Our top NFL picks finally ran into some turbulence in Week 3, but there’s even more betting value coming at you in Week 4.
Earlier This Season…
It was the best of times; it was also kinda lousy. We’re talking about Week 3, where our upset alert picks did big business again, but our best bets couldn’t keep their undefeated streak going. We dropped two of those three picks to sit at 7-2 on the season.
That’s still about as good a start to the 2022 campaign as we could have hoped for. And if we’re reading the tea leaves correctly, there’s a ton of betting value on the NFL odds board for Week 4 – provided you’re willing to take a leap of faith with the New York Jets again.
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium
Make no mistake: The Jets (1-2 SU and ATS) are a pretty bad football team. They’re No. 29 overall (No. 19 offense, No. 32 defense) on the updated DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, and they’re coming off a 27-12 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals as 6.5-point home dogs, where LB Quincy Williams suffered a sprained ankle and is now listed as week-to-week.
There’s not much going on with the Steelers (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS), though. They’re in the middle of the DVOA pack at No. 16 overall (No. 16 offense, No. 12 defense), but Pittsburgh has dropped back-to-back games since LB T.J. Watt tore his pec on Opening Day.
Oddly enough, safety Minka Fitzpatrick was put in concussion protocol after last Thursday’s 29-17 defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Browns (-4.5 at home). The extra time off makes it more likely Fitzpatrick suits up this Sunday, but this news came out of nowhere – he played the full game against Cleveland without any obvious distress.
With Watt on the shelf and several of his teammates like Fitzpatrick listed as questionable, we’re willing to recommend the Jets at more than a field goal, on what should be a relatively cool and breezy afternoon in Pittsburgh.
NFL Pick: Jets +3.5 (-107) at SugarHouse
Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field
It cost us a payday on the Under, but Seattle’s offense came to life last week against the Atlanta Falcons – and the Seahawks (1-2 SU and ATS) almost took this contest before falling 27-23 as 1-point home faves on the closing line.
That performance gives Seattle some hope as they prepare to take on the Lions (1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS). The gap between these two teams isn’t nearly as big as it is for that Jets-Steelers matchup, as the Seahawks find themselves at No. 21 overall (No. 12 offense, No. 30 defense) on the DVOA charts, eight spots behind the Lions at No. 13 (No. 7 offense, No. 22 defense).
Detroit also got put through the shredder in their 28-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings (–6.5 at home). Here are the two key injuries from that contest:
- RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle)
- S Tracy Walker (Achilles)
There’s a chance Swift will play in Week 4, but he’s pretty banged up, and there’s a noticeable drop-off from Swift to RB Jamaal Williams.
Losing Walker for the season will definitely make life easier for Seattle this Sunday.
NFL Pick: Seahawks +5 (-108) at SBK
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium
Here’s another chance to fade the Bills (2-1 SU and ATS) after they suffered their first loss of the season, a 21-19 final versus the Miami Dolphins as 4-point road faves. That turned out to be our only winning NFL pick for Week 4, but it was satisfying nonetheless.
The Ravens (2-1 SU and ATS) are way better than Miami on paper. In fact, they’re almost as good as Buffalo. Football Outsiders still have the Bills at No. 1 (No. 6 offense, No. 2 defense), but Baltimore isn’t very far behind in third (No. 1 offense, No. 18 defense).
The only tough part of this pick is deciding whether to grab Baltimore as 3.5-point road dogs or at +155 on the moneyline. It’s not too difficult a decision, though. Wizard of Odds says +3.5 is about the same as +165, so taking the points should be the right call in this situation.
Just to make things a little more difficult for the Bills, CB Christian Benford broke his hand during last week’s game against Miami. WR Jake Kumerow also left the field with an ankle injury, and several players suffered heat-related issues as well. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Ravens +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM
