There are so many solid options on the board for today’s MLB slate. Here are three props to consider for today’s slate of games.
Picks Summary
- Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) at BetMGM
- Matt Vierling Over 1.5 Total Bases (-112) at BetRivers
- Wander Franco Over .5 Total Bases (-198) at Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Sunday, July 02, 2023 – 02:35 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Corey Seager (Texas Rangers)
Shawn Dubin will get the start for the Astros. We don’t have many stats to go off of with Dubin. He’s only pitched against 25 batters this season. Against those 25 batters, Dubin has allowed a .208 ISO and wOBA of .427. Against lefties, it’s worse. He’s allowed a .250 ISO and wOBA of .378.
Corey Seager is one of the best lefties in baseball. He’s hit a .324 ISO and wOBA of .499 against his last 79 righties faced. Seager has struck out only 13.9% of the time against righties and has hit 56.7% of hard contact against righties in the last month. He’s also hit only 33.3% of grounders and over 23% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Dubin is allowing 50% of hard contact, 50% of fly balls, and inducing only 40% of ground balls since coming into the majors against lefties. He’s also allowed a 10% barrel percentage and has a low whiff and swinging strike percentage against lefties.
MLB Prop Pick: Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) at BetMGM
Detroit Tigers vs. Colorado Rockies
Sunday, July 02, 2023 – 03:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
Matt Vierling (Detroit Tigers)
Connor Seabold will get another start for the Rockies. He’s watched his last 87 batters hit a .244 ISO and wOBA of .368 over the last 30 days. Seabold has been awful against lefties and righties. He’s only limited walks against those batters during the last month.
You can attack Seabold with righties or lefties. It truly doesn’t matter. Especially knowing that Seabold is pitching in Coors Field. Against righties, he’s allowed over 30% of line drives and 33.3% of fly balls. He’s not getting a high whiff percentage and giving up 40% of hard contact.
Meanwhile, Matt Vierling is hitting a .276 ISO and a wOBA of .535 against his last 34 righties. Vierling is a righty himself but has struck out only 20.6% of the time against righties in the last month. He’s also hit just 36.4% of ground balls and over 27% of line drives and fly balls against righties in the last 30 days. On top of that, Vierling has smacked 54.5% of hard contact in the last 30 days.
Vierling will likely bat in the middle of the order for the Tigers tonight. He won’t be lead-off or in the top three, but I still like his chances to earn at least four plate appearances. If he doesn’t earn multiple bases against Seabold, other pitchers in Colorado can serve up some good pitches for Vierling.
MLB Prop Pick: Matt Vierling Over 1.5 Total Bases (-112) at BetRivers
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, July 02, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays)
Luis Castillo is known as an all-star pitcher. He’s a premier pitcher for the Mariners. However, he hasn’t succeeded against lefties in the last month. Lefties are hitting a .276 ISO and wOBA of .391 against him in their last 64 plate appearances. That’s bad.
Castillo has allowed a .216 ISO and wOBA of .323 on the season. That’s also not good. Meanwhile, the Rays’ lefties have combined to hit a .202 ISO and woBA of .351 against righties over the last month. It starts with Wander Franco. He’s a switch-hitter who will bat from the left side today. Franco has hit a .169 ISO and wOBA of .351 and has struck out only 13.2% of the time against righties in the last month.
Castillo has earned only 20.3% of strikeouts against lefties in the last month and has allowed over 30% of fly balls and close to 24% of line drives against lefties in the last 30 days. He’s also given up close to 30% of hard contact against lefties in the last month. But even on the year, Castillo has watched lefties hit 45.7% of hard contact against him.
Franco rarely strikes out. He should be able to put the ball in play and make solid contact against Castillo. Castillo has struggled against lefties throughout the season, and Franco usually doesn’t miss against pitchers who have trouble against lefties.
MLB Prop Pick: Wander Franco Over 0.5 Total Bases (-198) at Caesars Sportsbook
