NFL Pick: 2023 Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins (-134) at BetRivers
If there is a question of whether aliens exist, then the Kansas City Chiefs may have the answer as Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are out of this world. The duo led the way to the team’s 2nd Super Bowl title since 2019, and this one should feel even sweeter.
The 2022 season was supposed to be a step back for the Chiefs, yet they still finished on top of the league thanks to having the best quarterback, the best tight end, and a head coach in Andy Reid who may be the best at his job right now too.
The Chiefs are Super Bowl favorites again this year, but the first order of business is trying to win the AFC West for the 8th year in a row, which would be the 2nd-longest streak in NFL history.
The top-rated sportsbooks like the Chiefs for that too as Kansas City’s over/under of 11.5 wins is tied for the highest total in the league this year. Mahomes has delivered at least 12 wins in all 5 of his seasons since taking over as the starter in 2018. Is this over a lock, or should the Chiefs be worried that the talking points they erased last year will actually come true in 2023?
Significant Changes
The Chiefs say goodbye to a long-time coordinator, and hello to some new receivers, and the defense hopefully matures.
Matt Nagy Replaces Eric Bieniemy
We like to cover the big changes that are going to move the needle for a team this season, but this offensive coordinator change is basically notable only to dispel a myth that it will be important.
When Matt Nagy moved on from the Chiefs to coach the Bears in 2018, Eric Bieniemy was promoted as the new offensive coordinator, so he has held the job for the whole Mahomes run. Bieniemy has constantly been denied a head coaching job elsewhere, but this year he finally took an offer to become the offensive coordinator for the Washington Commanders.
Nagy is back as the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator, though he was already on the staff last year as Mahomes’ quarterbacks coach when he had such a special year. While Nagy gets a lot of grief for a failed stint in Chicago, he gets to work with incredible talent this time.
Also, this offense still goes through Andy Reid. Bieniemy did not call plays. Nagy at least started calling plays in the 2017 season when Alex Smith was the quarterback.
The Chiefs will be just fine here without Bieniemy. Losing left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to the Bengals is a bigger deal, but Donovan Smith from Tampa Bay has plenty of starting experience, but from a coaching standpoint, the Chiefs are not going to skip a beat on offense.
New Receiver Pecking Order
If there is a position group that could hold the Chiefs back this year, it would be the wide receivers. Tight end Travis Kelce is still likely going to be the team’s No. 1 target, but he turns 34 this season. If he starts to slow down or gets injured, then the Chiefs could be in some trouble.
At least in 2022, the Chiefs had a veteran like JuJu Smith-Schuster to serve as the de facto No. 1 wide receiver. He is gone this season. If the new WR1 is Kadarius Toney, that could be problematic as you cannot trust him to brush his teeth without getting into the injury list. Toney is not a reliable player by any means. Think of him more like a deluxe Mecole Hardman, who also is not returning to the Chiefs this year.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling returns as a deep threat, though he and Mahomes did not quite connect that great on big plays last year. Skyy Moore was a difficult target to throw to as a rookie, but maybe he will make a 2nd-year leap.
Rashee Rice is a 2nd-round rookie who has received some buzz this offseason. Even Justyn Ross has been getting hype on social media this summer, but that feels like wishful thinking for an undrafted free agent who hasn’t been able to stay healthy.
Reid and Mahomes will make this group work, and there is potential for the receivers to be good if Toney magically stays healthy and the young players develop. But there are red flags with this group, and if you need to match score for score with an elite team in the playoffs, then you could see how the Chiefs may come up short this time.
The Defense Rallies Around Chris Jones
It would not be fair to characterize the 2022 Chiefs as “Chris Jones and 10 random guys on defense” but it also would not be far off. The Chiefs played a lot of young players last season, which can explain the mediocre results on defense. They also are losing some more veterans as defensive end Frank Clark and safety Juan Thornhill are gone after winning two rings each with the Chiefs.
Safety Bryan Cook will take over for Thornhill to become the 4th starter on defense from the team’s 2022 draft class. Cook got some experience last year, though he struggled when he did play. The Chiefs drafted Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the 1st round this year, though he is not expected to start in Clark’s place at defensive end right away.
Safety Justin Reid and defensive tackles Chris Jones and Derrick Nnadi figure to be the only defensive starters in Kansas City who were in the NFL before 2020. The defense is still going to be young, and we know the team can win it all with below-average results, but this weakness does make winning an elite number of games harder for the team.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
No team in NFL history has ever won 14 games and found a way to win more games the following season. Only two teams have ever matched 14 wins, and that was the 1989-90 49ers and 2003-04 Patriots, the latter the last team to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
But the Chiefs only need 12 wins to hit their over, which is something they have done 5 years in a row with Mahomes. Now they get an extra 17th game to do it too. The schedule will provide some challenges, though the Chiefs get to host their main AFC rivals (Buffalo and Cincinnati) in December. Despite losing to both last regular season, the Chiefs still finished 14-3, tied with the Eagles for the best record.
The Chiefs also host the Eagles in Week 11, so they get their toughest opponents at home this season. A trip to the Jets in Week 4 could be difficult if Aaron Rodgers is doing well on his new team. This could even be the year the Broncos end their 15-game losing streak to the Chiefs now that Sean Payton is their coach. Some of Russell Wilson’s best moments in a terrible 2022 season were against the Chiefs in close losses.
But even if the Chiefs went 0-3 at home to the Bengals, Bills, and Eagles and dropped a pair of division games this time, they would still have enough to finish 12-5 and hit the over.
Winning another Super Bowl is a different story as a lot has to go right for that to happen. But in just getting through the regular season with over 11.5 wins, the Chiefs are as safe a bet as anyone right now. After what he did last year, how could you dare bet against Patrick Mahomes?
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NFL Pick: 2023 Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins (-134) at BetRivers
2022 Recap: Chiefs in Class of Their Own
The Chiefs have already been to the Super Bowl 3 times in Mahomes’ career, but 2022 goes down as his crowning achievement so far.
This was supposed to be a down year with the offense losing No. 1 wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Instead, Mahomes led the Chiefs to the No. 1 offense, led the NFL in passing yards (1st quarterback to ever do so and win the Super Bowl in the same season) and passing touchdowns, and won his 2nd MVP award after the Chiefs finished 14-3, tied for the best record in the NFL.
This was supposed to be a down year with the AFC West finally having the horses to deal with the Chiefs, yet Kansas City finished 6-0 in division games and basically wrapped things up by Thanksgiving. By the season’s end, Denver fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett, the Raiders ended the Derek Carr era, and the Chargers have new coordinators on both sides of the ball.
No one would confuse the 2022 Chiefs for a dominant juggernaut of a team, because they did need 6 game-winning drives by Mahomes, and that does not include a 17-point comeback against the Raiders in Week 5. But the 2022 Chiefs are the 1st team in NFL history to have a 4th-quarter or overtime lead in all 20 games in a season. Going undefeated was not that far off for this team despite allowing 21.7 points per game (ranked No. 16) with a young defense.
In fact, the Chiefs allowed 25 points per game in the playoffs and still won the Super Bowl. Philadelphia’s 35 points in the Super Bowl loss were the most ever for a Super Bowl loser. The only other team to win a Super Bowl after allowing 25 points per game in the postseason was the Chiefs in 2019, who also allowed 75 points in the 3 playoff wins. Mahomes is just an alien.
Even after suffering a high-ankle sprain in the opening quarter of the divisional round game against Jacksonville, Mahomes still finished the season as Super Bowl MVP, directing the team to wins in all 1-score games. In leading game-winning drives against the Bengals and Eagles, it was a Mahomes scramble that was the key play on each drive, including the penalty for the late hit out of bounds against Cincinnati.
The 2022 season was definitely an opportunity for someone else to step up and win a championship like the Bills, Bengals, or Eagles. But in the end, it was still Mahomes and the Chiefs, and they could field a better roster in 2023.
