The Buffalo Bills have been in the upper echelons of the NFL for several years, courtesy of the golden arm of Josh Allen. However, they have yet to make the leap to Super Bowl stardom but could this be the year they finally get to the promised land?
Picks Summary
- Over 10.5 Wins (-150) at Caesars Sportsbook
- AFC East Winners +125 at Caesars Sportsbook
- Super Bowl Champions +900 at Caesars Sportsbook
Bettors Edge
- The Bills have won the AFC East in the last three consecutive years.
- The Bills have averaged 12.3 wins per season over the last three years.
- The Bills were ranked No. 2 in total yards per game (397.6 YPG) and points per game (28.4 PPG), trailing only the Chiefs in both categories last season.
In the Last Episode
- Buffalo Bills: 2022 Record (13-3)
- Super Bowl Odds: +900
- AFC East Division Winner: +125
- Total Wins: 10.5 (Over -150)
The Bills went 13-3 last year – the second time in their past three seasons – won their third consecutive AFC East division title, and defeated the Dolphins in the opening round of the playoffs. Yet, they were then stymied by the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-10, in the division round and bounced from the postseason.
It was an agonizing way for the Bills to end what had been a spectacular regular season campaign. Josh Allen, the face of the franchise, was held without a passing touchdown and tossed an interception in the 17-point loss while getting upstaged by his equally talented contemporary, Joe Burrow.
Better Blocking
But what went wrong last year? Also, will this 2023 edition be better or worse than last year’s iteration? Well, let’s start with what the Bills have now that they didn’t have last season.
First and foremost, Buffalo should have a better offensive line as they added two guards in free agency, signing David Edwards and Connor McGovern, and then selected Florida guard, O’Cyrus Torrence, in the second round of the draft. That’s a lot of quality beef injected into the interior line which should allow Allen more time in the pocket.
We should also note that the Bills also selected the best pass-catching tight end in April’s draft when they plucked Utah’s Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick. If the kid pays off, that will be a big win for this team as it will allow them to pair him in twin-tight end sets with another formidable TE in Dawson Knox.
We should also note that they signed former Patriot, Damien Harris, to share the rushing duties with James Cook and veteran Latavius Murray. Therefore, I don’t believe the departure of last year’s starting tailback, Devin Singletary, will be a liability. And more to the point, Damien Harris has proven to be a willing and capable blocker which will give Allen another layer of protection in the pocket.
The one regret Bills fans should have is that the team failed to get a complementary piece to Stefon Diggs in free agency. Gabe Davis is more of a No. 3 wideout but perhaps Khalil Shakir will get more looks than he did last year in his rookie season. Shakir’s blazing speed could prove to be the missing piece that can put this team over the top against the elite. But even if he’s not, the Bills still have plenty of offense to go around.
Defensively Speaking
The injury to Von Miller last year turned this Bills’ defense from one of the best to a mere also-ran. His absence was profound and injury reports indicate that he could be back on the field starting in Week 1 but the Bills might be wise to give the 34-year-old veteran as much time as possible to fully recover.
However, looking at the bright side of things, the Bills will have cornerback Tre’Davious White in the lineup at the beginning of this season after sitting on the shelf for the first three months of last season. Veteran safety Micah Hyde will also be back after spending most of last year recovering from a neck injury. Lastly, the Bills further bolstered their secondary when they signed a talented young corner in Taylor Rapp, the Rams’ second-round pick in 2019.
What Does 2023 Project for the Bills?
The Bills have more experience, painful as it may be, and will be the class of the division again this season. I realize that their AFC East rivals have all improved so those six games won’t be a cakewalk but they should win four of six right there.
I also see wins over the Raiders in Week 2 (home), Commanders in Week 3 (away), Jaguars in Week 5 (London), Giants in Week 6 (home), Buccaneers in Week 8 (home), Broncos in Week 10 (home), Cowboys in Week 15 (home), and Chargers in Week 16 (away).
If we add it all up that’s a dozen wins and should be smooth sailing for over 10.5 victories on the season. With that understood, I don’t see any other foe challenging for the division title which means this would also necessitate a bet on the Bills to win their fourth AFC East crown.
As for Buffalo’s Super Bowl chances, I say why not? The Bengals and Chiefs are their most formidable adversaries but I believe this team is better than last year’s edition so I would advise a wager on the Bills as Super Bowl champs at the top online sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: Over 10.5 Wins (-150) at Caesars Sportsbook
NFL Pick: AFC East Winners +125 at Caesars Sportsbook
NFL Pick: Super Bowl Champions +900 at Caesars Sportsbook
