The NCAAF bowl season gets off to a running start this weekend with two Friday games and a Saturday schedule of a half dozen bowl games. Some big names get their games in early, as four teams from the Power Five will be in action, including one game that matches up a pair of Power Five opponents. Here’s a look at the three games involving Power Five teams, as we go coast to coast, from Boston to Vegas to Inglewood, California.
Louisville and Cincinnati face off in the inaugural Fenway Bowl, with the teams playing in the shadow of the Green Monster, an area usually patrolled by Red Sox outfielders. Oregon State and Florida give us a Pac-12 vs. SEC showdown in the Las Vegas Bowl. And Washington State takes on Fresno State in the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl.
With the NCAA’s changes to rules, allowing players to profit on their names, images and likenesses, as well as a loosening of regulations on the transfer portal, predicting bowl games requires handicappers to look at far more than records, depth charts and injury reports.
College football essentially has full-blown free agency, and top players on every bowl team have either already departed through the transfer portal or are planning to sit out their bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Fenway Bowl
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Louisville Cardinals
Saturday, 17 December 2022 – 11:00 AM EST at Fenway Park
Louisville had its first winning season in three years, going 7-5, 4-4 in the ACC. After becoming the first Group of Five team to make the College Football Playoff last year, Cincinnati came back to earth a bit, going 9-3, 6-2 in the American. And neither team will look much like the ones that produced those regular season marks.
For starters, their coaches are gone. Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell departed for Wisconsin, and the Bearcats replaced him with Louisville’s Scott Satterfield. None of the coaches switching schools will be participating —for either team— in the bowl.
Louisville will also be without quarterback Malik Cunningham, who produced the majority of the Cardinals’ offense this season. He is opting out after battling an injury all year. For Cincinnati, starting quarterback Ben Bryant is out with a foot injury, and four of his top five targets are also gone, with two receivers transferring and a receiver and tight end opting out for the draft.
With the coaching staffs and offenses gutted, this will be a game where they may be drawing up plays on the field, and the team with the best defense should win. That would be the Bearcats, who led the AAC in scoring defense and total defense.
NCAAF Pick: Cincinnati +1.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Las Vegas Bowl
Florida Gators vs. Oregon State Beavers
Saturday, 17 December 2022 – 02:30 PM EST at Allegiant Stadium
This is a marquee first-weekend matchup where “motivation” might be the keyword in determining the outcome. Oregon State had one of its best seasons in recent memory, going 9-3, 6-3 in the Pac-12 and finishing in the top 15 in the AP poll. Florida went 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC and lost its last two games.
This game is a reward for the Beavers and the end of a sour season for the Gators. The play/don’t play decisions of the respective rosters reflect that. Only two Oregon State contributors are out and one, corner Rejzohn Wright, is due to a thumb injury. Tight end Luke Musgrave is opting out to prepare for the draft.
Florida, meanwhile, has seen mass defections. Starting quarterback Anthony Richardson won’t play. Backup Jalen Kitna was dismissed from the team following his arrest, meaning that the third-stringer to make his first career start in the game.
He may regret the opportunity, as he’ll be without the Gators’ top lineman, O’Cyrus Torrence, who also opted out, and the team’s second-best receiver in Justin Shorter, also opting out. The defense also has several players out, most notably linebacker Ventrell Miller.
Look for Oregon State to feast on the depleted Gators and roll past the double-digit line.
NCAAF Pick: Oregon State -10 (-109) at SugarHouse
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Washington State Cougars vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Saturday, 17 December 2022 – 03:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
Fresno State won the Mountain West with a 9-4 record, 7-1 in the conference. The Bulldogs are on an eight-game winning streak and will face Pac-12 middle-of-the-road team Washington State. The Cougars went 7-5, 4-5 in conference play.
Just like in the Vegas Bowl, motivation is the keyword here. Wazzu is the bigger name from the bigger conference, but Fresno wants to be here. The only Fresno player not expected to take part in the game, finished 12th on the defense in snaps this season, so all major contributors should be in uniform.
Meanwhile, the Cougars have lost three of their top four receivers to injury and transfer, and their top three linebackers to transfer and opt-out.
Two linebackers will make their first college start in the bowl, and the team is using its bowl practices to shift a strong safety to the linebakcer unit to try to create depth. And Washington State also lost its defensive coordinator, who took another job at Arizona State.
NCAAF Pick: Fresno State -3.5 (105) at FanDuel
