NFL Pick: 2023 Los Angeles Chargers Under 9.5 Wins (-104) at BetRivers
The Los Angeles Chargers ushered in the Justin Herbert era in the playoffs in the most fitting way imaginable. After taking a 27-0 lead in Jacksonville in the wild-card round, the Chargers blew the biggest lead in franchise history in a 31-30 loss on the final play of the game.
This is just what the Chargers do, and it is why they are so hard to trust, but the top online sportsbooks give the Chargers an over/under of 9.5 wins, which is the line they have been straddling the last 2 years under coach Brandon Staley with 9-8 and 10-7 records.
Taking the over could see the Chargers return to the playoffs, but the AFC is a very competitive conference where having a top quarterback like Herbert is less of an advantage than it would be in the NFC. As great as Herbert is, the Chargers are just 25-25 in his first 50 starts because you never know when they are going to blow a game they should have won.
Significant Changes
The Chargers get an exciting hire at offensive coordinator, a new weapon for Herbert, but is it the same old story on defense?
Welcome Kellen Moore and More Air Yards
The Chargers took a step back on offense last year under coordinator Joe Lombardi. Not everything was his fault as the injuries played a role, but he was still not letting Herbert air the ball out as often enough.
Kellen Moore is the new offensive coordinator after an impressive 4-year stint in that role with Dallas. He should bring more air yards to the passing game and make better use of Herbert’s skills.
In 2022, Herbert’s average pass traveled 6.4 yards, the 3rd-shortest throw in the league according to Pro Football Reference. Under Moore, Dak Prescott’s average depth was 8.2 yards per throw, which ranked as the 10th deepest.
Herbert is never going to fall out of love with check-downs as long as Ekeler is his back, but he should make better use of his wideouts and tight ends this year under Moore, who will continue running a fast-paced offense like the Chargers had in 2022.
New Wide Receiver
The Chargers used their 1st-round pick on wide receiver Quentin Johnston, the 2nd wideout off the board in this year’s draft. Time will tell if this was a better move than the wide receivers who went in the next two picks, Zay Flowers (Ravens) and Jordan Addison (Vikings).
Johnston had inconsistent production at TCU, but he has that size (6’4”) the Chargers have seemingly favored at wide receiver for decades now. Johnston is not a burner, so he could be more of an intermediate and possession receiver like Allen and Williams. The bonus is he’s younger and will hopefully be durable.
But there will be an argument that Flowers may have opened the offense up more as a high-volume slot receiver with a high catch rate.
Is Anything New With the Defense?
The Chargers were supposed to give Herbert a defense last year, but that failed again with injuries a common culprit for this franchise. The Chargers paid big money for corner J.C. Jackson from New England where he had 25 interceptions in 62 games. He comes to the Chargers and has no picks and gets injured after 5 games. Tough start but he will be back in Week 1 barring any setbacks.
The Chargers also barely saw edge rusher Joey Bosa play after Week 2 last season as injuries got him again. While brother Nick has proven to be the best Bosa in the NFL, Joey is still a much-needed asset for this defense. He had 10.5 sacks in 2021 when he played 16 games.
Khalil Mack led the Chargers with 8.0 sacks last year, though half of that production came in the first 2 games of the season. Mack was credited with just 18 pressures (tied for 60th) in 17 games at Pro Football Reference, a far cry from his Chicago days where he would get 30-to-47 pressures in a season to go along with more sacks.
Linebacker Eric Kendricks joins the defense from Minnesota. He is a solid off-ball linebacker, but the Chargers need more sacks and takeaways on defense. Even just one greatly timed pressure on a 3rd down could be the difference in winning a game and blowing another lead.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
We have every reason to think the Chargers will be better on offense and no reason to think they will have a good defense. Even the players you count on to stay healthy this year are not guaranteed to do so given the injury-luck this franchise has.
But the real reasons to be leaning towards the Chargers not returning to 10-win territory is the schedule and makeup of the AFC. It already is a tough sell with the Chiefs in the division and their mastery of the Chargers in late-game situations. They are not going away this season, and the rest of the division should be better unless you think the Raiders and Broncos will combine to blow 11 4th-quarter leads again. They even blew more leads than the Chargers (3 including the playoffs).
A game like Week 1 against Miami could ultimately decide the final wild-card spot in the AFC, so the Chargers need to come out strong as the schedule does not get easier. They will play the Vikings, Cowboys, Ravens, Jets, and Bills. That means a lot of quality quarterbacks on the schedule who can go score for-score with Herbert, including Russell Wilson if he gets the necessary coaching fix from Sean Payton.
But speaking of the Jets and Broncos, we already chose those teams to be improved and have winning records this year. That can come directly at the expense of the Chargers, who face both.
For that reason, we will take the Chargers to finish under 9.5 wins in the NFL futures market. It will be exciting either way because Chargering does have a lot of entertainment value.
NFL Pick: 2023 Los Angeles Chargers Under 9.5 Wins (-104) at BetRivers
2022 Recap: The Art of ‘Chargering’
If you are not familiar with Chargering, think of it as a team doing everything it can to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Imagine playing your starters deep into a meaningless Week 18 game with your playoff seed locked up only to have one of your key receivers get injured and miss the following week’s playoff game.
The Chargers did that last year with Mike Williams in Week 18. He is an injury-prone receiver to begin with, so playing him at all in a game the Chargers did not need was madness.
Injuries and blown leads were once again the story of another Chargers season. Everything turned for the worse in Kansas City in Week 2 when the Chargers blew a 10-point lead in the 2nd half, and a 4th-quarter lead after Herbert threw a pick-six on a play because his tight end (Gerald Everett) was winded and denied a request to come out of the game.
Herbert also injured his ribs in the game, and when he returned to action the following week, the Jaguars destroyed the Chargers 38-10. Even as Herbert’s ribs healed, he started losing key games from his top 2 wideouts, Keenan Allen and Williams. This took away from the offense’s ability to push the ball downfield, so Herbert fell in love with dump passes to running back Austin Ekeler and rarely tested teams down the field until he had to on 3rd downs or desperate situations.
The result was Herbert’s least efficient season in the NFL and a career-low 25 touchdown passes despite attempting 699 passes. Herbert only had 1 game last season where he averaged over 9.0 yards per attempt, and that was the 30-27 loss to the Chiefs when the defense blew yet another late lead to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Chargers’ Rollercoaster
While blown leads remain a theme for the Chargers, we do not give enough attention to the close games they do win, which is why they are always near .500. Herbert still led 5 game-winning drives last season, including a win over Arizona where the decision to go for a 2-point conversion paid off in a 25-24 win.
It was only late in the season when the Chargers were 6-6 that the defense started to show some life after another disappointing season. The defense allowed 11.0 points per game during a 4-game winning streak to lock up a playoff berth.
But with Williams injured again in Week 18 and out for the Jacksonville playoff game, the Chargers had their work cut out for them against the team they lost to by 28 points in Week 3.
But in the playoffs, the Chargers intercepted Trevor Lawrence 4 times and built a 27-0 lead. It was too good to be true. Lawrence ended up throwing 4 touchdowns in the comeback win, the 3rd-largest comeback in NFL playoff history.
Herbert was neither great nor bad in the playoff loss. But it was another case of a game the Chargers should have won and did not. That is Chargering at its finest.
