NFL Pick: 2023 NFC West Winner – San Francisco 49ers (-190) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
The San Francisco 49ers are looking for consecutive division titles for the first time since 2011-12. The NFC West race is usually a good one, but this year’s competition could be one-sided, especially if Brock Purdy is the real deal in San Francisco.
After Purdy took over as the 3rd starting quarterback of the year for the 49ers, they never lost until the NFC Championship Game when he injured his elbow on the opening drive. The 49ers were 3-0 against Seattle last year, a welcome change after the 49ers won a total of 4 games against Seattle when Russell Wilson was the quarterback in 2012-21.
The Landscape
Here are the current odds from BetRivers for the winner of the NFC West in the 2023-24 NFL season:
- San Francisco 49ers (-190)
- Seattle Seahawks (+230)
- Los Angeles Rams (+1000)
- Arizona Cardinals (+2500)
The 49ers have the best odds for any of the NFL’s eight division favorites this year at the top online sportsbooks. We make our pick for the best bet to win the NFC West below.
San Francisco 49ers: Purdy Special
Despite losing the NFC Championship Game again, the 2023 San Francisco 49ers feel like the biggest wild card of this NFL season. They could range anywhere from a Super Bowl-winning juggernaut to a 6-11 team that has to start Sam Darnold for most of the season.
Take quarterback out of it, and you could argue the 49ers have the best roster in the NFL. How many teams can say they have an elite player at every level on offense and defense?
- Backfield – Christian McCaffrey is one of the best in the game and even fullback Kyle Juszczyk is in the conversation for best fullback.
- Wide receiver – Deebo Samuel is one of the strongest receivers, a YAC machine, and he can be used in a variety of ways.
- Tight end – George Kittle is still the best in the game not named Travis Kelce.
- Offensive line – Trent Williams continues to be an elite left tackle.
- Defensive line – Nick Bosa is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.
- Linebacker – Fred Warner is a 2-time All-Pro after last season’s performance.
- Secondary – Safety Talanoa Hufanga was named first-team All-Pro in his 2nd season.
With all these players in place last year, you could say Brock Purdy walked into the best situation any rookie quarterback ever has. That might be why it felt like he would be the first rookie to start a Super Bowl, but his elbow injury doomed the 49ers in Philadelphia as there was no passing threat for the game.
No Security Blanket
With Jimmy Garoppolo in Las Vegas, the California team no longer have that security blanket. Kyle Shanahan can seemingly get any quarterback to complete 65% of his passes and average 8.0 yards per attempt, but Garoppolo and Purdy are the only ones he has been able to win with, in San Francisco.
There will be pressure on Purdy to still look good after the elbow surgery. Prove that it was not the system, the schedule, the talent around him doing the heavy work, and him getting away with some poor throws that should have been intercepted.
With Sam Darnold and Trey Lance backing up Purdy, it would be bad if he was injured or had to be benched after a poor start. But this team has built up so much talent that it should be hard to look bad at quarterback playing for this team. Even if the offense is struggling, the defense should keep them in games.
The only way it can really fall apart is a rash of injuries to both sides of the ball, which is what happened to the 49ers in 2020 following their Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs.
Seattle Seahawks: Speaking of One-Year Wonders
It took 10 years, but Geno Smith finally had his breakout year in the NFL in 2022. He tossed 30 touchdown passes, led the NFL with 69.8% completions, and led the Seahawks to the playoffs despite a subpar defense.
It was an unexpectedly great season for Geno, but now the question is can he sustain it another year or even improve on it?
The concern already is that Smith’s numbers were down over the final 6 games. Maybe some of that was the weather getting cooler, and the Seahawks played tougher defenses like the Jets and 49ers (twice).
Less Traveled Path
But Smith’s career arc has been so unusual that it is hard to make a projection for him. The 2022 season was essentially just his 3rd season as a starter in the NFL, and his first since the 2014 season with the Jets.
We are still learning things about Smith’s career, and one thing he did uncharacteristically last year was lead a couple of fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives against the Rams or else both teams would have been 7-10.
But Smith will welcome the draft selection of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will be his No. 3 wide receiver to form an excellent trio with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Smith-Njigba was the first wideout off the board this year, and many analysts considered him the best prospect in this class.
If the Seahawks can keep Kenneth Walker healthy at running back after the flashes he showed as a rookie, then the Seahawks may have an improved offense that can finally put some more cracks into the San Francisco defense it was 0-3 against.
Subpar
Pete Carroll’s defense still leaves something to be desired and bringing back a 33-year-old Bobby Wagner is not going to fix all these problems for the No. 25 scoring defense.
On the bright side, Carroll has only coached 3 defenses in 23 years in the NFL that finished 20th or lower in scoring defense. Carroll has not had a top 10 defense in Seattle since 2016, but if the Seahawks could improve to that 12-to-16 range, then that would probably be enough for the Smith-led offense to have another winning season.
But for a division title, you have to start scoring some touchdowns on the 49ers, and that will remain a difficult task.
Los Angeles Rams: 3 Studs and 50 Duds
It might get silly to start saying the Rams have 3 great players and 50 randoms, but is it really that far off? We know about the Matthew Stafford to Cooper Kupp connection on offense, and Aaron Donald is still a beast on defense. None of that trio finished 2022 healthy, leading to the Rams finishing with the worst record (5-12) for a defending Super Bowl champion in NFL history.
But what about the rest of the team? After cutting so much veteran talent and not having the draft picks to properly replenish the team, the Rams are looking to start players like wide receiver Ben Skowronek and a couple of undrafted free-agent linebackers like Christian Rozeboom and Michael Hoecht. These might as well be created Madden players you see in Year 30 of your franchise.
Lacking Talent
Sean McVay can still claim he is one of the best head coaches around, but every coach is at the mercy of the talent around them. This is simply not enough talent, and these star players are no guarantee to last 17 games this year.
The Rams went all out for a Super Bowl ring in 2021, and that is commendable. But there are going to be some lean years before the Rams start to make that climb again.
Arizona Cardinals: I’ll Eat My Keyboard If They Win the West
With the 2023 Arizona Cardinals, you have the NFL team with the worst Super Bowl odds and the lowest win total of this season. It is fitting too because Jonathan Gannon was not an inspiring head coaching hire from Philadelphia.
Quarterback Kyler Murray tore his ACL last December and may not be ready until mid-season. The Cardinals were not winning with him last year. Take away a 7-0 start in 2021 and this team has never consistently won under Murray. Backup Colt McCoy is 0-22 as a starter when his team allows 20 points.
Losing Leadership
The Cardinals also lost veterans like J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins. That’s only a leading pass rusher and No. 1 wide receiver. Instead of drafting someone like Will Anderson, the Cardinals traded down and selected an offensive tackle.
That draft trade with Houston makes things exciting for the future for Arizona, but the present is going to be awful. At the very least, this season could lead to the drafting of USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick in 2024.
Conclusion: And the Division Winner Is…
The Cardinals winning this division could have +250000 odds and it probably still would not be worth a bet. The better bet on that team is to get the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Just when you think the Rams could come back to compete with their best players healthy, you remember they still have to field 50 other players. Then you remember how the offensive line looked against the 49ers last year, and it is just not a good matchup for the Rams.
Two-Horse Race
This is again between Seattle and San Francisco. The Seahawks were leading the race at 6-3 last year before things reversed and the 49ers won 12 in a row before losing in the title game.
On the surface, you are betting between which one of Purdy and Smith continues their 2022 success and shows it was not a fluke. Realistically, you are betting on the 49ers having a far better roster and fewer holes. The quarterback situation is a concern, but that is true of every NFC West team right now.
The Pick
The difference is the 49er have the system and talent to make any quarterback look good. Maybe Purdy is the real deal too. Either way, it is not your best value bets for a division winner, but the 49ers could be the closest thing to a lock this year.
NFL Pick: 2023 NFC West Winner – San Francisco 49ers (-190) at BetRivers
