NFL Pick: 2023 Chicago Bears Under 7.5 Wins (+105) at BetRivers
The Chicago Bears did the unthinkable last season and turned a 2-1 start into a 3-14 finish, earning the No. 1 pick in the draft. But after a huge draft trade to Carolina, the Bears are sticking with quarterback Justin Fields and hoping that he can deliver in his 3rd season with a new No. 1 wide receiver in D.J. Moore.
The Bears have been a trendy pick for improving greatly this year, and Fields is reportedly the player receiving the most bets for NFL MVP. But the Bears only have an over/under win total of 7.5 wins at the top online sportsbooks, and they were miserable on defense and at passing the ball last season.
Can they make a huge leap this season without making any changes at the key positions for change? We look at how far the Bears still have to go.
Significant Modifications
Holding onto the No. 1 pick, the Bears had a chance to move on from Fields and start over. But they traded the pick and are committing to Fields while also returning the same coach and his top coordinators, a bold move if you are expecting to see change and improvement.
The D.J. Moore Addition
Once it was clear the Bears were sticking with Fields, wide receiver became a top draft priority. But in a class where none of the top prospects went until No. 20, and they all project to be a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver this year, it would not make sense for the Bears to use a pick that high on someone in this draft.
So, a selling point on the draft trade with Carolina acquiring the No. 1 pick was the Panthers giving up No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Moore, who had a career-high 7 touchdown catches last year despite having his fewest yards since his rookie season in 2018. But Moore had 3 straight 1,100-yard seasons before 2022, and he would be an instant upgrade to the Bears’ passing game.
A Different Type of Receiver
However, it must be said that Moore is not a game-changing type of receiver like we saw last year with Davante Adams (Raiders), Tyreek Hill (Dolphins), and A.J. Brown (Eagles) all on the move to new teams. Moore is not a high-catch rate target as he’s only caught 59.1% of his targets in his career (55.6% since 2020). He is not a huge red zone threat as he usually has 2-to-4 touchdown catches in a full season. He is not a YAC machine who can do many great things after the catch.
Moore is really a possession receiver with the occasional deep-ball ability. The Bears have a player who can be similar in Darnell Mooney, who was injured last year. The Bears also traded a high 2nd-round pick to Pittsburgh last year for Chase Claypool, who only caught 14-of-29 passes for 140 yards with the Bears in 7 games.
A Better Cast
The collective trio of Moore, Mooney, and Claypool, and the tight-end duo of Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan should give Fields his best receiving corps yet. But the Bears have to show more of a willingness to throw the ball than they did last year.
An NFL offense just does not add D.J. Moore to get magically great. He is not Randy Moss or Terrell Owens by any means, and it is not like he did much to elevate bad offensive situations in Carolina.
But he is at least an upgrade, and the Bears seem to have a plan in place for Fields and the passing game this time. However, they need to see much better accuracy from Fields. According to Pro Football Reference, Fields ranked No. 28 in on-target pass rate in 2022, and all 5 quarterbacks to rank below him are not returning to the job they had, and only Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) may be fortunate enough to start for any team in Week 1 this year.
Retooling the Offensive Line
Another big piece of the puzzle that needed improvement was the offensive line. The Bears added veteran right guard Nate Davis from the Titans, and they used their 1st-round pick on right tackle Darnell Wright.
Both players should be an upgrade over last year, but improving the right side is also going to give the Bears options to move other pieces around. For example, Cody Whitehair played left guard last year, but he could move back to center where he had his best seasons early in his career. Teven Jenkins, who the Bears used the No. 39 pick on in 2021, can move from right guard to left guard. Then there is hope Braxton Jones improves at left tackle in his 2nd season.
But there are metrics that will say the offensive line was not the main issue last year. In fact, ESPN’s blocking metrics have the Bears ranked No. 5 in run block win rate and No. 2 in pass block win rate in 2022.
Holding Too Long?
So, how did Fields have a league-high 55 sacks and a gross 14.7% sack rate in 2022? Quarterbacks have a lot of control over their sack rate. Fields holds onto the ball longer than most quarterbacks, so he invites a lot of pressure by not getting rid of the ball sooner on shorter throws. According to Pro Football Reference, Fields held the ball an average of 2.7 seconds before throwing or getting pressured, the longest time in the league last year.
Between inaccurate throws and taking too many sacks, the Bears had the worst passing offense in the NFL in 2022 with a league-low 5.1 net yards per pass attempt (NY/A). Using NY/A is a good stat since it factors in sacks, which are important and more consistent from year to year than interceptions.
It is hard to make huge leaps and bounds in NY/A after finishing last in the league. The problem is, even if the Bears get a breakout season from Fields, the defense also ranked 32nd in points allowed and 32nd in NY/A, making them the easiest defense to score and pass against.
Can the Defense Be Mediocre?
Matt Eberflus is supposed to be a defensive specialist, but his first year as coach looked more like a Marc Trestman season than the latest great defensive success story for the Bears.
Basically, teams ran all over the Bears and Chicago notched a league-low 20 sacks. Only the Falcons had a lower defensive pressure rate than the Bears (15.9%) according to Pro Football Reference. You know things are awful when safety Jaquan Brisker leads your team with 4.0 sacks. The Bears also traded linebacker Roquan Smith to the Ravens during the season, so there goes another blue-chip talent.
While there is nowhere to go but up here, it would be hard to make a big enough climb to become the type of Chicago defense that can carry a below-average offense to a good record.
Drafting Help
The Bears drafted some defensive tackles in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but they are not expected to be huge 2023 contributors. The Bears acquired linebacker Tremaine Edmunds from Buffalo to help account for the Roquan Smith loss, but he is not a pass rusher.
Where does the pass rush come from? The Bears are hoping for a big season from DeMarcus Walker, who had a career-high 7.0 sacks for the Titans in 2022. But he only has 31 pressures and 9.0 sacks over the last 2 seasons combined, so he is not going to make people forget about the good days of having Khalil Mack in this spot.
The Bears can take some comfort in not having an Aaron Rodgers to face twice a year anymore, and Tom Brady is gone, but this defense is going to get worked by the good offenses on the schedule, and it could cost them dearly in division games against teams expected to score like the Vikings and Lions.
2023 Schedule Analysis
Thanks to Josh Allen breaking out in his 3rd season with Buffalo, we are going to hear how every quarterback with a bad 2-year start is just a season away from stardom. But D.J. Moore is not Stefon Diggs, and until proven otherwise, Fields is not Allen as a passer.
Barring a breakout passing season from Fields, the Bears do not look that dramatically improved, but they should still be able to double their win total or better. The question is does an advantageous schedule and division help them get to over 7.5 wins, or do they fall short at 7-10?
Here are some schedule notes for the Bears for 2023:
- Obviously beating Green Bay has been a problem, but there may be no better time to get a split than hosting the Packers in Week 1 when Jordan Love has to make his 2nd-career start. But a sweep of Green Bay is unlikely.
- A trip to Tampa Bay in Week 2 is also winnable, but keep in mind the Bears were 2-1 last year with a win over the 49ers and still finished 3-14.
- The Bears do have 5 road trips against teams with realistic playoff aspirations, including the Chiefs (Week 3), Chargers (Week 8), Saints (Week 9), Lions (Week 11), and Vikings (Week 6).
- The Broncos (Week 4) and Raiders (Week 7) go to Chicago in the first half of the season, but both teams could be improved after they combined to blow 11 4th-quarter leads last year.
- The schedule after the Week 13 bye is favorable, including games with Detroit (Week 14), Cleveland (Week 15), Arizona (Week 16), Atlanta (Week 17), and at Green Bay to end the season.
- The Bears do not have to play most of the top Super Bowl contenders, including the 49ers, Eagles, Bills, Bengals, and Cowboys.
The Pick
The schedule is certainly nice, but it is hard to shake that No. 32 in scoring defense and passing efficiency combo from last year. A team like that should not be able to make such a huge leap the next year without changing quarterback, coach, or the top two coordinators.
Throw cold water on this Chicago hype and take the under for your NFL ATS bets.
NFL Pick: 2023 Chicago Bears Under 7.5 Wins (+105) at BetRivers
2022 Recap: You Can Run, But You Can’t Do Anything Else
The Bears started 2-1 last year, but any NFL analyst who was not telling you this was fool’s gold was not doing their job well. The Bears lucked out to draw the 49ers in a monsoon in Week 1, and they only beat the Texans after getting an interception late in the game to start in the red zone before kicking a game-winning field goal.
This offense under new coordinator Luke Getsy was not throwing the ball at historical rates early in the season. Maybe it was for the best as Justin Fields barely completed 50% of his passes through 4 games, and he had a 58.7 passer rating.
Coming Up Short
But after a spirited comeback attempt that came up short against Minnesota, Fields seemed to find his legs against the Commanders in a 12-7 loss. He rushed 12 times for 88 yards that night. A week later in New England, Fields made some of his best plays and rushed for another 82 yards and a touchdown in a 33-14 win.
While that would be Chicago’s final win of the season, it did lead to an improved offense with Fields dominating on the ground. He rushed for 178 yards against Miami, a single-game record for a quarterback in any regular season game. A week later, he rushed for 147 yards, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for 140 yards in back-to-back games. Fields finished with 1,143 rushing yards in 15 games, so he could have set the single-season record had he not missed a couple of games.
Running Wild
Thanks to Fields’ rushing contributions, the Bears made history in 2022, becoming the first team to ever rush for at least 230 yards in 5 consecutive games. Despite all this rushing success, the Bears still were not winning games. The 2022 Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose 3 consecutive games when scoring at least 29 points.
Fields’ passing metrics improved, but the Bears were one of the worst offenses at winning close games last season. Fields had several big interceptions and failed game-winning drive attempts in 2022. The Bears were 1-9 at 4th-quarter comeback opportunities, the most such losses in the league in 2022. In his career, Fields is now 1-11 (.083) at 4th-quarter comeback opportunities, the worst record among active starters.
Where’s the Defense?
We are used to seeing the Bears struggle in the passing game, but the defense also did not benefit in Year 1 from the hiring of coach Matt Eberflus, who is a defensive-minded coach. The Bears finished the season ranked last in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed. They were easy to throw on and easy to run on with 31 rushing touchdowns surrendered.
While there is hype for Fields to be good in 2023, people seem to forget that his last start of 2022 in Detroit saw him produce 30 net passing yards on 28 pass plays against one of the league’s worst defenses.
The Bears remain a work in progress.
