NFL Pick: 2023 Dallas Cowboys Over 9.5 Wins (-159) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
The Dallas Cowboys are probably sick of hearing how long it has been since they were in the NFC Championship Game, but the 1995 season was eons ago. With Dak Prescott turning 30 years old and being one of the best, most experienced quarterbacks in the NFC now that Tom Brady (retired by Dallas in the wild-card round) and nemesis Aaron Rodgers (Jets) are gone, it is about time for the Cowboys to do something in January.
The good news is the Cowboys play in a division that has had a new winner every year since 2005, so they will have a chance to take the NFC East back from the Eagles. The better news is the overall state of the NFC is not great as Dallas remains the No. 3 contender behind the Eagles and 49ers at many of the top online sportsbooks.Â
The Cowboys have an over/under of 9.5 wins, but after back-to-back seasons with 12-5 records spoiled by the 49ers in the playoffs, this would be a major disappointment to not surpass that number.
We look at one of the top teams in the conference as they try to advance further in Mike McCarthy’s 4th season on the job.
Significant Modifications
The Texas team has a new offensive coordinator that is sure to be a controversial hire, but it may be the right move at this point for the offense. They also will be hoping for some positive regression on the turnover and injury front, which may be all a team with a roster of this quality needs to take that next step. Â
Brian Schottenheimer Replaces Kellen Moore
There was a time when many thought Kellen Moore would follow in former Dallas coach Jason Garrett’s footsteps. He could assume the role of offensive coordinator in Dallas, cut his teeth for a few years, then eventually take over as head coach just like Garrett did in 2010 when owner Jerry Jones fired Wade Phillips during the season.
But Moore is out after 4 years on the job, taking his mind to Los Angeles to help Justin Herbert and the Chargers. The Cowboys are replacing him with Brian Schottenheimer, who was already serving as a consultant for the team last season. He has been an offensive coordinator for multiple NFL teams, but his most successful stop was recently in Seattle for the 2018-20 seasons.
Like Father, Like Son
The reputation of Schottenheimer is that he favors the run too much and is conservative, which are hallmarks of his father, the late great Marty Schottenheimer, and his coaching style. However, this Schottenheimer’s results are more tied to the quarterback he has under center. When a young Mark Sanchez is your quarterback on the New York Jets in 2009-11, you would prefer to run the football too.
But when Schottenheimer had a talented quarterback at his disposal, he has seen some fine results. He had Chad Pennington doing well with the 2006 Jets, a playoff team. The 2008 Jets were 8-3 at one point behind veteran Brett Favre before he injured his shoulder and had a terrible finish to the season.
The key years are in Seattle where Schottenheimer may have coached the best 3-year stretch of Russell Wilson’s career with 106 touchdowns and 25 interceptions to produce a 107.2 passer rating.
Changing the Style
Are the Cowboys likely to throw less and run more than they did in 2022 with Schottenheimer? Yes, that is a very real possibility. But it also could work out fine if they are going with Tony Pollard from Week 1 on instead of relying on an older Ezekiel Elliott, who remains a free agent after the team released him earlier this year.
Prescott also could improve his deep shots since the team added speedy Brandin Cooks to the receiving corps. Michael Gallup looked slow last year coming off a major injury in 2021, so hopefully he will look more like his old self this year. The Cowboys still have No. 1 wideout CeeDee Lamb, who is coming off his best season with 107 catches for 1,359 yards and 9 touchdowns.
Back in 2019-20 when Moore was starting out as the OC, the Cowboys were relying on Prescott to throw too much to win shootouts. That is not how this current Dallas team needs to operate. This team has a defense that can produce takeaways and great field position, a better running back with receiving ability, and plenty of weapons to give Schottenheimer one of his best offensive units yet.
Positive Regression with Turnovers and Injuries
All the regression talk last year around Dallas centered on the defense getting fewer takeaways for coordinator Dan Quinn. Well, the takeaways only dropped from 34 to 33, which still led the NFL.
This will naturally lead to a talking point of that number finally regressing to the mean in 2023, and it may. But the Cowboys still have one of the best defenses with Pro Bowl players at every level.
Not enough attention is paid to the positive regression the offense should experience after Prescott had a career-worst 3.8% interception rate. That rate was double the typical Prescott season, which is 1.8% or lower for interceptions. For how much people blame quarterbacks for interceptions, they are one of the least consistent stats on a year-to-year basis. They are usually loaded with situational play like having to force things when you are down big late in the game or throwing a Hail Mary at the end of a half, or bad luck on tipped balls.
Better Luck
The Cowboys especially had some bad luck last year with tipped balls, including a deflected interception in overtime to lose the game against Jacksonville. You should feel very confident that Prescott will cut down on his interceptions in 2023.
The offensive line also could stand to have better health this year. Left tackle Tyron Smith only returned to action in Week 15 last year and appeared in 6 games (playoffs included). Granted, Smith is going on 33 years old and has not appeared in more than 13 regular-season games since the 2015 season, but he should do much better than only playing 23% of the snaps for the year.
When the Cowboys get their veterans healthy in Smith and Zack Martin, and left guard Tyler Smith is no longer a rookie, you are looking at a top 10 offensive line, if not top 5.
2023 Schedule Analysis
The Cowboys have what should be considered a difficult schedule. They have to play the AFC East, which could prove to be the best division this year. They also get both of last year’s playoff teams (Bills in Week 15 and Dolphins in Weeek 16) on the road. They also have 3 games against the top NFC contenders (Eagles and 49ers) with 2-of-3 games on the road. They will also face the Chargers (Week 6) with Kellen Moore calling the offense in Los Angles on a Monday night.
But this also is a schedule filled with many good litmus tests for the team to see where it stacks up. Maybe playing the 49ers in a prime-time game in Week 5 will help the Cowboys prepare for a playoff rematch should it come to that. Dallas had to play the 49ers cold the last 2 postseasons with no regular-season matchup since 2020.
With Dallas’ usual mastery of Washington and the Giants, that could be worth 3-to-4 wins again. The Cowboys split with Philadelphia last year, but both teams won against the other’s backup quarterback. Hopefully, we get to see 2 games of Jalen Hurts vs. Dak Prescott this year to really decide the NFC East.
The Pick
But even if Dallas disappoints in some of those tough games, there are enough games on this schedule where the defense should overwhelm the lesser quarterbacks, and the offense should light up the lesser defenses.
The Cowboys winning double-digit games for the 3rd year in a row is one of your best NFL ATS bets to make this season.
Will it lead to a deeper playoff run? That remains to be seen.
NFL Pick: 2023 Dallas Cowboys Over 9.5 Wins (-159) at BetRivers
2022 Recap: Dallas Déjà vu
The Cowboys won 12 games, the defense led the NFL in takeaways, and the team lost in the playoffs to the 49ers with an embarrassing play call in the final minute that instantly became a meme.
That can describe the Cowboys in 2021 and 2022, because they did all those things in both seasons. However, last year’s team looked a bit more realistic as a title contender, especially after Dak Prescott overcame early thumb surgery to return and lead Dallas on one of the best scoring streaks in NFL history. The Cowboys scored at least 27 points in 9 straight games last year to set a new franchise record.
The Rise of Pollard
Part of what led to this leap was the rise of Tony Pollard, a speedier and more effective back than aged veteran Ezekiel Elliott. It is a move some fans have wanted to see for a few years now, but in 2022, the Cowboys finally unleashed Pollard to the tune of 1,378 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns.
The Cowboys joined Buffalo as the only teams in 2022 to finish in the top 5 in scoring on both offense and defense. The defense again mastered the art of takeaways under Dan Quinn, pulling off the difficult feat of leading the league in turnovers in back-to-back years. The defense also looked more trustworthy to get stops the traditional way too, and Micah Parsons (13.5 sacks) was a leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year before losing the award to San Francisco’s Nick Bosa.
Goose Egg
But as good as the season was for Dallas, the offense laid a total egg in Week 1 against Tampa Bay and in Week 18 against Washington. The Cowboys also got on a bad turnover run on offense late in the year, and Prescott ended up throwing a league-high 15 interceptions despite missing 5 games. The Cowboys also blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter in Green Bay as Aaron Rodgers was up to his old tricks of owning Dallas late in the game. But the Cowboys also blew a 17-point lead in the 2nd half in Jacksonville, and Prescott had a deflected pick-6 in overtime to lose the game.
The blown leads, turnovers, and ugly regular season finale all led to the hysteria that the Cowboys would blow the first playoff game in Tampa Bay, facing an 8-9 team that was secretly terrible with Tom Brady having his worst season.
But for one night, the Cowboys removed all doubt in a 31-14 rout where Prescott was fantastic and put the final nail in Brady’s career. Well, they did not erase all doubt, because kicker Brett Maher did manage to set a record by missing 4 extra points in a row, but it was a good playoff win for Dallas, the team’s first since the 2018 season.
Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me
That set up a divisional-round game in San Francisco, but like the year before, the Cowboys could not crack a top defense. In fact, things were worse as there was no furious 4th-quarter rally this time.
Prescott was intercepted twice, Pollard was ineffective and injured early, and the defense allowed George Kittle to dominate on a go-ahead drive. The Cowboys could not find the end zone late in the 19-12 loss.
