Saturday’s Top MLB Picks
- Red Sox ML (-120) at SBK
- Nationals +1.5 (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Diamondbacks ML (-160) at Bet365
Saturday is a great day to bet on baseball. The schedule is filled with interesting games, and the public is out in full force, throwing their money around and giving us the edges we need for our MLB picks to be profitable in the long run.
After taking a closer look at the MLB projections at OddsTrader, we’ve determined that each of the following three baseball picks for Saturday is worth betting the standard single unit of your bankroll, starting with a high-profile matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox
Saturday, May 13, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Spring is in the air, at least in Beantown; we’re looking at mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70s, with 10-mph crosswinds that shouldn’t impact our moneyline pick much.
The OddsTrader computers say Boston’s going to win this one 6.5 runs to 5.7. That’s probably too high in a game with a posted total of 9.5, but even if we shrink the projected gap between the two teams to, say, a half-run, it’s still worth betting on the Red Sox at -120 or longer.
The high-scoring projection is understandable, though. Both of Saturday’s starters have unsightly ERAs:
- Chris Sale, Red Sox: 6.37 ERA
- Steven Matz, Cardinals: 5.70 ERA
Unsightly, yes, but Earned Run Average is one of those stats that can deceive humans and computers alike. Runs get scored in all sorts of weird ways that the pitcher can’t control, which is why sharp bettors use more advanced stats, like the xFIP (expected Fielder Independent Pitching) numbers we often quote in this space. Let’s take another look at Saturday’s starters:
- Chris Sale, Red Sox: 3.51 xFIP
- Steven Matz, Cardinals: 4.13 xFIP
These numbers suggest Matz has performed better than the public may be thinking – but not as well as Sale, whose awful ERA has been inflated by an insane .372 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Even when you take the anti-shift rules into account, Sale and the Red Sox should see some positive regression with those seeing-eye base hits.
While Matz (.336 BABIP) is due for some better luck himself, Boston is the wrong place to be looking for it. Current Red Sox hitters have a combined .950 lifetime OPS off Matz, who spent 2021 in the American League with the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have a grand total of six at-bats versus Sale, with just one hit: a home run by Nolan Arenado. That technically adds up to a .833 OPS, but there’s a lot of noise in that stat, and Sale should have the overall advantage against a team that’s not familiar with his stuff.
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-120) at SBK
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Saturday, May 13, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park
We’re going run line with our second baseball pick; the computers have the Mets just scraping past Washington 4.7 runs to 4.6, which looks about right, so we’re obviously getting more value taking the Nats +1.5 (-135) than betting New York at -135 betting odds on the moneyline.
This game might get rained on, by the way. Saturday’s forecast calls for a 70% chance of precipitation with temperatures around 70 degrees, and light winds blowing down the first-base line at Nationals Park. Again, not a big concern unless you’re betting those MLB totals.
Washington should also have the pitching advantage here with Trevor Williams (4.94 xFIP) starting opposite Joey Lucchesi (4.54 xFIP), at least according to FiveThirtyEight, who has Williams rated 14 Elo points higher.
FanGraphs does have New York’s bullpen ranked 10 spots higher than Washington’s at No. 15 according to WAR (Wins Above Average), so remember, don’t get greedy with that bet size – one unit will suffice.
MLB Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, May 13, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
Our last pick is a classic value bet on the Diamondbacks, who are still the most profitable team in the NL West at 20-18 and plus-3.96 betting units, even if they’ve fallen into second place in the standings behind the 23-15 L.A. Dodgers.
The Snakes remain ahead of fourth-place San Francisco (17-20, minus-2.88 units), and the computers say they’re going to thump the Giants 6.2 runs to 4.2 in the hot desert heat – although the roof will reportedly be closed at Chase Field, so maybe those numbers need to be adjusted downwards for both teams.
We’re still hammering Arizona at -160. They’ve got the mighty Zac Gallen (2.33 xFIP) going up against Anthony DeSclafani (3.62 xFIP), and while DeSclafani’s no tomato can, he’s got his work cut out for him this Saturday. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-160) at Bet365
