Picks Summary
- Angels (-135) at Bet365
- Astros-Guardians Under 8 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Reds-Cardinals Under 9 (-125) at Bet365
Is Shohei Ohtani the best baseball player since Babe Ruth? There haven’t been too many people in the history of Major League Baseball to excel both as hitters and pitchers; aside from Ruth, the only fair comparison to Ohtani might be Bullet Rogan, who played for the Kansas City Monarchs in the 1920s.
Having one All-Star doing the work of two gives Los Angeles the advantage this Friday when they host the Seattle Mariners – and the computers at OddsTrader have sniffed out this advantage with their projections for Friday’s busy slate.
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, June 09, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
It’s difficult to overstate how valuable Ohtani is to the Angels. Here’s a quick look at his key stats on the mound and at the plate:
- Pitching: 3.30 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 12.17 K/9
- Hitting: .353 OBP, .904 OPS, 16 HR
After 12 starts, Ohtani is pitching a bit better than he did during his breakthrough 2021 MVP campaign, but his hitting hasn’t been quite as potent.
He’ll be doing both in all likelihood this Friday; the Angels (33-30, minus-0.37 betting units at press time) haven’t always given their superstar the support he needs, but this year, they’re 8-4 behind Ohtani for 0.85 units in earnings.
Seattle’s Lineup
Luis Castillo (3.27 xFIP) could use some of that help. The Mariners are just 6-6 (minus-2.75 units) in his 12 starts thus far, leaving them below .500 on the season at 30-31 (minus-8.02 units). And the OT computers have them losing again this time by a score of four runs to 3.5.
Runs should definitely be hard to come by with these two starters in action, and two quality bullpens waiting in the wings. However, current Halos have a combined 1.036 OPS off Castillo, going 11-for-33 with five home runs – and that’s with Ohtani hitless in five at-bats.
The Mariners, meanwhile, have managed a mere .495 combined OPS (14-for-78, two HR) off Ohtani the pitcher. Seattle may have the best pitching in the majors, but they’re going to have a difficult time getting back to the playoffs with this batting lineup, never mind beating the Angels this Friday.
MLB Pick: Angels (-135) at Bet365
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, June 09, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
It’s another Under bet on the Astros (Under 31-30-1), who are just about to start Thursday’s series finale with the Toronto Blue Jays as we go to press. They went Under both Tuesday and Wednesday with the Jays outscoring Houston 8-3.
Looking ahead to Friday’s opener versus Cleveland (Under 38-20-3), the OT computers like the defending champs to prevail 4.4 runs to 2.5, giving us more than a full run between the projections and the actual lines at the MLB odds boards.
Are the Computers Right?
The computers might be overstating the difference between these two clubs. Cristian Javier (2.84 ERA, 4.17 xFIP) hasn’t been all that great for Houston, compiling a 10-2 team record despite having the Over at 9-3. Logan Allen (2.76 ERA, 3.78 xFIP) also has room for some negative regression.
Plus, we’re looking at what should be clear skies over Cleveland – except for the haze from those forest fires north of the border, that is. Neither team hits very well, especially the Guardians at No. 29 on the FanGraphs WAR charts; it won’t help their cause this Friday if the air is thick with smoke.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, June 09, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
We’ve got room for one more Under in our MLB picks, and we’re looking at Friday’s tilt between the Reds (Over 35-28) and Cardinals (Under 32-29-2) as our target. The OT computers have Cincinnati coming out ahead 4.2 runs to 4.1, which again looks a bit stingy; maybe it has to do with Reds starter Ben Lively (3.03 ERA, 3.90 xFIP) and his .227 BABIP against in a small sample size of four appearances.
Then again, Jordan Montgomery (4.23 ERA, 3.98 xFIP) hasn’t been quite so lucky this year, judging by his .328 BABIP against. But this could be a difficult matchup for Montgomery. Current Reds have a combined 1.068 lifetime OPS off the seventh-year southpaw, going 12-for-33 with a pair of homers.
Perhaps that light breeze blowing down the first-base line at Busch Stadium will help us out. Otherwise, we’re counting on the two bullpens (No. 2 in WAR for the Reds, No. 11 for St. Louis) to back us up if the starters run into any turbulence. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-125) at Bet365
