I’ve added three MLB player props for the later games on the slate tonight. Let’s begin the week with some profit!
Picks Summary
- Joe Ryan Over 6.5 K’s (+100) at Bet365
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at Bet365
- Joc Pederson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) at Bet365
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Monday, July 03, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Joe Ryan will take the hill for the Twins tonight. He’s a pitcher on the cusp of making the All-Star Game but didn’t get an invite. Hopefully, he takes that personally and pitches a gem.
Ryan has struck out 23.6% of batters in the last month. He’s also walked just 1.6% of batters. While he’s struggled a bit against righties, he’s facing a Royals lineup that has struggled to hit the ball at a high rate in the first place.
The Royals have combined to hit a .105 ISO and wOBA of .263 over the last month against righties. The lineup has also struck out 23.9% of the time against righties. Ryan’s not earning a high strikeout rate against lefties. But the Royals lefties have struck out 27.2% of the time against righties in the last month.
His strikeout numbers against lefties will rise, and his strikeouts against righties could also rise against this Kansas City lineup.
I’ve got Ryan striking out a solid portion of batters tonight.
MLB Prop Pick: Joe Ryan Over 6.5 K’s (+100) at Bet365
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, July 03, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at PETCO Park
We don’t know the pitcher for the Padres tonight, but we have confirmation that the Angels will send out Jaime Barria tonight. Barria has allowed a .323 ISO and wOBA of .427 to his last 68 batters. He’s been awful against lefties and righties, but even more to lefties.
Lefties have hit a .348 ISO and wOBA of .555 against the righty in Barria’s last 28 plate appearances against them. Barria has also allowed 38.1% of line drives and has induced under 29% of ground balls against lefties in the last month.
On top of that, he’s giving up 47.6% of hard contact to lefties and rarely getting swinging strikes or whiffs.
He’ll face Juan Soto, who is red hot against righties. The lefty is slugging a .254 ISO and wOBA of .428 against righties in the last month. He’s also minimized strikeouts to 15.5% and has hit over 26% of line drives and fly balls with 71.9% of hard contact against righties in the last month.
I’ve got Soto earning multiple hits and plenty of total bases.
MLB Prop Pick: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at Bet365
Seattle Mariners vs. San Francisco Giants
Monday, July 03, 2023 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Bryan Woo has been dreadful against lefties this season. It’s unbelievable. Lefties have hit a .394 ISO and wOBA of .547 against Woo through 36 plate appearances. However, despite these discrepancies, he’s only faced 95 batters this season and has seen more righties than lefties.
The Giants won’t be like the other teams. They’ll have more lefties than righties in the lineup tonight. San Francisco should have five lefties in the lineup to face Woo. He has allowed 40% of line drives and 40% of fly balls and has induced only 12% of ground balls against lefties.
That’s why I love the matchup for Joc Pederson. Pederson is a lefty in the three spots for the Giants. He’s hit a .169 ISO and wOBA of .381 against his last 79 righties faced. He’s also struck out only 20.3% of the time against righties through the last month and has hit over 30 % of line drives with 71.4% of hard contact over the last 30 days.
Pederson has walked a lot as a left-handed batter going up against righties, but Woo has limited walks to 8.3% against lefties since joining the big league roster. Woo is still not getting a high whiff percentage of CSWhiff percentage and is allowing a 16% barrel percentage. That barrel percentage against lefties proves why he’s been so bad against lefties.
Meanwhile, Pederson has hit a 10.2% barrel percentage against righties and has a BABIP of .326. He’s been perfect for the Giants near the top of the order and should be a true table-setter against Woo and the Mariners tonight.
Let’s back Pederson to earn at least two total bases tonight.
MLB Prop Pick: Joc Pederson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) at Bet365
