Top NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame Over 8.5 Wins (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish added Sam Hartman at quarterback for year two under Marcus Freeman. How far can Hartman take the Indiana-based team?
Notre Dame Preview
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish took some time to develop in Marcus Freeman’s first season as head coach. But the Fighting Irish ultimately finished with a respectable 9-4 record in 2022.
Freeman figures to be the head coach at Notre Dame for a decade. But it took time for fans first to appreciate the former defensive coordinator. Notre Dame lost to Marshall, 16-14, earlier in the season and almost lost to California.
It’s unclear if Notre Dame will stay independent with all the college football conference shifts happening. They’re currently in the ACC in all other sports besides football and would probably stay with the ACC full-time if the football program decided to join a conference.
Anyway, Notre Dame has momentum. The Fighting Irish won seven of their last eight games, only losing to USC, which had Caleb Williams under center.
Notre Dame also beat South Carolina in the Gator Bowl, which was impressive.
Don’t sleep on the Fighting Irish. A 10-win season is always in the cards for this program. It would only be one more win than last year, which isn’t much more. Expectations are high at Notre Dame.
Can the Fighting Irish put together a big season?
The Offense
Notre Dame landed one of the best, if not the best, quarterbacks in the transfer portal. Sam Hartman left Wake Forest for an opportunity with Notre Dame.
The former offensive coordinator, Tommy Rees, left for Alabama, and the former quarterback from Notre Dame, Tyler Buchner, followed.
Hartman could’ve gone into the NFL Draft. Instead, he took his talents to Notre Dame after throwing for 3,701 yards last season. Hartman added 38 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions while finishing with a 76.2 QBR. His experience and leadership should help improve the Notre Dame offense.
Notre Dame will bring back Audric Estime as running back, although Logan Diggs transferred to LSU to be with Brian Kelly. Still, Estime added 920 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging six years per rush. He’s going to be fantastic in this offense alongside Hartman.
The Fighting Irish also figure to have an excellent passing game with Hartman. He’s got Jayden Thomas and Tobias Merriweather, who could both break out and have huge years.
On top of that, Notre Dame has one of the best offensive lines in the country. Joe Alt and Blake Fisher are tremendous tackles, and Zeke Correll will be at center. They’ll be fine, especially with a veteran quarterback like Hartman playing behind them.
The Defense
The defense allowed 329 yards and 23 points per game last season. But the unit heading into 2023 looks even better than last year.
The linebacker group comprises JT Bertrand, Jack Kiser, and Marist Liufui. They were the three top tacklers on the program. Notre Dame added Javontae Jean-Baptiste from Ohio State and will feature Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills on the defensive line.
The secondary will be lights out if the pass rush does its job. They’ve got Benjamin Morrison, who added six interceptions last season. They’ll also bring back Cam Hart, who has so much potential but was put in the injury list last year.
With the addition of Thomas Harper from Oklahoma State, the safety position looks much better too.
Notre Dame Win Total
Notre Dame has a win total of 8.5, juiced to -140 betting odds on the Over.
Notre Dame won nine games last season, and I think they’ll be much better in Freeman’s second year as head coach. It’s just that the schedule for Notre Dame is so much harder this year.
The Fighting Irish will take on Navy and Tennessee State to start the season. That’s two wins. They’ll take on NC State next, on the road, which will be challenging, but I’ve got Notre Dame earning a road win there.
At 3-0, Notre Dame will face Central Michigan, which should be another win on the schedule.
At 4-0, the Fighting Irish will take on Ohio State on September 23. That will be a tremendous battle. Would you rather have an inexperienced Kyle McCord or a very experienced Sam Hartman at quarterback?
Notre Dame can sneak in a home win against Ohio State to go 5-0. They’ll then face Duke on the road, which should be another win.
However, the Fighting Irish will lose some steam. They’ll take a road loss to Louisville and a home loss to USC. They’d be 6-2 with a home game against Pittsburgh. I like Notre Dame to earn a win over Pittsburgh, but I think a road game against Clemson will be super challenging.
Notre Dame would be 7-2 with Wake Forest and Stanford left on the schedule. Sam Hartman will face his former team at home. That’s a win. The Fighting Irish should also be able to add a win over Stanford.
That’s nine wins. But I was generous and added a win against Ohio State but gave Notre Dame a loss to Louisville. We’ll see how that plays out, but nine wins are totally reasonable for Notre Dame this year.
NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame Over 8.5 Wins (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook
