8000)
- Virginia Tech Hokies (+8000)
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+10000)
- Boston College Eagles (+15000)
- Virginia Cavaliers (+15000)
That doesn’t mean you won’t find some betting value somewhere in this bunch – at least on a single-game basis, against the right opponents. There’s even a good chance that the three teams at the bottom will outperform their regular-season win totals for 2023.
Winning the ACC is another matter. There are no divisions in this conference anymore, so there won’t be the same opportunity for these minnows to sneak into the ACC title game by winning the weaker division like Virginia did back in 2019 when they edged Virginia Tech in the Coastal. Bet accordingly.
NCAAF Pick: Pittsburgh to Win ACC (+2800) at BetRivers
