NFL Pick: 2023 Carolina Panthers Under 7.5 Wins (+105) at BetRivers
The Carolina Panthers were one drive away from winning the NFC South last year, but as has been the case for years in Carolina, the team came up short. The Panthers have now lost 50 straight games when trailing in the 4th quarter.
But a realistic shot at a home playoff game and one blockbuster trade to land the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft are not bad consolation prizes for a season that looked so lost with the team having to fire coach Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start and trading away Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers.
Now the team embarks on an entirely new era with head coach Frank Reich and No. 1 quarterback Bryce Young from Alabama. The Panthers are building something for the future, but could the state of the NFC and a favorable schedule provide a chance at competing right away if Young is the real deal?
We examine a runner-up from the NFC South last year.
Significant Modifications
The new regime in Carolina sees wholesale changes among the coaching staff and obviously quarterback.
The Draft Trade Lands Bryce Young
The Panthers needed a major move at quarterback as no team in 2023 should be going with a Sam Darnold or Andy Dalton as their starter at the most important position. The Panthers only had the No. 9 pick in the draft, but they were able to send it, a 2024 1st-round pick, and 2nd-round picks in the 2023 and 2025 draft to move up to No. 1 for Young.
Carolina also had to send No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Moore to the Bears to complete the trade. That part was a bummer since Moore was the best receiver the team had in recent years, but they wanted to make sure they got their quarterback in a draft where 3-of-4 picks at the top were all signal callers before a big drop-off.
Does Size Matter?
With Young, the Panthers are getting the shortest quarterback in the league as he is only 5’10”. But Russell Wilson (5’11”) and Kyler Murray (5’10”) have hopefully dispelled some of the stigma against quarterbacks who are not 6’0”.
Maybe a bigger concern than Young’s height is his overall frame as he will have to show he can handle the wear and tear of a full NFL season with sacks and contact by huge, athletic defenders.
But Young’s selling point at Alabama is the way he can improvise on the move and his pocket presence. It is reminiscent of an early Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson, and that is the kind of quarterback Young has the potential to be more than he does a runner like Michael Vick or Justin Fields. He wants to throw the ball first and foremost.
Alabama has recently produced some interesting prospects at quarterback in the NFL, including Mac Jones, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa. Hopefully, Young is more like Tua and Hurts.
Fresh Start for Frank Reich
No one has been adapting to new quarterbacks every year quite like Frank Reich. When he was in Indianapolis (2018-22), he had a different primary quarterback every season, including a wide range of talents from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan.
The good news this time is Reich can start fresh with a No. 1 rookie prospect with talent like Young. They should be a good match as Young has the mobility to run the kind of traditional play-action and shotgun mixture that Reich wants to see in his offense.
But Reich’s game management in Indy does have some spotty results on his resume. His Colts blew 5 leads of 13-plus points, or as many as the Colts had in the previous 14 seasons combined. Reich is 11-21-1 (.338) in games where his team has an opportunity for a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime. That record is below average, but at least it is infinitely better than Matt Rhule, who was 0-16.
The Weapons
If this is going to be a surprisingly good team in 2023, the Panthers will have to maximize every drop of talent they have around their rookie quarterback. We already know they traded away Christian McCaffrey last season and D.J. Moore in March, so that means the top wideout and running back are gone.
The Panthers also did not bring back Foreman despite his strong finish to 2022. Instead, they are going with Miles Sanders, who made his first Pro Bowl in a career year for the Eagles last year. Sanders is a solid runner, but he has done almost nothing as a receiver in the last 3 seasons after showing some skill there as a rookie in 2019. Chuba Hubbard is still his backup.
Running back is still more solidified for the Panthers than tight end and wide receiver. Hayden Hurst, who had detractors for being a 25-year-old 1st-round pick in 2018, is hoping the 4th team will be the charm after not really catching on as a lead tight end for the Ravens, Falcons, and Bengals in his career.
Without Moore, the new wide receiver corps is basically all potential and resurrecting past glory:
- Adam Thielen comes over from Minnesota as a reliable, high catch rate option, but he will be 33 years old and has not been a No. 1 wide receiver since 2018.
- DJ Chark is an interesting addition after he had a Pro Bowl season in 2019 for Jacksonville, but injury has limited him to 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
- Terrace Marshall was a 2nd-round pick by the Panthers in 2021, and he improved in his 2nd season with 490 yards, but he has to step up even more this season.
- The Panthers also used a 2nd-round pick this year on Jonathan Mingo, who had his best year at Ole Miss in 2022. But he still had 247 of his 861 receiving yards in a single game against a lousy Vanderbilt defense, so there are questions about how consistent he can be in the NFL.
It is not the worst receiving corps in the NFL, and Reich comes from an Indianapolis offense that basically just had Michael Pittman Jr. the last few years. But there is not a player in position to be dominant in this group. It is more of a receiver-by-committee approach that will require a rookie quarterback to elevate young talent and help veterans past their prime find some of that old glory.
2023 Schedule Analysis
Time will tell the truth, but the Panthers made the most logical choice with the No. 1 pick in the draft by taking Young. However, it is hard for a rookie quarterback to excel right away, especially one with the pressure of a No. 1 pick.
Of the 26 quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall since 1967, all but 1 player failed to win more than 7 games as a starter in their rookie season. That staggering fact even includes the likes of Peyton Manning (3-13 in 1998), Joe Burrow (2-7-1 in 2020), and John Elway (4-6 in 1983). Only Andrew Luck on the 2012 Colts (11-5) was able to pull off a winning season.
The good news is the Panthers, who traded up for that No. 1 pick, are not as bad off as most of the teams who draft No. 1 overall. But even if the Panthers went with veteran Andy Dalton to start this season, the Panthers have a tough early schedule with:
- Falcons (Week 1)
- Saints (Week 2)
- Seahawks (Week 3)
- Vikings (Week 4)
- Lions (Week 5)
- Dolphins (Week 6)
None of those teams are expected to be world-beaters, but they all have higher playoff odds than Carolina right now.
After the Week 7 bye, things are looking up with games against the Texans (Week 8), Colts (Week 9), and Bears (Week 10).
But then the Panthers have 3 straight road games after hosting Dallas (Week 11). Later, the Panthers have their final road game in Jacksonville (Week 17), a division favorite, before closing with Tampa Bay (Week 18) at home.
The Pick
With Brady gone, a few wins in the division are certainly possible for Carolina, and this team can compete with the likes of the Texans, Bears, and a revenge game for Reich against the Colts after they fired him.
The Panthers may finally end their streak of not having a 4th-quarter comeback win, but it is hard to pick this team in its early state to have enough to win more than 7 games this season. Take the under 7.5 wins for your NFL ATS bets.
NFL Pick: 2023 Carolina Panthers Under 7.5 Wins (+105) at BetRivers
2022 Recap: Another Era Ends
The Panthers finished the Matt Rhule era in the same manner they always had: Losing close games and never winning the high-scoring games. The Panthers lost some winnable games against the Browns, Giants, and Cardinals as veteran Baker Mayfield proved to be a poor fit at quarterback.
After getting walloped 37-15 by the 49ers, Rhule was fired and star running back Christian McCaffrey was soon traded to the 49ers. San Francisco ended the coach’s tenure and took the team’s best running back.
But in an odd twist, the 1-5 Panthers instantly had their best moment of the season under interim coach Steve Wilks. They beat Tom Brady and the Buccaneers 21-3 despite starting P.J. Walker at quarterback for the benched Mayfield. You know it was the end of the road for Brady when he was outplayed by Walker in a division game.
If that was not odd enough, then the Panthers instantly became a superior rushing team after trading McCaffrey than they were with him. Instead of utilizing McCaffrey as a receiver, the Panthers moved to a ground-and-pound offense with D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Foreman had 5 games with over 110 rushing yards the rest of the season.
But not everything was consistent with this run game. The Panthers would rush for over 220 yards one week and fail to crack 40 yards the next, which is something that happened twice last year. Carolina’s upset 30-24 win in Seattle saw the run game produce 223 yards, but in an important home game against the Steelers the following week, Foreman and the running game were shut down to the tune of 21 yards. The defense also let Mitch Trubisky engineer a 12-minute touchdown drive.
But if that upset loss at home was not wild enough, the Panthers with Sam Darnold now at quarterback, stole one back the following week from the Lions in an upset that saw them rush for 320 yards just when it looked like Detroit was surging towards the postseason. That put the Panthers at 6-9 and very much in contention for a division title.
But in Week 17, the Panthers were in Tampa Bay for the de facto division title game, and Brady played his best game, dropping the Panthers 30-24 with a 4th-quarter comeback. Darnold had his chance to be the hero, but instead he fumbled right away near the goal line in a 24-21 game and the Buccaneers added a short touchdown. It would become the 50th time in a row that the Panthers lost a game when trailing in the fourth quarter or overtime.
An ugly 10-7 win in Week 18 against the Saints helped the Panthers finish 7-10 like the rest of the NFC South who finished behind 8-9 Tampa Bay.
