We’re through the looking-glass here, people: Our Week 4 Best Bets went a perfect 3-0, our third sweep of the season, leaving our NFL picks at a mouth-watering 10-2. The New York Jets (+3.5) and Seattle Seahawks (+5) both won straight-up, while the Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) still covered despite their epic come-from-ahead loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Life isn’t always this easy. But we do have three more tasty football picks heading your way for Week 5, and the first might be worth a considerably large bet.
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 09:30 AM EDT at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Teams Analysis
Here’s another opportunity to put our money on Big Blue. The Giants (3-1 SU and ATS) have made big strides under new head coach Brian Daboll. They still have room to grow, checking in at No. 23 overall (No. 16 offense, No. 23 defense) on the Week 5 DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, but this is miles ahead of where they were last year.
Meanwhile, the Packers (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) are lucky to be above .500 right now. They came back to beat the New England Patriots 27-24 in overtime last week as 10-point home faves, and QB Aaron Rodgers said after the game that winning like this wasn’t “sustainable.”
He’s right. Green Bay finds themselves in ninth place (No. 8 offense, No. 17 defense) on the DVOA list, and Rodgers himself ranks No. 15 among starting quarterbacks with at least 60 passes thrown. He won’t be winning another MVP award at this rate.
We should note that Giants QB Daniel Jones (ankle) and back-up Tyrod Taylor (concussion) were both hurt in last week’s 20-12 victory over the Chicago Bears as 3-point home faves on the NFL odds.
That’s not ideal, but Jones may be able to suit up this week, and if he isn’t, Davis Webb might be an improvement coming off the practice squad.
NFL Pick: Giants +8.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Field
Teams Analysis
At first blush, this may seem like a risky NFL pick with the Texans (0-3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) yet to win and the Jaguars (2-2 SU and ATS) on the rise. But that’s part of the reason why Houston has so much betting value here.
Another part is the great deal we’re getting at SBK. Most of the online sportsbooks at press time have the Jaguars laying seven points, with the vigorish anywhere between -107 and -115. Not only are we getting a full point more, but we’re also crossing the magic number 7.
Let’s take a moment to recognize Houston’s special teams as well. They rank fifth overall in DVOA, with much of that value coming on punts; Cameron Johnson has pinned 11 of his 20 attempts inside the 20-yard line with zero touchbacks.
The Jags are performing quite well in most facets of the game, but they only rank No. 16 on special teams. This is one of those things that old-school handicappers love to pounce on, and at this price, they’re right to do so.
NFL Pick: Texans +8 (-114) at SBK
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium
Teams Analysis
Our last pick is a total, and it’s almost as juicy as our first two picks. The key here is the Cardinals (Under 3-1), who just can’t seem to get their offense going; they rank No. 22 overall (No. 25 pass, No. 14 rush) in that department, with Kyler Murray at No. 20 on the DVOA charts and barely performing above replacement-level.
Murray is probably better than that in real life. But the offensive line in front of him has been whittled down by injuries, and the list grew last week when LG Justin Pugh hurt his elbow in their 26-16 win over the Carolina Panthers (Under 44). Pugh is questionable for Week 5, as is PK Matt Prater (hip).
The undefeated Eagles have split the totals down the middle at 2-2 thus far, home and away, and they’re equally good on offense and defense through four games. But their special teams are near the bottom of the pile at No. 30 overall, with glaring weaknesses in the return game and with PK Jake Elliott, who’s 4-of-5 on field-goal attempts and 13-of-14 on extra points. Small sample size, perhaps, but every point counts. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Under 49 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
