The top sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s baseball action and two games, in particular, look interesting and worth investing in:Â
- Mariners vs. Angels
- Cubs vs. Giants
For your MLB player props today, we recommend investing in strong performances from Seattle’s Luis Castillo, Chicago’s Marcus Stroman, and San Francisco’s Anthony DeSclafani.
Picks Summary
- Luis Castillo Under 4.5 Total Hits Allowed (+100) at BetMGM
- Marcus Stroman Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-125) at BetMGM
- Anthony DeSclafani Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-154) at BetMGM
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, June 09, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Luis Castillo (Seattle)
Seattle starts Luis Castillo tonight. As evident in the fact that he ranks ninth in ERA, Castillo is one of baseball’s best pitchers this season.
In his most recent starts, he is pitching even more strongly than ninth-best: he has allowed a total of one run in his last three starts, which totaled 19 innings.
Staying Hot?
His last start was arguably his most impressive one: he allowed one run in seven innings to a Texas team that ranks number one in runs per game.
Castillo is so successful because he relies on various pitches, each of which is hard for batters to hit. The fastball, slider, and sinker are his three favorite pitches to throw.
Batters hit .190 against his fastball, .167 against his slider, and .203 against his sinker. His fastball and slider are especially helpful for his strikeout rate.
High Velocity
For his fastball, he relies on high velocity — this pitch averages 96 mph — and on good locational variety in that, he evenly distributes it along both sides of the plate.
Relative to his fastball, his slider is much slower, so he can use either pitch to keep hitters off balance by creating an intense change of pace.
He’ll also use the fastball and slider to change the batter’s eye level in that he likes to bury his slider and elevate his fastball, thus further keeping hitters off-balance.
The Pick
Tonight, Castillo’s outlook is solid because the Angels rank last in slugging .334 against his pitches from righties. In addition to matching up poorly against him, their history against him is already bad.
Of teams that he’s faced multiple times, the Angels rank tied for the second-lowest BA against him: in three starts against the Angels, he’s yielding a .167 BA.
For the above reasons, expect Castillo to allow fewer than five hits for the third time in his last four starts.
MLB Pick: Luis Castillo Under 4.5 Total Hits Allowed (+100) at BetMGM
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, June 09, 2023 – 10:15 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Marcus Stroman (Cubs)
Marcus Stroman starts for the Cubs tonight. Stroman is a top-tier pitcher: he ranks eighth in ERA.
He is also pitching as well as anyone right now: he has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last four starts. Moreover, he has allowed zero earned runs in his last two starts.
His Best Start
His most impressive start came on May 29 when he held the mighty Rays to one hit and one walk in nine innings.
Stroman’s pitching arsenal is laden with quality pitches. He relies most especially on his sinker and slurve, which yield a .191 BA and .180 BA, respectively.
With both pitches, he does a great job of avoiding the middle of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Sneaky Slurve
While his sinker enjoys strong movement, his slurve is hard for batters to track with its high spin rate.
High spin rate is a typical feature of Stroman’s pitches in general in addition to strong location.
He’ll mix two other pitches in less extensively and that likewise show good spin and good location: his cutter and fastball.
The former pitch yields a .179 BA while opponents are batting .043 against his fastball.
The Giants
San Francisco’s lineup is in an awful spot because tonight is its first game back from hitting in Coors Field in Denver.
It is difficult to adjust from batting in a super hitters-friendly ballpark to batting in a pitcher-friendly one.
The Pick
Even if the Giants weren’t in this bad spot, they match up poorly against Stroman. They rank 26th in slugging against his two favorite pitches from righties.
Furthermore, Stroman himself is in a good spot because he likes pitching in San Francisco where he enjoys a 2.37 ERA in three career starts.
MLB Pick: Marcus Stroman Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-125) at BetMGM
Anthony DeSclafani (Giants)
Anthony DeSclafani starts for San Francisco tonight. He is one of the less obvious candidates to invest in because of his last start in which the Orioles accrued five earned runs against him.
One cannot discount DeSclafani tonight, because the Orioles, one of the best teams in baseball, are tough.
Other Factors
Baseball betting is too complex to judge a pitcher solely based on the number of runs he’s allowed because there are other factors in play that are often more predictive. DeSclafani, in his last start, did a great job of inducing soft contact.
What is likewise critical to note is that, in terms of producing spin and velocity in his pitches and in terms of throwing strikes (as evident in his first-pitch strike rate), he looked great.
These details indicate that we will get his best version of himself tonight.
The Matchup
DeSclafani has a great track record this season against the teams that match up really poorly with him. So it is decisive for our MLB Pick that he gets an easier test.
Like the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals teams that he held to a combined total of three earned runs, the Cubs slug below .390 against his four favorite pitches from righties.
Moreover, he already has a strong track record against Cubs’ batters. Only Ian Happ, who happens to be suffering terrible form right now — Happ is slugging .182 in June — has an extra-base hit (a double) off him.
The Pick
Overall, the Cubs are hitting very poorly. They have mustered seven runs in their past four games combined. The West Coast has not been kind to their lineup.
MLB Pick: Anthony DeSclafani Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-154) at BetMGM
