Top NFL Pick: 2023 Miami Dolphins Under 9.5 Wins (-125) at BetRivers
The Miami Dolphins were able to make the playoffs in coach Mike McDaniel’s first season, but there was still some disappointment that Tua Tagovailoa’s breakout year should have led to more for this team.
But a series of injuries ended Tagovailoa’s season prematurely, and the Dolphins lost in Buffalo in the wild card round with a 3rd-string rookie quarterback making the start. Now the team must hope for better health in 2023, but they already have been bit by the injury bug in training camp with a big name going down.
The Dolphins have an over/under of 9.5 wins at many of the sportsbooks. They are right on the fringes of the playoff race with a deep AFC featuring the Bills and Jets in the division alone. But the Dolphins have a lot of wild card competition as well as only 7 teams can make the tournament.
Significant Changes
The Dolphins have a new defensive coordinator with some new pieces to utilize on that side of the ball. But the offense may not be as improved.
Vic Fangio to the Rescue?
Usually, a new head coach will hire his own coordinators, but there have been cases where a coach kept someone in their role because of exceptional work. When the Steelers hired Mike Tomlin in 2007, he kept defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau in the same role that he would hold through the 2014 season.
But Josh Boyer is no Dick LeBeau, even if they do share some traits of getting shredded by elite quarterbacks. That is why it was surprising to see McDaniel keep Boyer as his coordinator for the 2022 season, but he is correcting that mistake now after a season that saw the Dolphins rank 24th in scoring, 24th on third down, 30th in takeaways, and 23rd in the red zone.
Miami hired long-time defensive veteran Vic Fangio to run the defense. Fangio has many successful stops in his career, and last year saw him work as a consultant to a Philadelphia defense that had 70 sacks and was in the Super Bowl.
Fangio does not guarantee a top-10 defense by himself of course, because the players and talent still matter as much as anything. But the Dolphins should absolutely be improved on this side of the ball now with a better defensive coach running the show.
Jalen Ramsey Injury
The Dolphins are a top-heavy team in the sense that they have great talent at some of the most important positions in football, including wide receiver (Hill and Waddle) and edge rushers (Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb). But what they lack is depth behind those players, so if there is an injury to even one, that could tank the whole unit and weaken the team.
Cornerback is a position where Miami actually had a plan to be both deep and talented this year, but that is a question mark now after Jalen Ramsey suffered a meniscus tear in training camp. The Dolphins traded for the star in March, and his surgery for his injury has him beefing with doctors online about how fast he can recover and return to the field.
Some suggest Ramsey will not be back until December at the earliest, but we will have to see what happens. He will likely miss some of the key early-season games the Dolphins have with the Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, and Bills. The Dolphins also could be without Ramsey in Kansas City against Patrick Mahomes in Week 9 before the bye week.
Pairing Ramsey with veteran Xavien Howard, who did not have a stellar 2022, was a good idea by the Dolphins. But we will have to wait to see it. Fortunately, the Dolphins got an impressive rookie season out of Kader Kohou, an undrafted free agent. According to Pro Football Reference, he only allowed 6.1 yards per target, a full 3 yards better than
Howard allowed (9.3). Kohou also allowed fewer touchdowns (3) than Howard did (4) despite facing 31 more targets.
Miami could play 2nd-round rookie Cam Smith in a significant role until Ramsey is ready to go.
Looking for Another Receiver
While few defenses can contain the speed of Hill and Waddle, things are going to look shaky if one of their hamstrings (or worse) is injured and they have to miss time. That is why receiving depth matters, and top-tier offenses usually have a 3rd option (or more) that can be reliable and productive.
But for Miami, the No. 3 (Trent Sherfield) and No. 4 (tight end Mike Gesicki) receivers on this team last year have both gone to new teams. They were the only other Miami receivers (tight ends included) with more than 150 yards last year.
The Dolphins added Braxton Berrios from the Jets, but he has never been a quality target in his career. Maybe Cedrick Wilson can do more after having just 136 yards on 12 catches last year after coming over from Dallas, where he was better than that (602 yards in 2021).
Specifically at tight end with Gesicki gone, the Dolphins could be starting Durham Smythe, a 4th-round pick in 2018 who has averaged 10.2 receiving yards per game in his career with Miami.
Hill and Waddle are great together, but it seems unlikely that this offense can get to elite status without developing another receiver.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
You have to go back 10 games to find the last time Miami beat a team that was not starting a backup quarterback. That starter was Justin Fields, the least valuable passer in 2022 for a 3-14 Chicago team that secured the No. 1 pick in the draft. Before that, it was dropping Jared Goff and the Lions to a 1-6 start, but at least Goff had a good year.
The point of mentioning these games is that the schedule largely dictated if Miami won or lost last season. We cannot say with any certainty how the schedule will break this year because injuries can change everything, as fans know.
But on the surface, the Dolphins should be in store for a tougher division battle because of Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets. With Rodgers, the Jets are not losing an 11-6 game to these Dolphins like they did in Week 18.
The Dolphins will not play the Jets until the day after Thanksgiving, in Week 12, so by then, Rodgers should be comfortable in his new surroundings. The Dolphins also do not get to host Buffalo until the final game of the season, so there will not be a heat advantage like they had last year when it was 90 degrees in Miami’s upset win.
The Dolphins also have to travel to Baltimore in Week 17, and Lamar Jackson will hopefully be healthy to avenge the Ravens blowing a 35-14 lead in the 4th quarter to the Dolphins last year.
This schedule is tough throughout, because the Dolphins also have to play both Super Bowl teams (Eagles and Chiefs) on the road in a span of 3 weeks before the bye.
Since drafting Tua, the Dolphins have finished with 10 wins and twice with 9 wins. The over/under line (9.5 wins) is right in line with that, but due to the expectations of the Jets being the team that leaps forward in the AFC East, the best bet for your NFL picks is to take the under for Miami this year.
2022 Recap: Let’s Go Streaking
It is hard to draw up a season like the one Miami had where you alternate winning and losing streaks in lengths of 3 and 5 games like the Dolphins did for the first 16 games. Some of this was the quarterback injuries as the Dolphins managed to see 3 different starting quarterbacks get injured in 3 straight games early in the season.
But even when Tua Tagovailoa returned from his concussions, he lost his last 4 starts when the Dolphins started playing greater competition like the Chargers, 49ers, Bills, and Packers. You can question the greatness of some of those teams, but it’s no doubt harder facing them than the likes of Houston, Cleveland, or when the Steelers and Lions were experiencing 2-6 starts.
The top-end talent of Miami was hard for the bad teams to deal with. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle worked together wonderfully as the fastest wide receiver duo in the league. Hill had the most receiving yards (1,710) of his career, an impressive feat considering he played with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City.
But you could argue the Dolphins should have done more to develop a 3rd receiving weapon. The running game, which was infrequently used as Miami ranked 31st in carries, was also disappointing and not up to what you would expect from someone coming from a Kyle Shanahan offense. The defense also disappointed again.
In the end, the season was a step in the right direction, but Tagovailoa will have to stay healthy for the full run for the Dolphins to maximize their success. They pushed the Bills in all 3 matchups last year, and they may have been able to win that road wild card game if they had more experience than rookie Skylar Thompson at the position that afternoon.
NFL Pick: 2023 Miami Dolphins Under 9.5 Wins (-125) at BetRivers
