We’ve got a massive slate of games today. I’ve added multiple player props with the best value at the MLB odds boards for the later games on the slate. Let’s earn some profit!
Picks Summary
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) at Bet365
- Reese Olson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110) at BetMGM
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) at Bet365
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, June 24, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
It’ll be Ronel Blanco on the mound for the Astros tonight. Blanco has struggled poorly against lefties over the last 30 days, allowing them to hit a .250 ISO and wOBA of .387 while allowing 36.8% of fly balls and 26.3% of line drives.
He’s also not getting a ton of ground balls and has given up over 63% of hard contact to lefties in the last month.
On the other hand, the Dodgers haven’t been elite offensively. But Freddie Freeman has still hit a wOBA of .358 in the last month against righties. He’s also smacked 32.7% of line drives in the last month against righties and has hit 44.2% of hard contact.
Blanco’s struggles have carried over from the start of the year, and he will have difficulty facing a guy like Freddie Freeman.
Freeman has also hit just 32.7% of ground balls, so we’re looking for high-hard contact against Blanco. He’s one of the best lefties in the game.
MLB Pick: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) at Bet365
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Saturday, June 24, 2023 – 7:15 PM EDT at Comerica Park
The Twins have been embarrassing against righties over the last month. The projected lineup has struck out 33.3% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. Not a single player has struck out under 23% of the time against righties.
The Twins have also walked 8.4% of the time and have hit a .306 wOBA and ISO of .165 in the last month. That’s not going to get the job done against righties.
They’ll face Reese Olson of the Tigers, who has earned 23.8% of strikeouts over the last month, with 27.8% against lefties.
The Twins will have at least four lefties in the lineup tonight. Olson has also allowed teams to hit just a .149 ISO and wOBA of .296 with only 6.2% of walks. He’s put together some solid outings in the last month and should be able to get deep in this game and earn many strikeouts.
Olson has earned a high whiff and swinging strike percentage in the last month against righties, but he’s earning more strikeouts against lefties. That should fare well against this Twins lineup tonight.
MLB Pick: Reese Olson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110) at BetMGM
Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, June 24, 2023 – 8:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The San Diego Padres aren’t getting much offense from their guys right now. However, it’s not the fault of Fernando Tatis Jr. He’s hit a .314 ISO and wOBA of .421 against his last 97 righties. Tatis Jr. has also hit nearly 23% of line drives and 61.4% of hard contact in the last month against righties.
He’ll bat leadoff tonight against the Nationals. Washington will send out Josiah Gray, a righty who has struggled against righties. Gray has allowed a .390 ISO and wOBA of .438 to his last 65 righties. He’s also watched his last 65 righties hit 31.2% of fly balls and close to 40% of hard contact. Gray isn’t a threat to earn a lot of whiffs or swinging strikeouts against righties, either.
Despite all of that, he’s also giving up a barrel percentage of 14.6% and has only allowed a BABIP of .262. Maintaining such a low BABIP while allowing high numbers in almost every category against righties is hard.
Tatis Jr. has been hitting a 10% barrel percentage in the last month, and while he might hit ground balls a little too often recently, he still has a chance of hitting hard contact that could result in a ground ball down the line for an extra-base hit.
He matches up well against Gray tonight and could even get three plate appearances against him.
On the season, Gray has allowed a .218 ISO and wOBA of .356. His struggles are every day against righties. They’re also not going away. And there’s no better hitter than Tatis right now, especially against righties.
MLB Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) at Bet365
